5 years ago

For the G20 Xi special meeting, Trump self-directed

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It is more than a week before the summit of the G20 Summit of Japan, and whether “China and the United States held a meeting of heads of state during the summit” was aroused.

The Trump administration of the United States recently launched a public relations campaign, saying that if Chinese President Xi Jinping does not attend the G20 summit in Osaka, the United States will impose tariffs on the remaining more than $300 billion in Chinese goods. However, this is a false proposition. Since the first G20 summit in 2008, the top leaders of China will attend without exception. This is undoubtedly the Trump administration once again set aside for China.

In modern diplomatic relations, no major power leader has threatened to force leaders of another country to meet with them. Of course, for Trump, this kind of breaking the traditional diplomatic bottom line is nothing new, and its aides have to cooperate with him to play this public relations drama.

On June 6, Trump said in an interview in France that he would decide whether to further impose tariffs on the US$300 billion Chinese exports to the US in the next two weeks or after the G20 meeting in Japan.

On Monday (June 10), Trump accepted a telephone interview with the US CNBC Squawk Box program, saying that if Xi Jinping does not attend the Osaka G20 Leaders Summit held at the end of June, the United States will Add tariffs on more Chinese goods. For a time, similar to “Xi Jinping’s failure to attend the Osaka G20 Leaders Summit, Trump will immediately impose tariffs on more Chinese goods” quickly made headlines in the international media.

Self-directed “I don’t attend” false topic

This is what Trump wants. On the one hand, he is pretending that the United States is willing to negotiate during the stagnation of trade negotiations, and continues to deduct the crime of negotiating failure or negative negotiation to Beijing. On the other hand, it is concocted that Xi Jinping is not willing to attend. The illusion of being forced to attend.

If you watch the recording interview on the day, Trump’s tone is largely guided by the one-sided guidance of CNBC financial show host Becky Quick. In a telephone interview, Quaker mentioned to Trump the “Study Conference” during the G20 Leaders Summit in Osaka, but the way of asking questions highlighted the false proposition that “If Xi Jinping does not attend the G20 Summit”.

In the face of this possibility thrown by reporters, Trump responded in a rebound manner, saying that if “President Xi” is absent, he will be surprised that the United States will impose tariffs on more than 300 billion goods in China.

In other words, after the CNBC financial host threw out the wedge of “Xi Jinping did not attend the G20 summit,” Trump said the option “If President Xi does not attend, he will immediately increase taxes.”

It turned out that the CNBC correspondent in Beijing asked the Chinese Foreign Ministry whether there was a special meeting during the G20 summit in Osaka. The latter did not give a positive reply, which led to the reporter’s and the host in Washington with enough imagination. , throwing such a boring question to Trump. Subsequent reports from various media were mostly separated from the context of the entire dialogue between Trump and Quaker.

The aides continue to push the “deduction”

Since Trump throws out the false topic of “If Xi Jinping does not attend”, the White House aides have used this as a keynote to emphasize the consequences of Xi Jinping not attending the G20. In order to reach a trade agreement as soon as possible, Trump has publicly mentioned plans to meet with Xi Jinping since February this year, and continues to this day. The G20 summit held at the end of this month is the best time for the two sides to meet in the stalemate of the trade war, Trump Nature can’t ask for it.

Perhaps in order to further “remind” the Chinese government, Trump’s aides have recently made public statements. Last Thursday (June 13), the strongest trade hawker of the United States, Peter Navarro, told the Fox Business News that Trump’s trade tariffs are causing losses to the Chinese economy, not only weakening China’s manufacturing industry. And let more Western companies leave the “communist country.” He also said that it is necessary to remind the American people all the time that China has long been economically plundering the United States through the theft of intellectual property rights, network intrusion and manipulation of the exchange rate.

Even the relatively modest US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who advocated an agreement with China as soon as possible, has become tougher. On June 8, he told CNBC that the progress of China-US trade disputes depends on the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Japan. Trump will decide whether to impose tariffs on China after the meeting.

On the following day, Mnuchin sent a message on Twitter, mentioning that during the G20 Finance Ministers meeting in Japan, he and the Governor of the People’s Bank of China, Yi Gang, had a frank and “constructive” discussion on trade issues. The post was attached with a smile with Yi Gang. Photo. However, Mnuchin stressed that the two had only had a general discussion and had nothing to do with the stagnant China-US trade negotiations.

