There seems to be some new developments in the China-US trade war. US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in an interview on August 14 that China has not made concessions and the date of the next round of trade negotiations remains undecided. However, the date on which the United States postponed the implementation of tariffs on China is not a concession to Beijing, but “does not want to disrupt the Christmas season.”
Just the day before Rose was interviewed. The United States Trade Representative (USTR) public statement on August 13th indicated that it decided to delay the addition of a 10% tariff on some Chinese goods categories, from September 1st to December 15th.
In addition, based on health, safety, national security and other factors, some Chinese goods can be directly excluded from the tax increase list, and 10% additional tariffs will be waived.
Since US President Donald Trump announced on August 2 that it imposed a 10% tariff on China’s $300 billion in goods, the China-US trade war has escalated again and negotiations between the two sides have been deadlocked. Less than two weeks later, the US announced that it would postpone this decision and exempt some Chinese goods. The US “concession” seems to have turned the China-US trade negotiations.
So, what is the reason for Trump to temporarily “brake” the $300 billion tariff?
According to Trump, “We do this for the Christmas season, so that certain tariffs will affect US consumers. White House trade consultant Peter Navarro also told the Fox Financial Channel that it will delay the collection of some customs. The tax is based on the fact that some US companies have signed purchase contracts with China for holiday season sales, and they have no way to avoid transferring costs to consumers.” Trump and Navarro said “Christmas.” It’s not a matter of mouth, it’s not a casual perfunctory.
We must know that the United States is a big domestic demand country, and its consumption accounts for nearly 70% of its gross domestic product (GDP). It is also one of the important driving forces of the US economy. Every year from Thanksgiving to Christmas (November to December) is the most important shopping season for American businesses, and social consumption during this period accounts for about a quarter of total annual consumption. Most importantly, most of the US consumer goods are imported from China.
Of course, Trump knows the stakes. When the White House increased tariffs on Chinese goods, it would try to avoid adding “tariffs” to consumer goods. Now the remaining chips ($300 billion in goods) have made Trump avoid Can be avoided. But to use up the chips in your hands, you have to pay the price.
The American Retail Industry Leaders Association sent an open letter to Trump in December 2018. According to the letter, more than 41% of apparel, 72% of footwear and 84% of daily necessities in the United States are produced in China. “The tariff on these products will be taxed for every American.”
According to statistics from the American Association of Footwear Dealers and Retailers, in 2017, the United States imported 2.38 billion pairs of shoes from the world, worth $25.14 billion, and only 25 million pairs of shoes made in the United States. Among them, the number of footwear imported from China is the largest, reaching 1.7 billion pairs, worth 14 billion US dollars.
Trump announced in August that it would impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese goods, including a large number of household items and various consumer goods, such as mobile phones, laptops, video games, computer monitors, toys, and some footwear. With clothing and so on. In other words, once tariffs are raised, not only American companies, but consumers will also directly experience the pain of trade wars.
The American Footwear Dealers and Retailers Association has calculated this. The US tariff will increase the price of a pair of Chinese-made boots worth $67 to $30, and the price of a pair of Nike sneakers that cost $160 will jump. Up to $200 or even higher.
Letting the people directly taste the pain of the trade war is a huge threat to Trump. Trump has officially announced his re-election in June and officially entered the general election. If the consumer industry is hit at this time, consumers will be mourned, and it is very likely that it will have a certain impact on his ticket position, which will become a stumbling block to his re-election.
At this time, Trump chose to temporarily brake, which is likely to be forced by the campaign pressure. He also created a “president” image of “thinking of the people who want to be anxious and urgent”, and will give his future re-election campaign. Mass Basis.
Of course, this may also be related to the lobbying of American technology companies. Beginning in June, four US technology companies, Dell, Intel, Hewlett-Packard, and Microsoft, issued a joint statement opposing US President Trump’s inclusion of laptops and tablet devices (hereinafter referred to as “laptops”) for Chinese goods. Tax list.
Not only that, but the four companies also sent an email to USTR asking USTR to remove the laptop from the final tariff list. Based on this, Trump is not excluded from delaying tariffs at this time, and it is also the result of the effectiveness of lobbying by major companies.
In addition to the above, Trump’s postponement of tariffs may also be related to the subsequent China-US trade negotiations. China and the United States were scheduled to hold talks in September, due to Trump’s tariff decision facing cancellation. Trump mentioned on August 9 the possibility of a breakdown in China-US trade negotiations. “We will wait and see whether the talks in September will be held as scheduled. If it can be held, it will be natural. If not, it will be fine. But now it is time for some people to do what we are doing.”
But after Trump announced the decision to postpone the tariff, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He spoke to the US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on August 13. The official of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce also stated that the two sides agreed to call again in the next two weeks.
Judging from this, Trump’s postponement of tariffs at this time is also goodwill for the September talks, easing China-US relations and advancing the next negotiations.