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The second world outside China and the United States is accelerating adjustment

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This year’s G7 summit coincides with the escalation of the China-US trade war.

Donald Trump announced on Twitter that it will raise tariffs on almost all products from China and order US companies to withdraw from China. On August 25th, he said that if he is willing, he may announce an upgrade of the US-China trade war as a national emergency. US Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin said that if Trump declares a state of emergency, he can order the company to withdraw from China. Mnuchin said that the United States and China are already enemies on trade and financial issues.

French President Emmanuel Macron said he hopes the leaders of the seven countries will realize that tensions, especially trade tensions, are harmful to the world.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that his “top priority” for this summit is “global trade situation”. He will persuade US President Trump not to engage in trade wars because trade wars have made the global economy unstable. 

European Council President Donald Tusk called for a trade war to stop, and if the United States used tariffs for political reasons, it would harm the world. He said: “Trade agreements and World Trade Organization reforms are better than trade wars. Trade wars will lead to recession, and trade agreements will promote the economy.”

The G7 has its own many topics to deal with, but it is clear that the shadow of the China-US game is everywhere.

The Group of Seven (G7) summit was held in France on August 24. It was decided that the joint statement would not be issued before the meeting. This is the first time in 44 years that the organization has not issued a joint statement. European Council President Tusk said frankly: “It has become increasingly difficult for us to find common ground.”

Trump’s disagreement with his allies on many issues is the main reason. Following the G7 summit in 2018, it was called G6+1. This year, due to Trump’s meeting with the new British Prime Minister Johnson, the G7 was dubbed G5+2. The G7 continues to spur on the split road.

However, in addition to the split, some countries have shown a strong interest in the G7. Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted in France on August 19 that if invited, Russia is ready to return to the summit. Subsequently, on August 21st, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Zaharova said that Moscow is awaiting specific proposals for inviting Russia to attend the 2020 G7 summit.

Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister who just opened his second term after the election, visited France on August 22. He was also invited by French President Mark Long to participate in this year’s G7 summit. As Modi said at the press conference after the election on May 27, “Regain India’s position in the world order in the next five years.” Modi’s visit is to redefine India’s position in the world order. .

The three-point world is the theory of international relations put forward by Mao Zedong, the former Chinese leader, in the 1970s. Today’s division is still not outdated, the difference is that the composition of each world’s country has changed. The first world, from the United States and the Soviet Union to the United States, is gradually transitioning to China and the United States. The second world was gradually joined by countries such as India and Russia from Japan, Europe and Canada. At the same time, the economic situation of today’s third world countries is no longer the same.

In this context, this year’s G7 summit reflects the realignment of the Second World relationship outside China and the United States.

EU: Re-recognizing who you are, how to do it quickly

Five of the G7 countries are European countries. Although the UK is about to leave the European Union, the EU, represented by Britain, France and Germany, still has an important weight in today’s world, and they are also most sensitive to changes in the world’s pattern.

In 2010, China has completely surpassed Japan, Britain, France and Germany to become the world’s second largest economy. In the foreseeable future, China will surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy. In 2017, India’s GDP reached 2.597 trillion US dollars, surpassing France’s 2.582 trillion US dollars, making it the sixth largest economy in the world. It is widely predicted that India’s GDP will surpass Britain in 2019 and become the fifth largest economy in the world.

According to a study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2023, Indonesia’s GDP will surpass Russia, Brazil, Britain and France to become the sixth in the world.

Although the EU countries such as Britain, France and Germany are important economies in the world, the impact of the development of China, India and Indonesia on the EU’s global ranking is very obvious. Even Russia, whose economic aggregate rank has fallen to the top ten, knows that it wants to enter the top five in the world, thus maintaining its status as a big country. The EU, especially Britain and France, of course understand that the top five of the fall is extremely important for retaining the status of the permanent members of the Security Council. unfavorable. Countries such as India and Turkey have continuously demanded that the reform of the Security Council be based on the strength of these countries. On the other hand, because some of the permanent members of the UN Security Council, such as Britain and France, cannot match the existing economic strength.

Europe and the United States have long shared prosperity and become the center of the global economy. The West they represent has always been the center of the world. Now the EU has fallen from the world’s number one camp, and more countries are crowding in between the European countries and the United States. The EU is very clear about the crisis of today.

First of all, the EU has re-adjusted the relationship with China and the United States, and has placed too much emphasis on the policy state of the United States and Europe and Central Europe. During the Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s visit to Europe in March this year, Mark Long invited German Chancellor Angela Merkel and then European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to meet with Xi Jinping in Paris to talk about the current world. Whether it is Mark Long or Merkel, it must be called Europe and America. The EU leaders said that China has become a global key force and the EU is willing to pay attention to China’s growing influence from a strategic perspective. China-EU relations and European-American relations have gradually become equal. The EU is making every effort to circumvent the strategic hostility that the United States has caused to China, and has quickly shaped the EU into a neutral third party in the midst of a China-US trade war.

