In the West, there is such a folk ballad:

Lost a nail and broke a shoe;

Broken a hoof, broke a warhorse;

Broke a war horse and injured a knight;

Injured a knight and lost a battle;

Lost a battle and lost an empire.

Trump ’s assassination of Iran ’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard ’s “Holy City Army” commander Qassem Soleimani is like the “nail” that caused a series of butterfly effects, and then the “bad iron hoof”, “broken horse”, “Injury Knight”, “Loss of Battle” and even “Dead Empire” seem to be expected. At least for now, with the death of Suleimani as the lead, the entire Middle East and the world have become gunpowder barrels. The clouds of the Third World War have begun to spread in every corner.

Will the Middle East detonate World War III, who is Suleimani, why did the US military assassinate Suleimani, what the United States got, what kind of revenge Iran will take, and who will profit in the chaos, China and Russia How to do it and where the situation in the Middle East will go, these are topics of general concern to all parties. The topics in this group will be discussed and elaborated on the above issues, so stay tuned.

“Games have both losers and wins” is what everyone often hears. However, since Trump ordered the killing of Suleimani on Friday (January 3), in addition to causing Iran to retaliate against Iraq ’s US military presence on Wednesday (January 8), Iran has also stopped observing all After the terms of the nuclear agreement, European countries were rushed to seek a concerted response. Looking around the world, everyone seems to see only losers, but no winners.

After the outbreak, countries around the world demanded restraint from all parties, and even Iran, Iran ’s deadly rival, did not dare to publicly agree with Trump ’s decision. The main theme of the United States and Europe’s “ally” is still asking all parties not to let the situation heat up. Germany is “playing 50 boards each” indicating that Iran is also responsible for the escalation of the situation; British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was “praised” by Trump himself as “British Trump”, only dared to say “due to the Soviet Lehmani brought the deaths of thousands of civilians and Westerners, and we will never feel sad for his death. “” But revenge will only cause more violence. “

Universal Wonderland: Israel and Brazil

The only leaders of the two countries that expressed their “special” attitude were Israel and Brazil. First, the Brazilian government led by President Jair Bolsonaro, known as “Tropical Trump”, stated: “After learning of the United States’ actions in Iraq in recent days, the Brazilian government has stated its support for the (United States) Disaster. “This statement is in line with the United States’ designation of the” Holy City Army “as a terrorist organization in 2007 and sanctions against Suleimani in the name of terrorist activities in 2011.

However, Brazil is far from the horizon and has no significant interests in the Middle East. Its stance is only ideological loyalty, which does not mean that Brazil has any practical interests in this.

On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used Trump ’s shoe as a cake, saying blushlessly: “President Trump is firm, powerful and swift and deserves high praise. I I want to renew that Israel stands completely with the United States in the justice challenge of security, peace and self-defense, “he said.

However, Netanyahu hurriedly returned from Greece immediately after the outbreak of the incident, and raised the Israeli embassy’s alert status, while other Israeli officials, even Netanyahu’s closed-door statement, also showed that “this is not Israel Things, but things in the United States, we don’t want to be involved. “

Nonetheless, if there are winners and losers in a game, Israel is the only country Trump can be considered a winner in this restlessness.

Israel’s inexorable grievances

In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, theoretically all Islamic countries are also on the same front as Palestine. However, in the case of countries such as Saudi Arabia, which often “speak out”, Iran after the Islamic Revolution in 1979 can be regarded as a stand. On the front line against Israel, the most obvious front is the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah’s clashes with Israel for years after the 1980s.

Since Israel invaded the Palestinian Liberation Organization in southern Lebanon in 1982, Hezbollah military forces have gradually formed. Since then, Israel’s three invasions of Lebanon in 1993, 1996 and 2006 were also due to its intention to clean and retaliate against Hezbollah military personnel.

The battle between the Israeli army and Hezbollah has been almost endless for decades. The most prominent recent confrontation was at the end of August and early September last year, when Israel launched attacks on Syria, Lebanon and Iraq on the grounds of stopping Iran from sending precision missiles to armed groups such as Hezbollah, causing Hizbollah casualties The latter fired anti-tank missiles into Israel, which in turn bombarded the villages in South Lebanon. You come and go like me, basically the norm.

By November of last year, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, when trying to explain to the international community that Iran was not anti-Semitism, said, “Proposing the eradication of Israel is not the same as advocating the elimination of the Jewish nation. It only means that the people in this land of Palestine, whether Muslims, Christians, or Jews, should also choose their government. “However, after Israel has defined its country’s constitutional status as a Jewish state, Israel is eliminated. For many Israelis, it is no different than the destruction of Jews. It can be seen how deep the conflict between Iran and Israel is.

Gulf situation creates Israeli pre-emptive excuses

Israel, widely regarded as possessing nuclear weapons, has always worried that Iran will eventually develop nuclear weapons, and always wanted to find an opportunity not to be retaliated, and to “preemptively strike” all Iran’s armed forces. This obviously depends on the United States.

However, in the era when Obama ruled the United States in 2015, the United States, as a traditional Israeli ally, successfully drew Iran to sign the “Iran nuclear agreement”, allowing the latter to gradually develop nuclear technology peacefully, and lifted the original sanctions, making Israel “preemptive strike The journey goes further and further. Netanyahu, who was furious at the time, pointed out that the agreement was a “historical error.”

Netanyahu, of course, met Trump who described the nuclear agreement as a “disaster” and “worst agreement ever.” Before Trump withdrew from the nuclear agreement in May 2018, Israel suddenly received an “Iranian nuclear archive” with nearly 100,000 documents, accusing Iran of having always been interested in developing nuclear weapons (rather than just nuclear energy technology). The act of tearing up the agreement is the first step. (According to a later analysis, the relevant files only showed that Iran had intended to develop nuclear weapons and suspended most of its work in 2003. There is no evidence that Iran has violated the terms of the nuclear agreement.)

Now that Trump has killed Suleimani, who is so prestigious in Iran and respected by both supporters and opponents, Iran cannot force Iran to retaliate directly (rather than through armed areas close to Iran) Organization) has gradually created an excuse for Israel’s “preemptive strike.” If the United States launches a retaliatory attack of any size on Iran’s missile attacks, this is likely to be sufficient ground for Israel to take the initiative; however, if the United States continues to respond by planning and acting, under such tensions, It seems only a matter of time before Israel will find an excuse for war.

Of course, even if Israel can preemptively remove Iran ’s threat of force, this will only be a “temporary gain”. In the long run, it will cause greater hatred between Israel and Iran, so that Israelis can only live in insecurity. Neither the nation of Israel nor the Jews on the land of Palestine can be said to have any real interest.

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