Chen Changsheng, director of the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that under the Sino-US trade war and China’s economic slowdown, China should tolerate a rebound in overall debt levels, and this year’s macro leverage ratio will certainly rise.
According to Reuters, Chen Changsheng said that China’s macro leverage ratio reached 250.3% in 2017, but it has steadily declined since the second quarter of last year. Chen Yulu, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, said in March that the macro leverage ratio fell by 1.5 percentage points in 2018.
Chen Changsheng feels that it is impossible for China and the United States to reach an agreement immediately. A long-term trade war will hit China’s economy this year. At present, the risk of a rapid rise in the leverage ratio of the residential sector is high. The authorities should focus on curbing debt risks.