The impact of the new coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) in the United States has exceeded the initial imagination of all walks of life. Even the US President Trump, who has been downplaying the harmfulness of the virus, has changed his tone and admitted the severity of the epidemic. At the press conference on March 31), the country was warned that the country would experience the most difficult period in the next two weeks, and said the next day, “The way I view this infectious disease has changed. It is so contagious that no one has ever I have seen this situation … the flu (at the time of the outbreak) has never happened. “” The United States is continuing a full-scale war with this abominable virus. “
After witnessing the severe situation of the New York epidemic in recent weeks, I believe that few Americans will compare the new coronavirus with the flu virus. Trump’s use of the term “total war” has played a positive role in the current “war against epidemic disease” in the United States. However, it is still difficult to understand, or it is difficult to accept, why is the spread of the US epidemic so rapid? How did the epidemic become a “total war” in the United States?
Three reasons for the surge in diagnoses in the U.S.
As of 22:00 on April 5, Eastern Time, the cumulative number of new coronavirus pneumonia diagnosed in the United States has exceeded 332,000, and 9,498 people have died. Looking back a week ago, on March 29, only 103,000 people were diagnosed and 1,668 people died of illness. In just one week, the epidemic in the United States has rapidly intensified. There are three reasons for this.
First, a series of social factors in the United States are conducive to the spread of the virus. Taking only the CDC’s late Friday (April 3) to change its position and call on the public to wear a mask as an example, it can be seen that “only the sick need to wear a mask” is a deep-rooted American perception. And in California where the epidemic is relatively serious, the current cumulative diagnosis is about 0.035% of the total population (as of April 4, there were nearly 14,000 cases diagnosed in California), unless the government and the media further expand publicity, such as clarifying that “the virus mainly spreads by droplets.” The “infection rate is much greater than the diagnosis rate” and other facts. Otherwise, with the current infection rate, it is difficult for the public to wear masks, which is difficult for Americans to accept.
On the other hand, there are not so many masks in the United States, and most of them still need to be reserved for medical staff, public service personnel and other people with greater needs. New York Mayor Bill de Blasio made it easy to send out a request for assistance again last Wednesday (April 1): I hope the federal government will help the New York medical system raise the urgently needed 100,000 isolation suits, 400 ventilators, 3.3 million N95 masks and 210 Ten thousand surgical masks.
Second, the epidemic has been spreading in the United States for a long time. Even after the first patient was diagnosed on January 20, the virus has spread in the United States for more than two and a half months. In this process, both because of the government’s serious “knowing but not reporting” or “knowing and not paying attention”, but also because there has been no statistics of domestic epidemics, it has only recently begun to understand the actual situation, so that American society still has some problems in recent weeks. A large number of social activities allow the virus to spread indiscriminately when people take it lightly.
Third, the scale of detection of new coronavirus in the United States is rapidly expanding. According to the statement of Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House Epidemic Working Group, on March 25, and the data compiled by the US new crown epidemic database “The COVID Tracking Project”, the United States conducted a total of about 150,000 before March 16. During the test, 220,000 virus tests were carried out from March 16 to 25. As of April 5, more than 1.76 million tests have been conducted. The United States currently has more than 150,000 daily tests and will further increase the speed of testing, which is the objective main reason for the substantial increase in the number of diagnoses.
The scale of the final diagnosis may be millions
The daily increase in the number of confirmed cases in the United States has not slowed down, indicating the scale of infection. At present, we have seen the quarrel between Trump and Montana Governor Steve Bullock and others on the question of whether there are insufficient testing tools at the moment, and we have also seen the Federal Government ’s announcement on Friday The plan prohibits hospitals from charging patients with new coronary pneumonia without medical insurance. Instead, the federal government pays hospitals at the average level of medical insurance. Next, whether the anti-epidemic work of the federal, state, and county governments can be synchronized and efficiently coordinated will determine the subsequent trend of the epidemic.
At present, American patients are generally younger. The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention combined 72,314 case studies as of February 11th, showing that the mortality rate for patients aged 0 to 39 was 0.2%, 0.4% for 40 to 59, 1.3% for 50 to 59, and 60 to 69 3.6%, 8.0% from 70 to 79 years old, and 14.8% mortality rate from 80 years old. The impact of the new coronavirus on people of different ages is very different, and young people are more resistant, so the mortality rate is lower than that of the elderly. According to the weekly report released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on March 26, 40% of patients admitted to the United States are under 55 years old, and 20% are between 20 and 44 years old. The age composition of diagnosed patients is relatively younger than the world.
