Todd Bishop
On January 15, current political observers around the world look forward to the signing of the first phase of the two-month trade war between China and the United States. Trump has been preparing for this for a long time. He broke the political convention and personally signed an agreement with the Vice Premier of the State Council of China and Liu He, the Chinese leader of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, at the White House with “full house”.
This should have been the most important thing in the world that day. However, just one or two hours before Trump was ready to meet with Liu He, Moscow, far away on the other side of the earth, suddenly snatched global attention on that day.
Putin’s constitutional amendment and all ministers resign
On the same day, when Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a State of the Union address to the Federal Assembly, he made a series of proposals for constitutional amendments, including limiting the term of the president to two terms. Congress participates in the appointment of cabinets, court judges and prosecutors in various ministries.
In response to the above proposal, Putin signed a working group on the proposed constitutional amendment and called on Russian citizens to vote on the constitutional amendment and make a final decision based on the results of the vote. It is generally believed that the constitutional amendment vote can be held on September 13 this year on the “Unified Voting Day”, and if approved, it can be implemented within 2020.
At the same time, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev then delivered a speech next to Putin, saying that Putin’s State of the Union Address not only pointed out the authorities’ priorities, but also put forward a number of significant changes to the Russian Constitution, and these changes Will bring about significant changes in the balance of state power. To give the president more room for reform, Medvedev said his cabinet should resign in accordance with Article 117 of the Russian Constitution.
President Putin signed an order authorizing the government’s resignation and asked the government to continue to perform its duties until a new government is formed. After working talks with Inland Revenue Commissioner Mikhail Mishustin, Putin proposed that he be prime minister. After receiving an agreed response, Putin nominated Mishukkin as the prime minister and submitted it to the National Assembly for consideration.
As for Medvedev’s whereabouts, Putin proposed the creation of a new vice-chairmanship at the Security Council of the Russian Federation to handle defense and security issues, and proposed to be Medvedev. The Federal Security Conference is convened by the President to assemble several important ministerial heads to integrate national security policies. It was formerly known as the Soviet National Security Conference and is chaired by the President of Russia.
A sudden change in style of Putin’s photo calendar
As soon as this news came out, most of the world’s public opinion swarmed, and the attention was above the Sino-US agreement. Throughout most reports, mainstream opinion believes that Putin’s proposal will disguise the power of the president’s successor and increase the influence of Congress. This is Putin’s way to continue to seize power in the future. For example, after the president’s term expires in 2024, By becoming prime minister, he is in power, as he did in 2008.
According to Andrei Karneev, a professor of the Russian State Economics Institute, and a senior political commentator and chief editor of the Kommersant, Mikhail Korostikov told 01 reporters that there are two main opinions in Russian public opinion. One is that as the national parliamentary elections approach, Putin decides Replace the unpopular Medvedev and his government; the second is that Putin is paving the way for the transfer of power and is more likely to adopt the so-called “Kazakhstan model”, that is, after stepping down as president, he will continue to borrow the chairmanship of the Kazakhstan Defense and Security Committee. Identity plays a role.
Regarding the current situation, each party has its own arguments, but the fact is that it is prepared to reduce the president’s constitutional power, increase the power of the parliament, increase the power of the judicial system, and perform a full set of operations in strict compliance with constitutional procedures.
When trying to understand these facts, what needs to be realized is that Russia has a long-standing serious problem, “who should fill his power vacuum after Putin leaves office”. Now, Putin has been in charge of Russia for 20 years as President and Prime Minister. According to the current term, he will step down from 2024, when he will turn 72.
In the 2020 photo calendar, Putin changed the previous style of “outdoor sportsman” and “tough guy”, no longer “shoulderless”, instead he was wearing a suit and talking with Merkel, Trump and other world leaders. The picture. This is only a side portrait, but it also has the feeling that Putin has begun to summarize his ruling career.
A more reasonable statement should be that Putin’s status in Russian politics and society, no matter how he dismisses public office, will inevitably have great political influence. And now he is consolidating the constitution and strengthening the administration of justice. It is not so much to stay in power after leaving the presidency, but more like to pave the way for Russia’s future after he leaves the presidency.
How to stabilize power transfer?
You know, when Putin took office of Russia’s president, Russia had just experienced the turbulence of nearly 10 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the political system had completely collapsed, the economic situation was almost collapsed, and social morale was low. Today’s Russian elite attaches great importance to “stability”, and no country can match it. It can be said that Russia’s relatively stable political system is now largely built by Putin. He will inevitably consider how to avoid the consequences of the power vacuum created after he left office.
Moscow political analyst Alexey Makarkin believes that Putin’s constitutional amendment is preparing him for the transition of power in 2024, and also said that this will reduce outside attention to his candidate for succession because his successor will not own Putin Dominated.
Therefore, since no one can exert the same influence as Putin, weakening the power of the leader is the most stable solution. The Kremlin has finally set about solving this transfer of power. Regarding this judgment, Gao Nianfu also agreed and believed that the current proposal to strengthen the power of the parliament and the judicial system and further solidify the role of the Federal Security Council is actually an arrangement that can be advanced and retreat, which is more in line with his thinking and Russian political needs.
