The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% at the end of last month, the first rate cut in more than 10 years. At that time, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors Powell stated that the interest rate cut is only a medium-term adjustment. However, market participants still expect the authorities to cut interest rates several times. Among them, UBS expects that the authorities will cut interest rates by at least three times and cut interest rates by 0.25% each time.
According to CNBC’s latest report from UBS economist Seth Carpenter, the authorities are expected to cut interest rates by 0.25 per cent in September, December and March next year.
Seth Carpenter believes that the authorities will cut interest rates in September, which is believed to be from the perspective of insurance. In December this year and March next year, interest rate cuts will be reflected in the data showing that the economy is in trouble.
Da Mo plans to cut interest rates 4 times next year
The report also quoted Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner as saying that in order to cope with the deterioration of the economic situation, there is a chance of a recession. It is expected that the authorities will cut interest rates by 0.25% in September and October respectively, and expect to cut interest rates next year. Four times, each time the interest rate cut by 0.25%, the interest rate will fall back to 0 to 0.25%.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist Mark Cabana also pointed out that if the Sino-US trade dispute escalates, then the federal funds rate will have the opportunity to return to near zero interest rates.
