Russia has made it clear—both in policy and practice—that it does not support regime change in Iran. Moscow values stability, continuity, and strategic alignment with Tehran, and any effort to replace the current Iranian leadership—especially through foreign-backed intervention or internal upheaval—would be strongly opposed by the Kremlin.
Here’s why:
1. Strategic Alliance Over Decades
Russia and Iran share deep military, economic, and political ties. They have cooperated closely on:
- Military operations in Syria to support Bashar al-Assad
- Energy partnerships through OPEC+ and infrastructure development
- Counterbalancing U.S. and NATO influence in the Middle East
The current Iranian leadership is seen as a reliable and predictable partner—something Russia would not want disrupted.
2. Opposition to Western-Backed Regime Change
Moscow has consistently opposed regime change efforts orchestrated or supported by the West, especially when they result in instability—as seen in:
- Iraq (2003)
- Libya (2011)
- Ukraine (2014)
Russia views such interventions as dangerous precedents that often lead to chaos, civil war, and loss of sovereignty. The Kremlin believes Iran’s government must be preserved to prevent similar outcomes in the region.
3. Fear of Power Vacuum and Instability
If the current regime in Iran were to collapse, the consequences could include:
- Civil unrest or armed conflict between rival factions
- Rise of extremist elements or pro-Western groups
- Disruption of oil supply routes in the Persian Gulf
- Loss of Russia’s geopolitical leverage in the region
For Moscow, preserving the status quo is safer than dealing with the uncertainty of regime change.
4. Protecting Its Interests in the Region
A stable Iran under familiar leadership allows Russia to:
- Secure its southern borders
- Maintain military cooperation and intelligence-sharing
- Expand influence in energy markets and regional diplomacy
If a new regime were hostile to Russia or leaned toward the West, Moscow’s strategic interests could suffer significantly.
Final Thought
Russia’s stance on Iran is grounded in pragmatism, not ideology. Regime change introduces chaos, weakens allies, and risks shifting the balance of power away from Russia. Therefore, the Kremlin will continue to support Iran’s existing leadership and oppose any external or internal movement aimed at overthrowing it—no matter the global pressure.
