Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities were attacked, crude oil and natural gas supplies fell, and international oil prices were volatile. The United States pointed its finger at Iran, and President Trump even said that “the bullets have been on the line” to signal the war. The situation in the Persian Gulf is heating up.
Trump posted on the social networking site, saying that there is reason to believe who is behind the scenes, and that the United States “locked and loaded” (locked and loaded), for the first time may indicate a possible military response.
Although the post did not clearly indicate who was behind the scenes, on the same day US officials publicized satellite images, accusing all evidence of pointing in the same direction — Iran is responsible for the attack.
The United States has to respond, but how can it respond?
When Bolton was expelled on the 10th, the outside world also expected an opportunity for the US-Iranian relationship to improve. Who knows that the situation has deteriorated rapidly in less than four days. After Iran shot down a drone in the United States in June, the United States almost airstrikes Iran and plans to be temporarily suspended by Trump. This time with Trump’s “bullet captain”, the situation is heating up.
The United States is facing a difficult choice: in the face of atrocities that can smash the global oil supply chain, the United States cannot sit idly by, which is very different from North Korea, where missiles only test missiles fall into the sea.
But the war with the Tehran government will further confuse the situation in the Persian Gulf. Although the outside world believes that the United States will not launch a large-scale offensive against Iran, any “punishment” can provoke a fierce response from the Tehran government. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has stated that it is ready to conduct a “comprehensive war.”
Aaron David Miller, a former US State Department adviser, believes that there is no good answer. The United States cannot respond without refraining from attacking the situation: “The answer is no answer.”
Not only the United States and Iran but also the militant hawks
If the United States imposes a punitive attack on Iran, such as an air strike, it will be no different from the results of the war that the American hawks longed for in June. Trump hopes to stay away from the war. Although he is pressing the pressure on Iran, he still opens the door to negotiations. Now, what happens to the war can be a “conspiracy”?
Before falling into conspiracy theories, it is necessary to specialize in not only the United States, but Iran itself also has “militant hawks”. They resist the policy of opening up to the West and oppose the pragmatist President Rohani. The tension between the United States and Iraq is beneficial to them.
Reuters quoted an Iranian official as saying that the US-Iraq conflict will not only strike Iran, but also cause harm to the Persian Gulf countries. Officials did not specifically point out who would like to have a conflict. The report pointed out that long-term opposition to the United States, Iran’s highest spiritual leader Ali Khamenei would be a major obstacle.
Another Iranian official was reported to say: “Iran can benefit from the incident because oil prices will rise.” “The United States needs to accept their failure. Because of US pressure and condemnation against us, it is impossible to bring peace to the region.”