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The enlightenment of the cease-fire war between the US and Mexico in nine days

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On May 30, the United States borrowed illegal immigration from the border, threatening to impose tariffs on all goods in Mexico in a progressive manner, shaking the political and business circles in North America. However, after nine days of struggle, Trump announced an agreement on June 7 and will stop increasing tariffs indefinitely.

Mexican President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador announced the “victory” on the following day, but he was criticized by domestic multiparty leaders for using the national security forces to strengthen the control of the southern border under the threat of the United States.

Trump announced on Twitter on the 7th that “the new agreement with Mexico has made everyone very excited.” The following day, he was immediately “faced” by the New York Times, saying that the content of the agreement had already been discussed before the tariff threat, making it special. Rump had to continue to be a “keyboard warrior” and immediately fired at the “fake news media”.

Mexico, which has already pursued China in the first four months of this year and became the largest trading partner of the United States, has nearly 80% of its exports dependent on the United States, while exports account for about 37% of the Mexican economy. In the face of US tariffs, Mexico, which has suffered from a recession in the economy, seems to have only the possibility of bowing its head. President Lopez said: “We have not won all, but without a tariff, we can declare victory.”

Mexico’s “fake concessions”?

The agreement reached between Mexico and the United States has two main points. First, Mexico is willing to accept immigrants who have filed refugee claims across the southern border of the United States on “humane grounds” and provide them with services such as work, medical care and education in Mexico to await the results of the US review. Second, Mexico will use 6,000 National Guards to centrally curb organized illegal immigrants on the southern border of Mexico.

The United States has also set a 90-day “results review” deadline: if the total number of illegal immigrants on the US-Mexico border has not declined, Mexico must take further action; otherwise, the United States may renew its tariff threats.

When the North American auto industry and American consumers were shocked, the New York Times quoted sources to open fire on Trump, saying that Mexico had promised a similar “concession” long before the tariff threat – former Homeland Security Minister Nelson ( Kirstjen Nielsen) announced in early April measures to increase the return of refugee claimants to Mexico – disguised accusations of Trump’s tariff threats are just a tossing of the market panic for a week.

Trump heard the words of the mobile phone keyboard and published nearly 10 Twitter tweets. In addition to accusing the New York Times of “being failing,” “fake news,” and “corruption,” he even claimed that “if Obama has His border issues and economic achievements, those corrupt media have long been shocked and admired, and even immediately announced the development of national holidays to commemorate.

He also pointed out that Mexico has promised to immediately increase the purchase of “our great patriotic farmers” agricultural products – do not know whether he confused the two different disputes between China and the United States and the United States and Mexico – so that people from all walks of life can not understand. The Mexican authorities have not confirmed this, and its ambassador to the United States means “no trade, the trade will increase”.

Trump’s eager response shows his fundamental fears and worries about the trade truce and agreement.

“Toss fruit without” fear of fear

What he fears is the constant toss of no actual results.

In the US-Mexico agreement, as Mexico’s Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard stressed, Mexico did not accept the US request to turn Mexico into a “safe third-party country.” The label will give US legal power to refuse to accept it. “Central American immigrants who did not make a refugee claim to Mexico in advance.”

Mexico’s concessions are only voluntary to accept immigrants who are making refugee claims to the United States, and return them to Mexico for results. The so-called “Migrant Protection Protocols” was originally proposed by former Homeland Security Minister Nelson at the end of last year. In addition to judicial disputes in the United States, it may be prohibited by the courts. Mexico can also see you at any time. The political winds changed and the arrangements were stopped.

At the same time, according to Reuters, the border between Mexico and Guatemala was “as usual” on the weekend after the agreement was reached – the raft of refugees crossed the border and there was no border defense that Mexico promised to strengthen.

In the context of the Republicans in Congress or the rebellion to prevent Trump from collecting tariffs on Mexico, Trump’s ceasefire agreement on the US-Mexican tariff war seems to have really failed to pay for anything.

The cost of this toss is very high. The “tariff threat” is something imaginary, and it is not the same as the tariff itself. But what I imagine can change people’s behavior: Since Trump took office, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which is extremely important to the North American automotive industry chain, has been abolished, and the total investment in the North American auto industry has been three. The year is in a downturn, which is two times lower than the 2015 figure. It is obvious that manufacturers are waiting to see the break of trade uncertainty.

The US-Mexico Agreement (USMCA) signed by the United States, Mexico, and Canada last year is only a modernized version of the North American Free Trade Agreement and has added a few provisions that may be beneficial to the United States, which will bring stability to the industry. However, at this moment, Trump has again raised a tariff war against Mexico. Although the war has been closed, the truce is not an armistice. The implementation of the US-Mega-Canada Agreement is more uncertain and the auto industry continues to suffer.

Worries about “insufficient strength in the United States”

The cause behind “tossing without fruit” is what Trump is worried about – even in a single-on-one negotiation situation, the existing strength of the United States may not be enough to force people and give in to other countries, leading to Trang. After a few strokes and seven injuries to the “opening of the bow” in various countries, people hurt and hurt, but they did not get any results.

China still sticks to its position, Google warned against the ban on Huawei, and the US Treasury Bureau’s senior officials demanded a suspension of the Huawei ban. It is an economically long-term dependence on exports to the United States. It seems that it does not have to buy the US account.

Trade is not a zero-sum game in nature. Although Mexico’s economy relies on exports to the United States, American consumers rely heavily on Mexican imports: Mexican beer accounts for nearly 70% of total US imports, and its various vegetables account for 60% to 90% of total US imports. Gold-plated metals, which can be used in various electronic products, account for 98.2% of the total US imports.

These types of goods will directly hit the purchasing power of the average American consumer. According to the US Department of Commerce, if 5% tariffs are imposed on all imports in Mexico, US consumers will pay an additional $17.3 billion a year, and if tariffs increase to 25% of Trump’s promise, the figure will rise to 87 billion. Dollar.

The Trump’s trade threat to Mexico’s non-trade requirements, in addition to being highly reprimanded by the former WTO Director-General, also because there is no strategic contradiction between China and Mexico, and there is no Republican Support – they will also fight for general consumer votes in the coming year – even Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will openly sing against Trump.

Under all kinds of pressure, Trump had to save his face and temporarily accept the “compromise” but was exposed by the media.

In the face of the fear of “tossing without fruit”, Trump, who has already declared war, has to be tough; but when it is tough, the strength of the United States may not be enough to withstand the trauma caused by such seven-injury, so Trump may not Not tough on the scalp to face the endless tossing ending, had to rely on the even bead gun on Twitter to send himself to save.

The outcome of the nine-day truce is still affordable for Trump; however, on the more significant international trade dispute, Trump can’t slap the scalp to face the toss and the unsuccessful accusation, it seems that the US The authority built by the strength of the year bears unprecedented challenges.

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