trump

The situation in which US President Donald Trump was impeached for “Tong Umen” continued to ferment in the United States. Looking at the Democratic Party’s practice, the impeachment itself is by no means an end. It is the real goal of the Democratic Party’s veteran, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, perhaps by maintaining a few months of impeachment, to Trump and the Republic. The party launched an offensive, consolidating the seat of the House of Representatives, and taking the majority seat in the Senate from the Republican Party.

However, whether it is the American society or the international audience, the most concerned about this impeachment case is its influence on the 2020 presidential election. This is especially true for Trump himself.

In order to win the advantage of public opinion, Trump, as a “public relations expert”, frequently uttered voices and threatened to launch a impeachment by the Democratic Party as a political attack. He also consolidated his voter base with words such as “patriots”. At the same time, he did not forget to repeatedly It is undoubtedly to praise the United States through diplomatic “achievement”, and it is undoubtedly the US-China relationship that cannot be passed away in foreign affairs. In response to the 2020 presidential US election, Trump said more than once that “China hopes that the Democratic Party candidate wins the 2020 general election” to prove I initiated the correctness of the tariff offensive and trade negotiations.

However, this has always been Trump’s self-directed performance. It is clear to everyone that Beijing is looking forward to Trump’s re-election to the US president in November 2020. This is based on three rational and objective reasons.

One: the main pusher of the US self-destruction of the Great Wall

In addition to the Democratic Party and China, the US Federal Reserve (Feds) is the most common target for Trump on Twitter. On August 23, Trump even questioned the Fed’s inaction and failed to cut interest rates. He asked, “I just want to know who is our bigger enemy. Is Powell (Fed Chair) still Xi Jinping?”

The difference between Trump and the Fed is well known. The reason is that Trump has long advocated quantitative easing and negative interest rate policies, which it believes can provide more room for economic growth. However, even if interest rate cuts can promote currency circulation, it will further expand the economic bubble and increase the gap between the rich and the poor and social contradictions. These trends are already visible to the United States, which has continued to grow in the economy over the past decade.

In addition to these drawbacks, quantitative easing, as an incentive in extreme cases, must not be abused again and again. The current US economy is not in a state of crisis. Economic growth and employment rates are still at historically high levels. In particular, the starting point for interest rate cuts is close to zero. In this case, the quantitative easing policy is adopted to achieve better economic figures. The risk is much greater than the income. What’s more, the low interest rate and the depreciation of the currency will make the crisis really come to a halt, making it difficult for fiscal and monetary policies that are inherently flexible.

At the root of it, whether it is the stagnation of the US economy, the hollowing out of manufacturing, or the problems of industrial upgrading and low production efficiency in other developing countries, it is impossible to solve it only by quantitative easing, and these problems are the benign development of the economy. The fundamental obstacle. The deep-seated reasons for the outbreak of the financial crisis are also the same. However, in the past 10 years, the US government has not only failed to solve these fundamental problems through structural reforms, but has repeatedly introduced quantitative easing policies such as fiscal and monetary.

Of course, this is also easy to understand – internal reforms require long-term and difficult policy pushes, and it is much easier to print blood for the economy. Trump said that the US economy “has never been so prosperous”, complaining that interest rates are too high, and that the economy needs blood transfusions, because his appeal is not to save the crisis, but to deliver a beautiful economic growth figure during his tenure.

Trump’s economic policy is making the US’s severe economic situation even more difficult to return. This is the unfortunate situation of the United States, and it is not worthy of Beijing’s happiness. Instead, it needs China and other countries to be alert. However, this kind of drinking and quenching thirst in the United States is already killing the US dollar’s most important trump card, and Trump’s more radical behavior will undoubtedly accelerate the trend of the US self-destruction of the Great Wall.

Second: the new possibility of opening the interests first

Another reason why Beijing and even many Chinese support Trump’s re-election to the US president is that he cares more about short-term gains and ideology-dominated thinking.

On many issues of concern to China, whether it is the US-China trade, the Taiwan Strait issue, the US-DPRK issue, the Western Pacific military allies system, the US-Iranian relationship, etc., Washington has its “political correctness” and traditional ideology, such as “support.” Allies, “tough against North Korea,” are all Washington’s existing positions. In recent decades, China and the United States have made great progress in cooperation on many issues, but in many areas, it has been difficult to make breakthroughs. This has much to do with the existing positions of Washington.

However, Trump, who has stepped from the edge of American politics to the center of power, has not been subjected to such a position. As an outsider, he faced a series of problems in a non-traditional way, which caused some stalemate to usher in an opportunity to solve. For example, his attitude toward Kim Jong-un and the US-DPRK issue has brought about a certain solution to the big problem concerning China’s national security and economic development in Northeast Asia. For example, he treated the Abe government against Japan in the way he treated allies such as Japan. The reassessment of US relations has accelerated the pace at which Tokyo has stepped up its operations in Japan-China relations. These are all joys and joys of China.

At the same time, even the most concerned China-US trade war, Trump’s emphasis on electoral politics and the pursuit of short-term account income also made him a relatively flexible negotiation object, especially with trade negotiator Wright Heze (Robert Lighthizer), Peter Navarro, director of the Trade and Manufacturing Policy Office, and others.

Third: tear off the camouflage, let people see the United States

As for another reason why Beijing supports Trump’s re-election, as Henry Kissinger said after the US-Russia summit in July 2018, “I think Trump may become the end era, the old age. One of the characters who have torn off the camouflage. Of course, Trump may not be intentional, and may not know how to stand up after the big break, I am afraid this is just an accident” – Trump is tearing away the disguise of many old times.

After Trump took office, the US government’s series of “returning” decisions, a series of controversial domestic political policies, not only pushed the tears of American society to a climax, but also made the countries of the traditional Western camp feel extremely Hey. Many people have never imagined that the US President would actually abandon the “soft power assets” that the United States is proud of. When Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang and other Chinese leaders defended the free economic order in international situations such as Davos and took the lead in fighting against US trade protectionism, this also made people lament that this is not the case.

However, this is not the reason why Beijing supports Trump’s re-election. China’s growing openness is determined by China’s own development trajectory, and it is not changed by who is the president of the United States. What makes Beijing happy is that Trump’s many practices are tearing away the “disguise of the old times”, making the United States’ arrogance in many fields more realistic.

Whether in the increasingly frequent US debt default crisis, the self-interested quantitative easing policy, or the interests of Saudi Arabia and other allies, and the contempt of traditional liberal democratic values ​​have made more and more people See the reality of international politics based on interests rather than values. The extreme right-wing and ultra-conservative voices that accompanied Trump, also made the relatively inclusive, populist, occluded, and ignorant side of American society present to the world. This is not surprising for those who have known the diversity of American society, but for those who have limited understanding of the United States and have many unrealistic illusions, it is like disillusionment – and China originally had many such people.

The United States under the Trump era has made many Chinese people more invented. The development of the country can only rely on itself. Looking forward to the help of any other country, it is all about fighting with the tiger. The values ​​of democracy and freedom should also be through the development of the economy. After the fields of national defense, science and technology, industry, and political system, the goal that will eventually be gradually reached is not something that the United States or any country can give. Beijing has obviously understood this point, and the emergence of Trump is making more and more people understand this truth.

 

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