Josh Weiner
The United States and China—two of the world’s most powerful nations—are plunging deeper into a dangerous trade war that threatens not just their economies, but the stability of the global marketplace.
Former President Donald Trump, in what appears to be a revival of his combative first-term style, has reignited tensions with sweeping tariff hikes aimed at Beijing. But critics say there’s no coherent strategy behind the dramatic moves—just improvised power plays and personal bravado.
Playing with Fire
Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to a staggering 145% has sparked an immediate response from Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping countered with tariffs of 125% on U.S. imports, declaring China was “not afraid” of escalation.
While both economies have reasons to avoid an all-out economic conflict, the current trajectory points toward prolonged instability. Trump’s approach, echoing his signature deal-making tactics, seems more focused on brinkmanship than diplomacy—pushing adversaries to the edge in hopes they blink first.
But this isn’t a Manhattan real estate deal. It’s a face-off between global superpowers with trillions at stake and no clear exit ramp.
Misreading the Room
Trump’s administration appears to underestimate China’s domestic political calculus. According to reports, U.S. officials privately advised Beijing not to retaliate and even suggested Xi request a call with Trump—a move that would have been politically untenable for China, whose leadership is deeply conscious of national pride and sovereignty.
“President Xi is not a negotiator in the traditional sense,” explains Zongyuan Zoe Liu, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Negotiations happen at lower levels, and Beijing prefers formal, structured diplomacy—not off-the-cuff calls or public showdowns.”
In other words, Trump’s freewheeling, top-down negotiation style might work in boardrooms, but it’s a poor fit for statecraft.
A Collision Course
Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the new tariffs are “prohibitive” and could trigger massive disruptions across both economies—and the world. From consumer prices in the U.S. to unemployment in China, the impact could be severe.
Decades of economic integration mean the two countries are deeply interdependent. American consumers benefit from affordable goods manufactured in China, while Beijing has leveraged U.S. trade to power its industrial rise. Severing these ties could drive inflation in the U.S., shrink global trade, and fuel unrest in China—particularly among the small businesses that form the backbone of its economy.
This wouldn’t be a short-term spat—it could be a drawn-out test of which population can endure the most economic pain.
Trump’s Gamble with Global Alliances
There is one way Washington might be able to pressure China more effectively: rallying allies for a unified front. Countries like Japan, South Korea, India, and Vietnam have shared concerns about Beijing’s trade practices. Working in concert, they could push for reforms on issues such as intellectual property theft and market access.
However, Trump’s “America First” foreign policy has alienated many of these potential partners. From mocking the European Union to antagonizing Canada and Mexico, Trump has weakened long-standing relationships that were once pillars of U.S. global influence.
Canada, in particular, has been vocal in its frustration. After weeks of tariff threats and sovereignty disputes, new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney declared the traditional U.S.-Canada alliance “over.”
And Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and other multilateral trade efforts further undermined the chance to build a strong coalition against China.
A Dangerous Path Without a Map
Asked directly what his endgame is with China, Trump gave a vague response: “Look, for years we’ve been ripped off… but that’s the big one.” For critics, that lack of clarity is alarming. The stakes are simply too high for guesswork.
The broader concern is that Trump’s approach to China may not just fail to produce a better trade deal—it could fracture global supply chains, fuel economic uncertainty, and provoke geopolitical instability for years to come.
With no clear strategy, no reliable allies, and no diplomatic roadmap, the United States is not just risking a costly trade war—it’s charging into it blindfolded.
