Investment bank Goldman Sachs issued a report that Sino-US trade disputes escalated. It is expected that the United States will impose a 10% tariff on the remaining US$300 billion of Chinese imports. The RMB will fall below 7 in three months, see 7.05, and forecast for 6 months. And after 1 year, they are 6.95 and 6.8 respectively.
Goldman Sachs analyst Danny Suwanapruti’s team believes that the United States will impose a 10% tariff on the remaining Chinese imports by the end of July. As the Sino-US trade war has slowed US economic growth and the risk of US interest rate cuts is increasing, it is believed that after the US and China finally reach a trade agreement, the United States may withdraw tariffs at the end of this year or early next year.
Goldman Sachs believes that China will not use currency depreciation to offset the impact of tariffs, but adopt a depreciation of the exchange rate, more stimulus measures to stimulate domestic demand, and allow economic growth to slow down a number of ways, and the sharp depreciation of the renminbi may further exacerbate trade tensions. Therefore, the renminbi will only break a small 7 and then fall back to the level below 7.