Is the Brexit really going to the “last minute”?

Although the Brexit looks far from the horizon, after the pound has risen from 1 pair of 1.22 US dollars to 1 pair of 1.30 US dollars in less than 10 days, everyone knows that if the timing is right, the situation of Brexit will develop a little more. It is not a bad thing to know.

Johnson last week entered into a new Brexit agreement with the European Union, allowing Northern Ireland to actually join the EU Customs Union and nominally remain in the customs territory throughout the UK, although it will always oppose the “one country, two systems” ruling party Northern Ireland Democratic Unity Party (DUP) kicked off the boat, but in one fell swoop to avoid the problem of re-hardening the border on Northern Ireland, to lay a strong shot for the market.

Has Johnson avoided the “Wen Cuishan Dilemma”?

However, in the House of Commons meeting held on Saturday (October 19) for the first time since the Falkland War in 1982, Johnson, who tried to pass the New Brexit Agreement, was defeated again and was forced to ask the EU to postpone the Brexit. – The parliament decided by 5 votes that the Brexit agreement between the UK and Europe could not be passed before the necessary Brexit bill was passed.

On Monday (October 21), Johnson resumed and tried again, and then handed over the new Brexit agreement to Congress, which was blocked by the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, on the grounds of repeated bills. In desperation, he had to try his best to pass the Brexit bill before October 31, in order to achieve his promise of “death”.

Such a dilemma does make people recall that the former Prime Minister Wen Cuishan was holding the Brexit agreement, but it did not push the controversy of the Congress. At that time, Wen Cuishan thought that it would be a relief to get rid of the difficulties and reach an agreement with the EU.

However, Johnson’s situation is very different at this moment. There are only a few steps away from the leadership of the Brexit: from the right-wing Financial Times to the left-wing Guardian, most of the predictions based on the voting history and public statements of the members As a result, it is shown that Johnson will pass the Brexit agreement by a few votes; at the same time, according to the poll conducted by YouGov last week, 41% of the respondents supported the adoption of the new agreement, while the opponents only had 24%.

It can be seen that although Johnson’s Brexit agreement is only a small variation of the Wen Cuishan agreement, but the British political sentiment that is getting more and more tired of the Brexit dispute is very beneficial to Johnson. It’s no wonder that CNN will be so confident that this week’s vote “seriously” marks “the last moment” – although the Western media have used the “last minute” to describe the repeated major Brexit political events for almost a year, but each There is also “final” after the “last”.

However, there are still three major challenges in the “last-minute” status of the various votes this week.

“Official Brexit” is just the beginning.

First, after the second reading of the Brexit Act, Congress will vote on a “Programme Motion” on Tuesday to limit the time for parliament discussions so that the bill can pass the House of Commons this week. However, since the text of the Brexit Act was officially announced on Monday, even the supporters of Johnson in principle have reservations about this “quick march”, and it is undoubtedly a political gift for him to let Johnson go from time to time. It is also a good policy to oppose the “time limit motion” and let the Brexit delay for at least a few weeks.

Second, since Congress has bundled the Brexit Agreement with the adoption of the Brexit Act, the extension of the review will also give parliament more time to propose amendments that Johnson is unwilling to accept. Even if all goes well, the amendment to “submit the Brexit agreement to the second referendum” and “prescribe the UK to enter into a customs union with the EU in the future” is also expected to be voted on Wednesday (October 23).

Since the former is an anti-winning attempt by the Europeans, the latter is a soft Brexit that “gets off the beat”, and Johnson is bound to oppose it. If passed, Johnson may only play a pre-election or referendum with “people against politicians” to resolve the deadlock.

According to the predictions of the Financial Times, there is little chance for these two amendments to pass. However, if the failure of Brexit on October 31 and the expiration of the Brexit period are being postponed, it is not necessarily impossible to unite the front and defeat Johnson. After all, the “second referendum” and the “European-European Customs Union” are also the European Union advocates. The former is more extreme and attempts to overthrow the outcome of the referendum and stay in Europe. The latter just accepted the referendum decision in principle but wanted to leave the European Union. The closer the UK and the EU are, the better. The difference between the two can only be said to be a line apart.

With his fickle strategy, Johnson reached an agreement with the EU at the last minute to let the opposition parties know how to deal with it. Even if the government is far from the majority of the Congress, it seems that the United Kingdom has really pushed the UK to the “last minute” of the Brexit journey. However, after this “final”, there is still no “final”. I can only say one thing now: It is very possible, but it is not certain.

More importantly, even if Johnson can successfully lead the UK to leave the European Union on October 31, this is only the beginning of Britain after the Brexit era. In the future, between Britain and Europe, it is necessary to conclude that it is only a “political declaration”. English-European trade agreement. From this perspective, the so-called “last-minute” of Brexit this time, in fact, can not even start.