Todd Bishop
Osaka Xite has pressed the pause button for the China-US trade war. Although the China-US consensus on the stipulations has its own focus, in general, the consensus recognized by both China and the United States is that the United States will no longer impose new tariffs. US President Donald Trump said at the time that China and the United States would start negotiations. Officials in the United States have for a long time disclosed the specific progress of trade negotiations.
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on July 3 that the Chinese and American representatives will talk in the coming week and will arrange face-to-face meetings. At the same time, Reuters quoted an official from the US Trade Representative Office as saying that the two countries will hold a ministerial-level call next week. Kudlow said on July 5 that US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have been talking to Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and plan to hold more dialogue. Face-to-face conversations are also likely to happen in the near future. Trump spoke to reporters on July 7th about China-US trade issues. A reporter asked: “Is Ambassador Letsh Hize and Finance Minister Munuchin meet with Chinese officials this week?” Trump responded, “We talked very well with China. Yes, they will meet. “
It can be seen from the remarks made by the United States that the Chinese and American negotiators will not only talk, but may even hold a meeting. However, it is worth noting that the Chinese side only said that China and the United States will maintain communication before July 9, and did not disclose any information about the upcoming negotiations between China and the United States. Until July 9th, the official news released by both China and the United States showed that Wright Heze and Mnuchin had a phone call with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan. The US said that it discussed the possibility of formal meeting negotiations. The dialogue was “good progress” and “very constructive”. The Chinese version only said that the call was made, and there was not much expression about the content and progress of the call.
Three conditions in Beijing
At the same time, Beijing’s recent tough stance is very obvious. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng responded to the China-US trade war at the 8th World Peace Forum on July 8. China will never accept a humiliating agreement that restricts its own development and blocks the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. A spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said at a press conference on July 4 that “the United States imposes tariffs on China’s exports to the United States unilaterally. This is the starting point for China-US economic and trade frictions. If the two sides can reach an agreement, the tariffs imposed must be all cancel”. “If an agreement is reached, it should be a two-way balance, equality and mutual benefit. The core concerns of China must be properly resolved.” “Agricultural trade is an important issue that needs to be discussed by both sides. It is hoped that the two sides will find a solution to the problem on the basis of equality and mutual respect based on the fundamental interests of the two peoples.”
In May of this year, the China-US negotiations broke down. Liu He proposed in Washington at that time that three conditions must be met to reach an agreement: first, the tariff must be abolished; second, the procurement figures are realistic; third, any country has its own dignity, The protocol text must be balanced. The recent statement by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce is itself a reaffirmation of China’s core position. That is to cancel the tariff, the balance agreement must be achieved. Although Trump said that China promised to buy American agricultural products after the meeting, neither the Chinese Ministry of Commerce nor the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs kept a close eye on procurement. A spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that it is possible to discuss the purchase of agricultural products, which means that China does not recognize the ultimate commitment.
It can be seen that Beijing’s demands and demands have not changed since the Xi’an Conference. In fact, when the Chinese official held the G20 media briefing on June 24, Wang Fuwen, the vice minister of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce who participated in the trade negotiations, said that both China and the United States should make concessions.
Before the G20, China and the United States should give in to the Beijing after the G20, what is happening behind this? How do you view Beijing’s current strength in the United States?
Brewing the second phase of the war
The attitude of the United States is by no means simple to no longer impose new tariffs on China and to let Huawei be so soft.
Trump told reporters at the White House on July 1 that China has had a great advantage in the trade for the United States for many years. Therefore, the two countries cannot reach a five-fifth agreement, which must be beneficial to the United States. White House economic adviser Kudlow and US trade representative Wright Heze also said they would not accept the so-called “balanced agreement” because the China-US trade situation is very uneven. This is tantamount to rejecting the requirement that the agreement proposed by the Chinese side must be balanced.
Earlier on June 30, Kudlow said in an interview with Fox News that the “exemption of the ban” on Huawei does not mean “big bang”, and Huawei is still on the “entity list.” White House trade consultant Peter Navarro said in an interview with CNBC on July 2: “Basically, what we did was to allow the sale of chips to Huawei, and they were all low-tech products. National security has any impact,” he said. The chips sold to Huawei are less than $1 billion a year. “In the short term, it is a small plan.”
The White House officials’ intention is to continue to downplay the concept of concession to China. Although China and the United States reached a consensus on not levying new tariffs, the US appeal to China itself has not changed. The United States does not believe that there is room for compromise after understanding Beijing’s demands. The taxation of Europe, the beating of India and Japan, and the sale of Taiwan to Taiwan after the special session, shows that the United States does not believe that it cannot pressure China to make concessions.
In the past, the United States may have been too underestimated, perhaps too optimistic. Now, the US policy toward China is on the one hand to maintain a moratorium on taxation and on the other hand to prepare more chips. The United States began to face up to the trade war with China. The United States looks forward to achieving its goals in the depths of the future.
China and the United States entered the recession period, and also entered the late stage of the second stage of the brewing. Both China and the United States are carefully planning the next phase of action. Both China and the United States are not optimistic about trade negotiations, and they are not pessimistic. This is the result of the trade war entering the stalemate phase. The trade war will not end in a short period of time, and it will be normal for China and the United States to repeatedly saw.
After the deepening of strategic understanding, the strategic strength will be enhanced
Beijing is tough, indicating that it is ready for the next phase of competition. The toughness of Beijing is also the performance of the strategic strength after the deepening of strategic understanding.
Beijing’s understanding of Trump is changing through a trade war. Trump himself is not as strong in ideological color. However, Trump’s aides are complicated, some people have strong ideological colors, and some people are interested in it. Beijing believes that changes in Trump government personnel will lead to a new situation in trade negotiations.
Trump has entered the campaign period. In order to retain his political achievements, he has provoked the Iranian issue and tried to make progress on the North Korean issue. If the issue between China and the United States becomes a state of affairs or election of Trang, it will inevitably affect Trump’s decision. The ups and downs of the US stock market in the past have shown that the impact of the China-US trade war on the US economy is not as simple as simply increasing tariffs. What China does is enough to affect US economic confidence.
Beijing’s toughness lies in the fact that Beijing has mastered the bargaining chip that can influence Trump’s decision. In the past, Beijing hoped to avoid the negative impact of the trade war on its own economy. Now the impact of the trade war on Trump is becoming an aspect that Beijing can use.
The attitude of the international community towards the trade war is changing. The economies of Europe, Japan and India initially hoped to reconcile with the United States, and now they are not willing to bow to the United States. This has given Beijing an international response to the toughness of the United States. The struggle between Beijing and the United States is definitely not isolated. Beijing has begun to have peers.
In other words, the trade war has hit today, the battle situation has changed, and Beijing has more choices. Beijing has continued tough space, and Beijing’s determination to defend its position has been further enhanced.