On Thursday (June 13), Trump’s economic adviser Larry Kudlow also said at the Peterson Institute for International Economics that Trump strongly hopes to work with the G20. Xi Jinping met and warned that if Chinese leaders do not attend the summit, there will be serious consequences. The United States will further take action against Chinese goods.

Trump will repeatedly emphasize the threat of tariffs when it comes to China-US trade negotiations. This is Trump’s inherent way of thinking. No matter what the Chinese leaders do or how to do it, Trump will not abolish this threat as long as it does not meet US expectations. In Trump’s view, his trade tariffs have hurt the Chinese economy. In order to solve China’s domestic economic difficulties, Xi Jinping should of course meet him.

However, China did not disclose any meaning of the meeting. Not only did the Ministry of Foreign Affairs not respond positively to questions from CNBC correspondents in Beijing, Kudlow also confirmed in the above speech that China and the United States have not yet formally communicated to hold the “Convention” at the G20 Summit in Osaka.

Don’t over analyze China’s silence

Anyone who pays attention to Chinese politics will understand that the Chinese direction is that the official statement should be said to be eloquent, so it is only publicly confirmed after everything has been finalized, and once confirmed, it will not be unwarranted. Therefore, in the face of all kinds of verbal temptations issued by the United States, the Chinese side has never been determined, and the outside world does not have to be over-inferred.

From the “Hainan Boao Meeting” option at the beginning of the year, to the later rumors of Xi Jinping’s visit to the United States, and then to the recent G20 summit, Trump looked forward to the meeting of the head of state for a long time. However, in Trump’s view, the facilitation of such meetings must be achieved through frequent and constant tariff threats. This is why both the White House hawks and the doves have consistently emphasized the continued effectiveness of tariffs.

In fact, Chinese leaders have never missed an important international conference such as the G20, and they will not refuse to attend because of the current China-US dispute. For China, the G20 multilateral summit has its own agenda and should not be China and the United States. The bilateral issue between the two sides is “successful.” In addition, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs rarely gives a positive reply to the speculative question of Western journalists. Chinese officials generally tend to announce relevant arrangements and details at the appropriate time when the summit is approaching.

Trump has always prided himself on his unpredictability as an advantage, in order to make opponents like China guess the next step in the United States. However, China still acts according to its own habits and rhythms. This practice of static braking has made the game between China and the United States completely different.

Neglected G20 Summit Spindle

It can be said that the US government and the media have always been good at manipulating and guiding public opinion, and have a right to speak far better than China in the world. Trump’s self-directed and staged the speculation game “If Xi Jinping does not attend the Osaka G20 Summit” is also a very clever approach, trying to continue to lead public opinion to the direction that is not conducive to China.

When Xi Jinping met him, he could be packaged by the White House as “he came because he was afraid of adding customs duties.” If Xi Jinping did not see him, he could be packaged as “Beijing has no negotiating sincerity and refused to solve trade problems.” In any case, Trump has already found a step for himself.

Last Monday (June 10), Trump gave a “more positive or optimistic” reply to the “Study Conference” held during the G20 summit in Osaka during a telephone interview: “I think he (Xi Jinping) will go. I think we plan to have a meeting.” Later, Trump praised Xi Jinping as a strong, intelligent and amazing person. He also mentioned: “I think he (Xi Jinping) will attend. I have not heard the news that he did not attend. We are looking forward to a meeting.” In the end, Trump gave a reply to the threat of tax increase if “I don’t attend Xi Jinping.”

On the same day, some media learned from US officials in Osaka that Trump is expected to continue the mode of meeting with Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Argentina last year. However, the outside world is not expecting such meetings, and believes that at most, as in the meeting at the end of last year, the trade negotiations will be restarted.

In any case, what China should do and do is to continue not to argue with it, not to fall into the chaotic public opinion field created by the other party, but still follow its own habits, and to arrange for the “study meeting” that may be held. And less than all things are currently not publicly confirmed. At the same time, prepare for the main agenda of the G20 summit.

After all, the G20 multilateral summit will not be kidnapped by China and the United States. This is the most basic respect for the host of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and other leaders of the participating countries. Since the inaugural G20 summit in 2008, Chinese leaders have never tried to be absent. This time the Osaka G20 Summit is no exception.

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