Despite assertions from Tehran that the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed, the U.S. administration offers a starkly different picture, contending that significant volumes of oil continue to flow out of the Persian Gulf. This divergence in narratives highlights the ongoing high-stakes standoff between the two nations, particularly as global energy markets grapple with supply concerns. The U.S. seems to be operating under the assumption that it possesses considerable leverage in this geopolitical chess match.
Recent traffic data initially suggested a mere trickle of ships openly traversing the critical waterway following the collapse of a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. This led to widespread speculation about an impending supply shock for global energy markets. However, a less visible but crucial trend has emerged: more tankers are reportedly sailing “dark,” intentionally disabling their transponders to obscure their positions and movements. This clandestine activity complicates efforts to accurately assess the true volume of oil passing through the strait.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright provided specific figures this week, stating that the seven-day average for oil exiting the strait reached nearly 9 million barrels per day. He attributed this sustained flow to the combined efforts of the U.S. military and its allies in the Gulf region. Furthermore, Wright noted in a post on X that an additional 5 million to 7 million barrels per day are being transported via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities. This brings the total average oil flow to approximately 15 million barrels daily, a figure still short of the 20 million barrels exported before the conflict escalated. Echoing this sentiment, a U.S. official informed Axios that roughly 8 million barrels are quietly moving out of the Gulf each night through a southern lane within the Strait of Hormuz, facilitated by U.S. military assistance.
Before the ceasefire dissolved, the U.S. military had guided tankers along an alternative route hugging the Omani coast, providing a measure of protection that allowed enough ships to exit the Gulf and temporarily ease pressure on global oil markets. This tactic, however, provoked Iranian attacks on vessels attempting to bypass its traditional corridor, reigniting hostilities and leading directly to the current impasse. While the Trump administration presents these robust figures, some oil market researchers, like Rory Johnston, offer a slightly more conservative estimate. Johnston believes average volumes out of Hormuz peaked at 7 million barrels per day over the past week, acknowledging the inherent uncertainty introduced by “dark transits.” He also estimates pipeline exports at around 4 million barrels per day.
Beyond dark transits, another method gaining traction for moving oil supplies through the strait is ship-to-ship transfers, a practice previously employed by Iran and Russia to circumvent Western sanctions. This involves tankers exiting the Gulf, transferring their cargo to another vessel off the coast of Oman, and then returning through the strait to repeat the process. Not all such operations go unnoticed, which explains the continued Iranian attacks even as Tehran claims a complete shutdown of the waterway. Conversely, the U.S. naval blockade has effectively prevented Iran from exporting its own oil via the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off a vital revenue stream for the regime. Meanwhile, other Gulf oil producers, including Iraq, which heavily relies on the strait, are successfully moving their crude through these less conventional methods. Johnston underscored this disparity on X, pointing out that a “hefty chunk of non-Iranian crude” is still getting out, unlike Iran’s oil.
Despite these efforts to maintain oil flows, global markets still face a supply deficit, compelling consuming nations to draw down already dwindling strategic reserves. The continued, albeit reduced, flow of oil from the Gulf does offer some breathing room, evidenced by a decline in crude prices since the ceasefire’s collapse last month. This reprieve also affords the Trump administration more time to intensify its economic pressure on Iran through the naval blockade, a strategy some officials in Tehran have reportedly admitted is contributing to an economic collapse. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent alluded to further escalation, telling Newsmax that Iran would face an “economic isolation like the world has never seen before,” combined with the ongoing blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, preventing anything from entering or exiting Iranian ports.