Second, the EU quickly freed Europe-Japan relations from its reciprocal exchanges with China and Japan. China and Japan are the two largest economies in the Asia-Pacific region, and the European Union has always been welcoming between China and Japan, betting on both sides. In 2003, the EU established bilateral “strategic partnerships” with China and Japan. In 2013, the EU launched the “Economic Partnership Agreement” negotiations and the “Bilateral Investment Agreements” negotiations with China. Since 2003, the EU has held bilateral summits and business summits with China and Japan almost every year, maintaining parallel contact with China and Japan. However, with Trump taking the stage as a turning point, the EU changed its past policy toward China and Japan. On December 7, 2017, the EU announced the completion of the “Europe-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement” negotiations. On July 17, 2018, the EU and Japan signed the “Europe-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement.” The China-EU investment agreement negotiations still have a long way to go.

The economic and trade friction between China and the United States is not just the nature of trade friction. The game between the parties in the future reform of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is a political game. Japan does not fully trust China in politics. At the same time, it also has the desire to be unwilling to be shackled by China and the United States. The signing of the economic partnership agreement between the EU and Japan is actually an initiative to unite Japan. It is the warmth of the two groups.

Third, the EU-Russia relationship began from hostility to confrontation. Every year, Putin is invited to visit France’s Mark Long to invite Putin to visit France before the G7 summit. The focus of the two-person talks is all about how to deal with the Ukrainian crisis. After Ukraine changed its new president, it is clear that Europe wants to solve the Crimea problem. This is the starting point and key to the improvement of EU-Russia relations. The EU values the future relationship with Russia. Putin met with Merkel in May this year. When talking about trade cooperation between Germany and Russia, Merkel said: The country that is now in line with the strategic significance of Germany is not the United States, but Russia. Merkel said that it is time to end the “ice period of relations with Moscow” and also call on EU countries to maintain good diplomatic relations with Russia and lift the “shackles” between the EU and Russia. “It is in our interest to lift sanctions.”

After World War II, Europe followed the United States and the Soviet Union to begin ideological competition. At that time, the Soviet Union did pose a threat to Europe. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Europe was busy following the results of the US harvesting and squeezing Russia’s geopolitical space, but the Russian threat to Europe, which was actually busy with the Soviet endgame, had long since ceased to exist. Now that Trump has withdrawn from the NATO chip and asked France and Germany to pay more military protection fees, the EU’s military security crisis has soared. Resolving the hostile relationship with Russia is a self-protection strategy that Europe has to adopt in a new security environment. At the same time, under the new global situation, the contradiction between Russia and Europe is not the most important contradiction. As the two major players of the Second World, Russia and Europe need to think hard about how to maximize the benefits. This improvement in bilateral relations is an inevitable choice.

Fourth, the EU actively draws on other emerging powers, such as India. Among the emerging countries, India is very objective in both economic development and economic scale. What is more important is that India does not have a unified united front with China. It is a force that the West can fight for. Mark Long invited Modi to the G7 and actively prepared for the future struggle against China. This is the EU’s second preparation for China.

India: From regional balance to global balance

Modi, who is re-elected with strong political authority and super high support rate, has an extraordinary confidence in India’s internal affairs and diplomacy. Since Modi took office in 2014, the Indian economy has maintained an average annual growth rate of 7.5%, becoming the fastest growing economy in large economies. In 2017, India’s GDP exceeded 2.597 trillion US dollars, surpassing France’s 2.582 trillion US dollars, becoming the world’s sixth largest economy. Indians are full of confidence, and their slogan is to surpass China in 2030 to become the world’s second, and to become the world’s number one in 2035.

On May 27, Modi told the Indian media: “We must unite and have the same goal and work in the same direction to regain India’s position in the world order in the next five years.” On the 28th, Indian Vice President Venkaiah Naidu yelled at the Indian diplomatic mission: India must have a permanent seat on the UN Security Council to ensure that India has an “appropriate representation” on the international stage. . On August 15th, India ushered in the 73rd Independence Day. Modi said that “the economic goal of the Indian economy reaching 5 trillion US dollars in the next five years” must be realized.

The comparison between BRIC, Shanghe and G7 has already existed. As one of the BRIC countries, India joined Shanghe in 2017. Now Modi’s intention to go to G7 is very clear: India is not willing to worsen the dispute with China, and at the same time I hope that India will be regarded as a member of the Chinese camp in the international arena. If the China-Russia-India, US-Japan-India Leadership Summit is a balanced strategy that India has implemented in the Indo-Taiwan region, then participating in the G7 is a symbol of India’s shifting its vision to the world. India not only hopes to become a regional power, but also hopes to become an independent global power and to appear on the international stage.

