Goldman Sachs analysts report that as China’s remarks have become more and more tough in recent days, it is expected that the Sino-US trade war will be further upgraded, including the introduction of tariff and non-tariff measures. The United States has a 60% chance to impose tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese exports to the United States, which was 40% higher than the earlier estimate.
US President Trump announced last week that he would impose tariffs on Mexican goods. The bank expects the United States to impose a 5% tariff rate of 70% on June 10 and a 50% probability of a 10% tariff increase on July 1. Goldman Sachs also reduced the possibility of confirming the US-Canada trade agreement from 60% to 35%
In addition, the bank lowered the US economic growth forecast for the second half of the year by half a percentage point to 2%, and significantly increased the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates.