Since the end of February this year, Vietnam’s “Texan Club” has ended without fruit. After months of stalemate between the United States and North Korea, the two heads of Trump and Kim Jong-un’s meeting at the Panmunjom in the Korean-Korean border at the end of June have brought the two countries back to work. Opportunity.
However, where to start is still the biggest problem. Even if the direct meeting between the two heads of state can improve relations, it is impossible to solve problems through symbolic meetings. The two countries also need to find the actual road map and starting point.
Zheng Gan, an expert on South Korea’s North Korean issue, wrote in Hong Kong 01 that the two countries need to reach an agreement on the direction, the method, the schedule, and the corresponding measures in the process of denuclearization.
Zheng grew up as the research planner of the Sejong Institute of Korea.
The original title of this article: The successful conditions for the denuclearization consultation on the Korean Peninsula: an umbrella agreement for the objects, methods, schedules and corresponding measures for denuclearization
Translator: Jia Chaonan
In order to overcome many difficulties, the agreement to achieve a complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula through the summit meeting between the DPRK and the ROK and the US and the DPRK in 2018 will first require the targets, methods, schedules, and denuclearization of these countries. The corresponding measures in the process of progress have reached an agreement in the general direction.
If we reach an overall agreement on the objects, methods, schedules, and corresponding measures for denuclearization in the US-DPRK substantive meeting in the future, it is difficult to expect substantial progress in the denuclearization of North Korea and the improvement of US-DPRK relations.
North Korea’s denuclearization targets nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, nuclear weapons manufacturing facilities and facilities, nuclear weapons carrying means (mispiles), nuclear scientists and technicians, and so on. The US government regards all the weapons of mass destruction in North Korea as targets of denuclearization, and it is unclear whether North Korea will count biochemical nuclear weapons into the object of negotiation. Therefore, the United States and the DPRK should give priority to reaching an agreement on the object of non-nuclearization.
Regarding the object of denuclearization, North Korea recently expressed its position unilaterally, suggesting that it may consider negotiating the abolition of the Yongbyon nuclear facility.
When Jin Yingzhe, vice chairman of the North Korean Workers’ Party Central Committee, visited Washington in January this year, he mentioned to the US that he only abolished the Yongbyon nuclear facilities, suggesting that the Yongbyon nuclear facility is the “all” of the North Korean nuclear test. In this regard, the US government is worried that North Korea will only abolish the Yongbyon nuclear facilities in terms of denuclearization.
The DPRK Council of State referred to the denuclearization of the US Special Representative Jin Hezhe in the process of preparing for the summit meeting of the US-DPRK summit in Hanoi. He also said that Chairman Kim Jong-un had mentioned it, but avoided the object, level and method of denuclearization. discuss. At the second US-DPRK summit meeting, Chairman Kim Jong-un also showed that he only discussed the abolition of the nuclear facilities in Yongbyon, which made the United States and the international community increasingly doubt the sincerity of North Korea’s denuclearization consultation.
No one can now predict North Korea’s completion of the first phase of denuclearization – how long it will take to abolish the Yongbyon nuclear facility. Therefore, regarding the denuclearization negotiations, the US and the DPRK will resolve the disputes one by one in a long period of time. The DPRK’s position is to let the parties recognize the status of the factual nuclear power, which is unacceptable to the United States.
In the process of consultation between the United States and the DPRK, in addition to the abolition of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities, the United States should include the abolition of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles that threaten its security, and include it in the umbrella agreement. The United States can believe in North Korea’s denuclearization will. Therefore, the US and the DPRK want the denuclearization negotiations to proceed smoothly. It is necessary for the two countries to discuss the overall object of North Korea’s denuclearization in the actual meeting.
In the future US-DPRK practical meeting and summit meeting, a general agreement should also be reached on the method of denuclearization. How to abolish North Korea’s nuclear weapons, nuclear materials and medium-range missiles, how to deal with nuclear scientists and technicians is even more difficult to reach an agreement than the abolition of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities.
North Korea hopes to abolish nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and medium-range missiles within North Korea. The United States hopes to ship nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and medium-range missiles to the United States for abolition. But if the United States does not provide North Korea with fairly superior material compensation, the plan that the United States hopes will be difficult to achieve. Therefore, the United States and the DPRK should look for compromises, such as transporting North Korea’s nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and medium-range missiles to third parties such as China or Russia to abolish them.
If North Korea has the will to “completely denuclearize”, then the US and the DPRK should actively negotiate a denuclearization schedule and reach an agreement. If North Korea’s denuclearization begins with the “nuclearization measures for the abolition of +α at the Yongbyon nuclear facility”, when will this measure be completed, and when other non-nuclearization measures will be completed, the US and the DPRK should reach a more specific Agreement.
The United States should be convinced that letting North Korea participate in denuclearization negotiations and actively abandon its nuclear power is more than a loss for the United States.
Therefore, if North Korea abolishes the uranium enrichment facilities in the Yongbyon nuclear facilities and other areas, or abolishes intercontinental missiles and nuclear warheads, the United States should also lift some sanctions. According to the denuclearization measures taken by North Korea, it is necessary for the United States to give a list of which sanctions to ease or lift. In this way, for the denuclearization of North Korea, the United States and the DPRK can share their interests.
If the United States sticks to the tough stance of “cannot lift the sanctions before North Korea completely denuclearizes,” it is difficult to expect the denuclearization negotiations to succeed.
If the United States lifts its sanctions against the DPRK, North Korea should put all nuclear-free and missile-free targets, such as nuclear weapons and missiles, at the negotiating table in addition to the Yongbyon nuclear facilities to eliminate US concerns.
North Korea wants to obtain security guarantees from the United States, normalize relations, and conclude a peace agreement on the Korean Peninsula. It should specifically list the corresponding measures they want. Then, the United States, the DPRK and the ROK reached a general agreement on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the construction of a peace regime, and the easing of sanctions against the DPRK within 2019, and then fulfilled the agreement at the same time, in parallel or in stages.
In order to prevent North Korea from interrupting the denuclearization process or to retreat in the process of denuclearization, the four countries should write the provisions for the restoration of sanctions into the agreement.
If we want to achieve complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, first of all, there is an urgent need for a framework agreement between Korea and the United States on the objects, methods, schedules and corresponding measures for the denuclearization of North Korea. The part of Korea and the United States that cannot reach an agreement will be negotiated by the South Korean government first, which will reduce the conflict between the United States and the DPRK and reduce the repeated occurrence of North Korea’s non-compliance with the DPRK-ROK agreement.
The US-DPRK summit has been held three times. The Korean government should make maximum use of the collective wisdom of Korean domestic experts in order to propose creative solutions for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Then China, South Korea, Japan, South Korea, Russia and South Korea should also actively promote close dialogue between the objects, methods, schedules and corresponding measures concerning the denuclearization of North Korea.