Russia: Lianhua anti-American and European

After the Crimea entered Russia, Russia was kicked out of the G8. During his visit to France, Putin said that the G8 has ceased to exist and the G20 is playing a significant and practical role. He also said that “Russia should have hosted the G8 summit, but our partners have not arrived. We are always looking forward to our partners. Russia is coming within the framework of the G7.” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Zaharova said on August 22 that the absence of the G8 form was not caused by Russia. If the G8 issue is to be discussed, the G7 member states should first unify their positions before making recommendations. The official implication of Russia is that Russia can return, but there are differences within the G7 regarding the existence of Russia. It is not anecdotal that the G7 has different positions on whether Russia will re-enter the group. Russia’s open attitude towards return is a major change. Why is Russia still expecting the G7 today?

With China-US relations increasingly becoming the most important bilateral relationship, Russia’s hostility with Western countries has not been arrogant. Russia certainly hopes to improve its relations with the West under a new pattern and ease its strategic pressure. After Mark Long came to power, Putin repeatedly showed goodwill to France. In 2014, Notre Dame de Paris had no money to buy a Christmas tree. Russia did not say that the most beautiful Christmas tree in its own forest was airlifted to France. In 2015, Paris suffered a terrorist attack. Police dog Diesel sacrificed in the anti-terrorist operation. Russia immediately sent a police dog Dobrynya to France to express “let us unite to fight terrorism.” After the Ukrainian crisis, Putin visited Germany for the first time in 418 in August 2018. The “North Stream-2” project, the Syrian issue, and the current US foreign policy have forced Germany and Russia to return to pragmatic policies. Russia is seized every opportunity to improve relations with the West, especially in Europe.

Of course, this is not to say that Putin has an illusion about Europe and the United States. Regarding the United States, Russia’s strategic struggle has never stopped. In the unipolar world dominated by the United States, Russia is facing sovereign threats at any time. Although Russia is not the most important opponent of the United States, it is by no means an ally of the United States. The strategic game of uniting China with the United States has been Russia’s main diplomatic line for quite some time. The EU is a party to Russia that can turn enemies into friends. Russia is trying to separate the United States and Europe.

Japan: Shunmei respects Russia and China

China-Japanese relations have shifted from competition to coordination in 2018. Japan has decided to cooperate with China in the third-party market, and even toward the Asian Investment Bank (AIIB) and the “Belt and Road” trend. The basis for the improvement of China-Japanese relations is that Japan recognizes the rise of China. This is the first choice Japan has made under the structural contradictions between China and the United States. After changing its attitude toward China, Japan does not want to be a pioneer in American-made China. At the same time, it is not willing to miss any opportunity to cooperate with China and the United States: it is closer to China in economic terms and continues to rely on the United States militaryly.

However, US National Security Advisor John Robert Bolton made a special trip to Japan on the US military expenses in Japan in July, and gave the US opinion that the US military spending in Japan will increase by five times on the existing basis. And Trump has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from Japan. For Japan, security issues can no longer be solved by relying on the United States. The rise of China has also made Japan feel uneasy. In the future, if the China-Russian alliance does not break, it will be a completely weak position for Japan, and Abe must have to worry about solving the security dilemma.

The improvement of China-Japanese relations has basically solved the risk of a fire and fire in China and Japan. The advancement of the DPRK nuclear issue will eventually solve the problem of Japan’s security being threatened by North Korean missiles. If Japan and Russia sign a peace treaty, military guns from Russia that can happen at any time can be avoided.

In the past, Japan’s position was that it would not sign a peace treaty without resolving the territorial issue. After Putin proposed in September 2018 to set aside the island’s first peace treaty, the consensus reached by Abe in Russia in January 2019 was based on the 1956 The Declaration is based on negotiations. In other words, Japan can accept the two islands. Unlike previous politicians who made shows on the territorial issue, which showed a strong tough political capital, Abe’s visit to Russia in January 2019 was extremely low-key. The two sides did not disclose the relevant content of the negotiations. At the time of the meeting with Abe, Putin said at the press conference that Russia and Japan confirmed their willingness to sign the peace treaty. If the Japanese-Russian military relations can be normalized, it will bring about dramatic progress in improving the security situation around Japan.

After all, the Japanese-Russian contradiction comes from the struggle between the United States and Russia. Once Japan bypasses the qualitative development of the United States and Russia to improve military relations, there is no need for future Japan-Russia relations. The easing of relations with Russia and the strengthening of relations with Russia are the choices made by Japan after examining its long-term security dilemma. It is also the result of Japan’s search for its own positioning and countermeasures after China’s rise has changed the situation in the region. Japan’s actions to incite the China-Russian joint pattern will not be reduced and will only strengthen.

Generally speaking, in today’s world, there are both big changes in China and the United States, as well as a small change in Europe, Russia and Japan. The stronger parties such as the European Union, Russia, India, and Japan have chosen to re-adjust their many pairs of relationships and contradictions in the future when the structural contradictions between China and the United States have become increasingly prominent, in order to remain invincible in the future. Ground.

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