The US economy may slow down. The market estimates that the Fed may change the direction of interest rate hikes and even turn around interest rates. Patek Wealth Management commented that the United States is expected to raise interest rates twice in the next few months, but it may not happen in June.
Thomas Costerg, senior economist at Patek Wealth Management, and Lauréline Chatelain, a fixed-income strategist, pointed out that interest rate cuts in June may be too early, as they believe the Fed needs to wait for US trade policy and business investment to be clearer.
It is expected that the fourth quarter will be added in the first quarter of next year.
The bank pointed out that there are three major factors that determine the timing of interest rate cuts, namely, US President Trump continues to support tariff measures, business investment slowdown in the coming months, and other economic conditions, especially inflation expectations.
The report estimates that interest rates will be met in the fourth quarter of this year, and the next rate cut will be the first quarter of next year.
Patek Wealth Management estimates that the June meeting will have a slight change in rhetoric and prepare for the subsequent reduction, and the G20 summit in Osaka at the end of June will have an important impact.
On the US debt side, the report maintains a “neutral” view, arguing that the current yield is relatively high, and the chances of a sharp rise in the next few months are lower.