Just as Iran threatens to renew the nuclear-enhanced uranium enrichment on Friday (September 6), France is proposing a new “return to the negotiating table” condition, hoping to break the Trang The tension since the unilateral withdrawal of the nuclear agreement in May 2018.
Reuters quoted a multi-party report on Tuesday (September 3) that France is proposing to give Iran a $15 billion credit line, and the latter’s oil exports as collateral, as a condition for Iran’s re-entry agreement.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has another condition for this: Iran is willing to negotiate on regional security issues in the Persian Gulf region and the nuclear program after 2025. The so-called “regional security issue” is believed to refer to the Iranian missile development plan that the United States has been hanging on, and the addition of this plan to the negotiating project has also been vetoed by Iran.
The development of the situation
The development of the situation on the same day shows that the road to the United States and Iraq is difficult to smooth. First, the US Treasury Department launched a new round of sanctions against three Iranian space and space agencies. Second, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also said that it will not conduct bilateral negotiations with the US anyway. Finally, the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization (AEOI) It is claimed that Iran can reproduce enriched uranium with a purity of 20% within two days – these purity is regarded as a “transfer station” for the development of nuclear-grade enriched uranium.
However, on the same day, Ledrien met with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in Washington; US Secretary of State Lian Pei also paid a courtesy call on the next four giants of the next EU system in Brussels: European Commission President Von Delaine ( Ursula von der Leyen), European Council President Charles Michel, EU Foreign and Security Policy Senior Representative Josep Borrell, and European Parliament Speaker David Sassoli.
At the same time, Gordon Sondland, the US ambassador to the European Union, indicated that Pompeo’s trip was to “re-establish US-European relations” and that after the communication, “there are already different goals and only different strategies.” From this point of view, it seems that Trump is full of praise for the host Mark Long at the G7 summit in France, and the summit of 2018 becomes “G1 to G6”. The Trump administration probably knows that it cannot rely on the singles. The hardship of sideism.
On Wednesday (September 4th), Trump also renewed his willingness to meet with Rohani at the UN General Assembly in September; on the same day, Rohani also said that he would give the EU two months to solve the problem, which seems to imply that Iran has not yet been confirmed on Friday. Further violation of the nuclear agreement; Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi also said that if Iran obtains 15 billion U.S. dollars in four months, it will return to the nuclear agreement.
However, Brian Hook, the Iranian affairs representative of the US State Department, has proposed a cold water supply to France’s credit line: “The new sanctions have come one after another. Our insistence on extreme pressure cannot be more clearly understood, and we will not consider any Exemption.” Without the acquiescence of the United States, it seems that no financial institution is willing to give Iran an credit line.
Macron’s needle lead
The French President Mark Long, who has built the EU into another core of world power, has been working for months to resolve the conflict between the United States and Iraq. Above the G7 summit, he also invited Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to visit the summit venue, hoping to promote the reconciliation between the United States and Iraq. Although the representatives of the United States and Iraq did not meet at the end, Mark Long persuaded Trump to express his willingness to meet with Iranian President Rohani at the joint press conference of the two after the summit.
At present, France (on behalf of the European Union), the United States and Iran are constantly asking for prices and seeking the basis for negotiations. France has been reconciling in the middle. The US has gone from the insistence of “no pre-establishment negotiations” to “may use the credit line in exchange for Iran to return to the negotiating table”, while the Iraqi side has gone from the initial “no negotiation with the United States” to “not with the United States.” The position of conducting bilateral negotiations shows that if a signatory country such as France joins, the Iraqi side is not unwilling to sit on the same multilateral negotiating table with the United States.
Although the Iranian target still insists that the United States should first lift the sanctions, during the G7 summit, Reuters quoted Iranian officials as saying that if Iran can export 700,000 barrels of oil a day (according to July data, its oil exports have been low to 100,000 per day). The barrel, which fell nearly 95% before the sanctions, will be a possible condition for restarting the negotiations. This shows that the Iranian side is by no means a piece of iron.
What can Europe give to the United States?
If the United States and Iraq can ease tensions in the short term – for example, the United States can “slap one eye and close one eye”, and allow financial institutions to provide Iran with a credit line without officially lifting the sanctions – the role of France It can be said that it is indispensable, and the core character of the company, Mark Long, can of course also make a great contribution to the leader.
In the eyes of the United States, if Trump really wants to express his sincerity with the EU to “repair old good,” the small concession on the Iranian issue can be considered an important symbol.
At present, apart from the fact that the basis for resuming negotiations has not yet reached a consensus, one of the major reasons for the situation to be eased is that Trump is hesitant about whether or not to ease relations with the EU. What can the US-EU relationship give him? benefit?
The EU, as well as Mark Long himself, believes that Trump also uses the US-European relationship as a model of peer-to-peer trading. However, what are these conditions (is the European Central Bank no longer quantitative easing? Is it a joint ban on Huawei? Is it a further open market for US agricultural products? Or…?), and whether the EU forces with the core of Markon can give relevant conditions, There is no answer yet.