On January 3, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered U.S. forces to launch an assassination operation at Baghdad International Airport in Iraq by drone killing. The dead included the Revolutionary Guard “Holy City Army” who was invited to the meeting by the Iraqi Prime Minister. (Quds Force) Commander Qassem Soleimani.
The Iranian Army is the core organization of Iran, and the Revolutionary Guard is the core organization of the Iranian Army. The “Holy City Army” responsible for overseas tasks is also the elite backbone of the Revolutionary Guard. It is Iran ’s highest-ranking military general and a public figure beloved by Iran ’s nationals. Its low-key and calm personality has made him trusted by both Iran ’s radical conservatives and moderate reformers. It is the highest leader Ali Khamenei. ) Under the Iranian number two.
When the news came out, it was a stir. Iran ’s domestic sentiment is rousing, and moderate reformers and radical conservatives mourn the martyrdom of the “guardians of the country” and vowed to retaliate against the United States. The United States has defended its actions from the White House to the State Department, saying that the killing was a murder Hundreds of American terrorists, Republicans in Congress applauded the assassination, Democrats took the opportunity to attack Trump; China, Russia, France, Germany, Britain and other countries have also called for restraint and set out for the worst prospects Preparation; as for the Internet, it even spread the ridicule of “World War III”.
Obviously, governments, academia, the media, and society are aware of the far-reaching impact of this operation, and are also stunned by the White House decision. After all, such an act of assassination of the highest level of the military of other countries is appalling, contrary to the most basic norms of international relations, and it will definitely aggravate turbulence. More importantly, the effect of this act on the United States is very limited. of.
So why did the United States execute this assassination? To answer this question, Trump must be looked back on.
In fact, as a firm anti-American in Iran, Suleimani has always been the eye of the White House and the Pentagon, and his killing plan has been in front of previous US presidents for a long time. Out of various thoughtful considerations, both George W. Bush and Barack Obama took action, and this US military action was also ordered by Trump, the US military commander. There are three reasons why Mr. Trump is pushing him to do so.
First, it is still the 2020 US presidential election. Remember that before the 2012 US presidential election, Trump repeatedly stated on Twitter that “Obama will provoke war with Iran in order to succeed in reelection.” Now that the assassination has happened, his tweets of that year have naturally become a tool for people to ridicule him.
After the assassination on January 3, Trump immediately tweeted an American flag on Twitter. The motive for naming yourself is obvious. Thinking of the coming elections and the impeachment case that has been going on for several months, Trump’s high-profile provocation against Iran before the “trial” in the Senate will inevitably lead people to question that their motivations are not just “they (referring to Iran) attack us, We will fight back. “
The development of the situation is also as Trump hoped. The diminishing presidential impeachment case has been completely assassinated and the Middle East situation has once again become the most important political issue in Washington.
Second, kill chickens and tamarins. Chicken, Sulaymani, Iran. Monkey, North Korean Kim Jong Un. The renewed intensification of the U.S.-Israeli issue in recent years is because Trump led the United States to withdraw from the “Iran nuclear agreement.” The U.S.-DPRK issue has ushered in a key turning point in the past two years. Because Trump’s eclectic. The United States, Iran, and North Korea are the iconic diplomatic events of the Trump administration. At the same time, they are facing the embarrassment of hardly making progress at the beginning of the new year.
At this time, although North Korea ’s supreme leader Kim Jong-un did not offer a “Christmas gift” to the United States as he said, he also said at the 5th plenary session of the 7th Central Committee of the Korean Workers ’Party that ended on January 1. There is no reason to be bound by my announced moratorium on nuclear weapons tests and intercontinental ballistic missile tests. ” It is clear that North Korea is becoming increasingly impatient. The White House, which has no solution, also needs to respond to the increasingly restless Pyongyang.
Obviously, Trump is not a good person. How can this president who behaves like “school bullying” bear the tough attitude of “little brothers” in his eyes? Today, Trump’s assassination order can be called “rapidly popular” and can be called “lack of consideration”, but it has achieved a shocking sensory effect. Although this will not affect the overall direction of North Korea ’s US policy and the basic situation of the US-DPRK issue, it will certainly make the DPRK side hesitate and think more about how to face the Trump administration.
However, the most important reason for Trump to issue an assassination order lies in the third: US-Iran negotiations. The biggest reason for US-Iranian relations in recent years is that Trump unilaterally withdrew from the “Iran nuclear agreement” in 2018 in order to overthrow Obama’s political legacy and establish new achievements. But the White House withdrawing from the agreement today has no alternative. When Iran halted its obligations under the agreement on the grounds that the United States had broken faith, the White House had no other response except to useless threats and pressures with limited effectiveness.
This is not an issue that cannot be solved by itself. After repeated negotiations, the “Iran nuclear agreement” can be repackaged and signed. But Trump’s character can not tolerate Iran’s refusal to concede and step by step. Trump hopes to use this kind of assassination to let Iran recognize who really stands on the upper hand and who really has the advantage of negotiation and masters more power.
This is the result of Trump’s personal character. However, this approach may be suitable for bullying on campus and for threats between underworlds. However, this is international politics. Such an approach is not only a violation of all norms and the style of big powers, but most of all is not good for the United States, Iran, or even other countries ( Perhaps only Israel benefits from it).
The domestic anti-war sentiment in the United States has already become a trend. Trump ’s approach will not be beneficial to the election. The US and North Korean situation will not undergo a radical change. The Iranian inherited the proud character of Persia, it is impossible to swallow this. Bad breath-The above three reasons, even if they are true, are just Trump’s whimsy. Unfortunately, he is the president of the United States. From the moment American voters elected him in 2016, the world is destined to experience ups and downs for several years.
Next, although the United States and Iran will not break out of war, they will repeatedly perform retaliatory operations in the coming months. What is more difficult to prevent are the ordinary and angry Iranian and Iraqi civilians who have independently attacked and troubled the US military, Americans and even American allies. Considering the prominent and important role of Suleimani during his lifetime, a new round of reshuffle in the Middle East has also begun.