Todd Bishop
A week before the G20 summit in Osaka, the Chinese side announced that President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the local government from June 20 to 21 at the invitation of the North Korean authorities. This is the first time that Xi Jinping has visited the DPRK since he was the president of the country. It is also the fifth “golden association”.
When he learned that Kim Jong-un was seeking renewed peace talks with the United States, Xi Jinping was invited to visit the DPRK at this critical moment, and this has become a matter of course.
Jin Zhengen suffering from nowhere
Since the Vietnamese “Tenjin Club” in February has failed to reach any agreement, the DPRK has always taken a positive attitude and hopes to maintain Trump’s interest in the DPRK nuclear issue. According to Trump, Kim Jong-un once again wrote to him on the 10th of this month, showing that he is willing to resolve the DPRK nuclear issue through talks and convey goodwill. Trump has repeatedly said that he has the opportunity to meet with Kim Jong-un since the Vietnam Special Olympics.
This year, North Korea has been experiencing a food crisis. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Food Program issued a new report in May that North Korea is experiencing the most severe crop failures in a decade. The report estimates that four out of every 10 North Koreans are currently affected by food shortages, and 10 million people across the country are expected to go hungry. The Korean Central News Agency reported that the Vietnamese government had shipped a shipment of goods to North Korea’s Nanpu Port on the 13th, which was believed to be helping the DPRK to alleviate the food shortage crisis. In the face of economic sanctions, North Korea has been unable to cope with domestic economic needs. Therefore, Kim Jong-un is very eager to negotiate with the United States.
Therefore, the “Study Conference” that is likely to appear at the G20 summit in Osaka will be an indirect method for Kim Jong-un to formally express his “mind” to Trump in addition to writing a letter.
Xi Jinping’s decision to visit the DPRK at this time is also generally regarded by the outside world as a game related to China and the United States. It is “China is playing North Korea.” In fact, this visit is the first visit of Xi Jinping to the DPRK. The bilateral issues between the two countries and the two parties are equally important. The “American factor” is only one part of it.
Having said that, considering that the timing of the third summit of the US and the DPRK has gradually matured, the next round of the Korean-Korean summit will be staged at any time, and Xi Jinping has not yet visited South Korea, and the visit to Korea definitely needs to visit North Korea, so Xi Jinping immediately visited North Korea. It should be a very suitable time, and “how to coordinate with Kim Jong-un to jointly respond to the United States” should also be one of the topics.
“North Korea” in the trade war
From the perspective of the Chinese side, Kim Jong-un’s attitude is also good for China’s wrestling in the Sino-US trade war. Since Trump is actively preparing for the presidential election in the coming year, he hopes to deliver in the first half of the year that he can properly handle geopolitical diplomacy and increase his bargaining power for the next year’s election campaign. This is an example. The North Korean nuclear issue is also the same. After Kim Jong-un’s continual release of the suggestion of holding a “special fund meeting”, for Trump, in order to write down his own merits on the North Korean issue, he may be willing to accept some of North Korea’s requests.
At this time, China’s role is particularly prominent. After all, without China’s participation, the US and North Korea issues are difficult to resolve. Although China does not necessarily want to “play North Korea” subjectively, Kim Jong-un’s “consignment” will objectively make the United States aware of the importance of China’s role and, to a certain extent, affect the negotiations between China and the United States.
North Korea is still not a priority for Trump
This also illustrates another reality. Because the resolution of the DPRK nuclear issue involves China and the United States, the operation is very complicated. The Persian Gulf crisis, the US-Mexico relationship, etc. have the opportunity to serve as the “political achievements” of the presidential election in the coming year, and to tighten the diplomatic operation issues of supporters’ votes. In comparison, the DPRK nuclear issue is naturally not the only foreign affairs that Trump is primarily dealing with.
