According to the latest economic data released by the United States, the US trade deficit in the first nine months of 2019 expanded to nearly $500 billion, and the overall US trade deficit continued to decline. This also means that the Trump administration’s trade policy or tariff trade war has limited effect, and even has some counter-effects. To a certain extent, this also prompted Trump to seek a phased trade agreement with China as soon as possible.
On November 7, Beijing time, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying announced that China’s top leader Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to Greece from November 10th to 15th and go to Brazil to attend the BRICS summit. On the same day, the US media Bloomberg and the British media Reuters quoted a Donald Trump government source as saying that China and the United States have already pushed the first phase of the agreement to December, and the two sides are still at specific time and place. Communicate.
At present, Xi Jinping’s visit has not planned to visit the United States, and there is no media arrangement for signing a trade agreement in Greece. The Trump administration’s proposal to host Xi Jinping and sign a trade agreement in Alaska or Iowa has been ruled out. The Macau option previously reported by the media has also been denied by the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
According to reports from the British and American media, the two sides agreed to look for third-party countries in Europe or Asia as a signing location. Options include London, Sweden, Switzerland, and Singapore. Among them, the British media believes that London is more likely, because Trump will attend the NATO summit from December 3 to 4, where the leaders of the two countries may meet. However, the United Kingdom is the first ally of the United States and its neutrality is not enough. China is unlikely to accept it.
In other words, the expectations of the Trump administration to sign the first phase of the trade agreement with China in November were frustrated. Of course, this does not prevent China and the United States from reaching a text agreement in November, and then choose the opportunity to hold the signing ceremony of the SIT.
Although the two sides are temporarily unable to finalize the venue of the CITE and the signing of the trade agreement, one thing is certain: the willingness to ease the trade war and reach the first phase agreement is strong. This is especially true in the United States. Not to mention that Trump is eager to reach an agreement with China from the perspective of personal political interests. The latest economic data of the United States alone is also prompting the curtains around Trump to change the assessment of the current trade situation.
According to the latest data released by the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis on November 5, in the first three quarters of 2019, the US trade deficit in goods and services rose by 5.4% over the same period in 2018, reaching $481.3 billion. The total US exports fell by 7 billion U.S. dollars in 2018, while imports increased by 17.8 billion U.S. dollars. Among them, in September, US exports amounted to US$202 billion, a decrease of US$1.8 billion from August; imports amounted to US$258.4 billion, a decrease of US$4.4 billion from August.
The New York Times analysis believes that the data released on November 5 highlights the impact of US tariffs on more than 100 billion US goods from China since September 1. Although the US trade deficit in goods and services fell in September from $550 billion, the US imports and exports to China are declining with the implementation of new tariffs. For example, the decline in imports of mobile phones, toys, and semiconductors means that American companies and consumers are becoming more cautious. Some companies have also begun to import more goods from regions or countries such as Taiwan, Vietnam and Mexico. To a certain extent, this has also caused the US foreign trade deficit to increase without reversing.
A survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States in the sixth district of the United States on November 2 showed that US-China trade tensions and tariff penalties have caused the United States to lose nearly 40,000 jobs in the first half of 2019. In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessed that the trade war between the United States and China would cause the world economy to lose about $700 billion by the end of 2020, equivalent to the size of the entire Swiss economy. The Fed and the World Trade Organization have repeatedly warned that a sustained trade war will only increase the investment burden and weaken economic growth.
According to data released by the US Treasury on October 25, the fiscal deficit of the US federal government increased by 26% year-on-year to approximately US$984.4 billion in fiscal year 2019 (October 1, 2018 to September 30, 2019). The highest level since 2012. Although the fiscal revenue of the US federal government increased by about 4% year-on-year in FY 2019, the deficit increased sharply as fiscal spending increased by more than 8%. The Federal Budget Accountancy Committee issued a statement on October 25 that the US federal fiscal deficit may exceed $1 trillion in fiscal year 2020 and may continue to increase in the future. This is “unsustainable.” of”.
The analysis believes that the purpose of the tariff trade war initiated by Trump is to reduce the US trade deficit and expand the US manufacturing industry and export. However, from the current state of development of the trade war, the Trump administration has not achieved the desired goal. The tariff trade war against China did not help the United States reduce its deficit and did not achieve the so-called trade balance.
In order to alleviate the trade war, the Chinese government has repeatedly asked the United States to cancel the tariffs already imposed, but the American hawks have refused to make concessions in this regard for a year. However, in preparation for the new IPCC and the signing of the first phase of the agreement, the United States is also considering phasing out or canceling some of the tariffs already imposed.
It is understood that the first phase of the trade agreement covers the purchase of money, automobiles, financial services and agricultural products. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer also hopes to make progress on issues such as intellectual property protection, enforcement mechanisms and trademark and patent protection at this stage, and then strive to reach a consensus in the second phase of trade negotiations. As for China’s industrial policy, state-owned enterprise subsidies and data flow restrictions, it seems that the two sides have made great progress in these two stages.