Since the attack on two oil facilities in Saudi Arabia on Saturday (September 14), the United States and Saudi Arabia have ignored the Yemeni Hosse organization’s initiative to recognize responsibility and point the finger at Iran. The Saudi Ministry of Defense disclosed the “evidence” to the media on Wednesday (September 18). Its Deputy Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman also hinted that the United States has a common defense responsibility for Saudi Arabia, in conjunction with US Secretary of State Pompeo (Mike) Pompeo) pointed out that the attack on the oil plant was a “war act”, and the Gulf region seemed to be clouded at one time.
Just as the U.S. drones were shot down earlier, Trump, who refused to conduct military operations against Iran, was a “hard-core” Trump. Although he said that the United States “the gun is on the stage and is ready”, it only requires a “substantial increase in sanctions” against Iran in the actual operation. The United States has now almost sanctioned the entire Iranian economy. There is no room for sanctions.
Trump’s Republican ally and Senator Lindsey Graham on Monday (September 17) pointed out that Trump’s moderate handling of Iran has been seen by Iran as a “weak signal.” However, Trump insisted that his moderation is “the performance of power” and quoted the United States as a warning to the Iraqi people.
It can be seen that although the geopolitical situation in the Gulf region has become more and more tense, the overall war seems to be far from reality.
Whose drone? Whose cruise missiles?
At a press conference on Wednesday, Saudi Ministry of Defence spokesperson Turki al-Malki showed the media two weapons and oil fields from Abqaiq and Khurais. It is pointed out that there are a total of 18 drones and 7 cruise missiles involved in the operation, and the fragments can prove that Iran’s “Triangle Wing” drone and Ya-Ali cruise missile.
Although Marchi indicated that the attack came from the north, not to Yemen in the south, he also admitted that the Saudi side is still confirming the launch point of the weapon. His terminology was also extremely careful. He only said that the attack “unquestionably received Iranian support” rather than directly accusing the attack of being Iran, nor did it rule out that the attack was based on the Iranian-backed Houthi armed group.
Seeing the attack caused 5% of the world’s oil production to be blocked. Some even described it as “the Pearl Harbor incident in the oil industry.” The outsider’s intuitive response also questioned whether the Hussein organization actively recognizing responsibility had the ability to launch such attacks.
However, according to a report released by the United Nations in January 2019, Hossein has drones with a range of 1,200 to 1,500 kilometers, and in June 2019, an airport in Saudi Arabia was attacked by Hossein. It is the Ya-Ali cruise missile, in line with the fact that Hussein publicly displayed the relevant weapons in July (including the words “Made in Yemen”), so if only the strength of the military strength is used to question the Housei recognition responsibility There is no evidence of the authenticity.
Because of the different opinions on the responsibility of the attack, France and Germany and other EU countries have not followed the United States to immediately accuse Iran. Some conspiracy theorists have inferred that the incident once pushed up the price of oil by nearly 20%, pointing out that Saudi Arabia, the United States, Iran, and even Oil futures speculators may also be the culprit behind the scenes.
Saudi Arabia’s “False”
Whatever the truth, it is undeniable that the fundamental source of this serious attack is the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the “Iranian Nuclear Agreement” in May 2018, and the unprecedented “impressive pressure” imposed on Iran. Steady.
As an American ally, Saudi Arabia has always regarded Iran as an enemy. It is quite anxious about the thawing of the US-Iranian relationship brought about by the nuclear agreement. When Trump exited the nuclear agreement, Saudi Arabia publicly expressed its support, thinking that “watermelon depends on the big side” and that the United States has a strong assist, which will inevitably convince Iran. Unexpectedly, Iran’s oil exports have so far fallen more than 90% before the sanctions, but they have refused to persevere and even gradually withdrew from the nuclear agreement, and by virtue of their grasp of the geographical advantages of the Strait of Hormuz, Pressure is applied to the way of seizing and interfering with the tanker.
On June 20th, Iran flagrantly shot down the U.S. drone, which is considered by Iran to test the water temperature of the Trump bottom line. This time, Iran “knows to know the dragon and the phoenix”, seeing Trump’s fundamental scruples about military operations, and dares to make symbolic retaliation against Iran’s highest spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. At this time, Saudi Arabia knew that it was wrong to pay the United States, but it was hateful and difficult to return. On the one hand, it continued to praise the United States’ “unprecedented confrontation” against Iran, and on the other hand, it required the international community to intervene.
Pro-Iranian forces’ unequal war
In fact, in the case of Iran’s insistence on its position and the reluctance of the United States to relax its sanctions in order to negotiate, Trump will only have to surrender Iran’s military operations. If the United States does not dare or refuse to march, the most vulnerable to it will be its allies in the region. Local forces directly or indirectly supported by Iran, such as the Houthi organization, can endure fears such as Saudi Arabia as long as they persist in their unequal warfare.
Nowadays, weapons such as drones and cruise missiles are extremely easy to obtain, and attacks by low-altitude or high-speed flight are almost impossible to prevent. For example, Israel with the Patriot missile defense system used millions of dollars worth of missiles to shoot down drones worth thousands of dollars, or even 3D printing. The cost of war between the two sides is extremely large.
In addition, for attacks on military forces from areas such as Houthi, Saudi Arabia and other countries can be regarded as “a little attacker and a thousand miles of defenders.” In order to detect the invasion of low-flying drones, there must be multiple detection mechanisms such as radar, radio frequency, electro-optic effect, infrared, acoustics, etc. However, Saudi Arabia has a very wide range of people, and it is almost impossible to fully construct the relevant devices.
What’s more, Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities are small in number and extremely important. Unlike the highly dispersed oil wells and refining facilities in the United States, it will cause serious economic blows if they are allowed to succeed.
At this moment, seeing the aftermath of the Kashoji incident last year, Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, plans to gradually list at the end of this year. The Saudi side hopes that the market value will reach 2 trillion US dollars, so that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad (Mohammad) Bin Salman) can continue its economic reforms by easing the country’s single dependence on the oil industry. Now that the attack on the oil plant came out, the outside world was shocked that Saudi Arabia’s oil output was not as stable as originally thought, and the geopolitical tension in the Gulf region did not have a short-term solution. The confidence in Saudi Aramco was not as good as before. .
Saudi Aramco’s listing is the most important step in Muhammad’s reform. It was postponed last year due to the Kashuji incident, and now it is even more difficult for Trump’s confidence in the Iranian problem caused by Trump. Although Trump had never left Saudi Arabia in the Kashuji incident, there is Trump, a hard-working and teammate who has lost his strength. Muhammad’s mood is complicated at this moment. Maybe he can only express the feeling that he has such a teammate. Do you still need an enemy?”.