In terms of medical and epidemic prevention resources, according to the American Hospital Association, there are 924,107 beds (2.8 beds per 1,000 people) in American hospitals and 55,663 beds in ICUs. According to the weekly report released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday, about 19% of the newly diagnosed patients in the United States who are 19 to 64 years old and already have other diseases, about 19% need to be hospitalized and about 9% need to be admitted to the ICU; Of the newly diagnosed patients with primary disease, about 6.5% need to be hospitalized and about 1.9% need to be admitted to the ICU. About 28.5% of patients aged 65 and over with other primary diseases need to be hospitalized, about 14% need to be admitted to ICU; about 65% of patients over 65 years old, without primary disease, about 7.5% need to be hospitalized, 2.3% need to be admitted to ICU .
The mortality rate of the current US epidemic is 2.5%. As the scale of the test expands rapidly, it is expected to decline further. According to Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) last Tuesday (March 31 Japan’s statement, the White House reckons that even if society strictly abides by the social alienation rules, 100,000 to 240,000 people may be killed across the country, which means that the nation’s final diagnosis will be at least millions.
On the whole, coordination among various levels of government in the United States is not easy, the scale of the epidemic is huge, and although the medical technology ranks among the highest in the world, problems such as the lack of a medical insurance system and high medical costs have been criticized by various circles for a long time, and resources have become increasingly tight. Considering the current critical illness rate of about 10% and the productivity of medical resources and materials, the US epidemic is bound to face severe challenges. However, when the government is urgently needed to “compensate”, rationalize the coordination between the federal, state, and county governments, and strengthen the deployment between private enterprises and the medical system, American politics is still entangled by various factors, and even caught in the “American epidemic. The “fight over” public scuffle.
Party struggles continue, the White House rushes to find “the culprit”
This also starts when the number of diagnoses in the United States becomes the first in the world. At the beginning of the outbreak, American politics and society did not take it seriously. As the epidemic situation intensified, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States surpassed China on March 27, becoming the most in the world, which stirred up huge controversy in the country.
The Brookings Institution, a well-known American think tank, published a long article reviewing the U.S. government ’s response to the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in the first quarter, and ultimately attributed the outbreak of the U.S. epidemic to the White House ’s misjudgment and inaction. The Speaker of the House of Representatives of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, announced the establishment of a new House Committee on Tuesday, “all aspects” to supervise the federal government’s response to the epidemic, and said that it would not rule out the launch of a similar “9.11 “Terrorism Investigation Committee” investigation.
Trump compared Pelosi’s position with last year’s “Russia-Russia” investigation. He shouted “The endless investigation of party disputes has caused great harm to our country.” “This is witch hunting again and again.” On the same day, the White House published a letter from Trump to the Senate Minority Leader and New York State Senator Chuck Schumer, which read: “If you are ridiculous and lengthy, apart from raising my approval rate, The less effective impeachment scams waste less time and help the people of New York, so New York will not be as helpless as it is when facing this “invisible enemy.”
On the other hand, the White House and some Republican lawmakers who are at odds with their enemies are also busy searching for “the culprit.” Following the rebranding of the new crown virus as “Chinese virus” in mid-March, Trump questioned China’s official epidemic data at a press conference on March 26. Some Republicans have proposed a bill in Congress to investigate China ’s “insufficiency and suspicious attitude” to the New Crown Virus, and to pursue “China ’s harm to the international community”, and even erase US debt owed to China for compensation .
The target of “finding the culprit” is not only abroad, but also at home. At the White House Anti-epidemic Press Conference last Thursday (April 2), Peter Navarro, director of the White House Trade and Manufacturing Policy Office, attended the event infrequently, saying that the current price of protective materials was “hyped by the black market” and threatened to be “stern” Fight against hoarding materials. ” When Trump talked about the issue of material allocation, he vigorously criticized the state governments and said, “Each state should reserve its own materials. We (the federal government) are reserves, not orderers.”
Everything is prioritized. The United States ’Declaration of Independence stated that the government was established to protect people ’s“ right to life, freedom and the pursuit of happiness ”. Which of the three is most important? This may be a controversial issue. But what no one can object to is, how can one enjoy other rights if one’s life can’t be guaranteed? In this critical situation, it is the top priority to be able to save one more person and one more person.
As Trump said, the next two weeks will be a critical period for the epidemic in the United States. At present, the state governments are all working hard to raise medical supplies to fight the epidemic and seek help from the federal government when they cannot respond. No matter whether it is the White House, Congress, or governments at all levels, it should not be entangled at this moment with “the US epidemic cannot be the first in the world” or “who should be responsible for the epidemic.” It has even implemented mandatory measures and provided support to the frontline of anti-epidemic, with “saving lives” as the first priority.