Todd Bishop
Although the Conservative Party still leads the Labor Party by nearly 10 percentage points in the polls, Prime Minister Johnson’s election is still in danger: the floods in the north of England, Johnson arrived only six days after the flood, and was scolded by local people on the street. It’s too late.” He’s originally planned to visit a bakery in the southwestern United Kingdom, and was forced to cancel because of local demonstrations.
The Brexit party still wants to be the king
Thursday (November 14) is the candidate’s registration deadline for the December 12 early elections in the UK. Although Nigel Farage, the leader of the Brexit party, who was leading the “Brokesian faction”, could not resist the pressure of the Brexit gold lord and the politicians (including Trump on the other side of the Atlantic), the final decision was not for the Conservative Party. The 317 constituencies who won the 2017 general election sent candidates, but insisted on competing with the Conservatives in the Labor Party-controlled Brexit election.
Farachi issued a video on Twitter on Thursday, referring to the Conservative Party’s noble status in the House of Representatives in exchange for the Brexit party’s withdrawal, and the Brexit party’s candidates received thousands of phone calls and email threats. They retired. However, the Conservative Party has nothing to say, and it will not “exclude alliance with other parties”, but it does not rule out that some members of the Conservative Party privately and acquainted with the Brexit party candidates mentioned the withdrawal requirements.
According to the number of the polling agency YouGov, there are currently 86% of Britons who identify themselves as Brexit or Europeans, and 68% of those who identify themselves to any political party. If Johnson can represent the Brexit in the Conservative Party alone, his chances of winning are extremely high.
However, Farage is not an idiot. The Brexit and Conservatives will split the source of the Brexit vote. Although the overall number of the Brexit party will be reduced, it may cause the Conservative Party to obtain support from the Brexit Party. Stabilize the majority situation. This is a chance to be a king, and Falach will certainly not let go.
The Conservatives are hard to break out of England
In addition to the crisis of the Brexit party, the Conservative Party has to face regional disputes. First of all, in Scotland, where the independence of the people and the people are equal, whether it is the independent supporters of the Brexit or the Europeans, they will vote for the Scottish National Party (SNP), and the Conservative Party can only represent the unified people who support the Brexit. . Although Johnson calls himself “the guardian of the United Kingdom” and proactively attacking the Labour Party will destroy the United Kingdom, trying to label the Conservative Party as the only unified party, but because the moderates have almost gone after the Conservative Party, the flag of Brexit is clear and difficult. I hope to get support from Scotland in Europe.
Secondly, Wells, who controls the 65% of the seats in the Labour Party, although the Conservative Party supports the Labour Party, the polls show that Wells’ support for the European Union’s public opinion is on the rise, leading the Brexit supporters by 10%. Under the circumstances, as long as the Labor Party and Lib Dem, which support the direct cancellation of the Brexit, have not seen any major votes, the Labor Party can still maintain its advantage.
Some Wells political scholars have described that if Johnson fails to win any of the Welsh seats from the Labor Party, it will represent this year’s Christmas Johnson will be the latest “pre-prime prime minister” in the UK.
The myth of splitting the Europeans?
Now that the Liberal Democrats are in full swing, their party leader, Jo Swinson, is reluctant to cooperate with the Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in any form. Such a situation may lead to the split of the source of the European Union, which is beneficial to the Conservative Party and relatively reduces the impact of the Brexit Party vote.
However, fewer and fewer British voters are loyal to one political party today, so strategic voting is expected to be very high. According to YouGov’s follow-up poll before and after the pre-election in the British House of Commons on October 30, the Labor Party’s support rose from 21% before the vote to 27% after the vote, while the Liberal Democratic Party’s support fell by 2%. Breaking the momentum of the Liberal Democrats claiming to chase the Labour Party as the second largest party.
It is so strategic for voters to use their mouths to “vote”. When they actually vote, they believe that many of the voters who support the Liberal Democratic Party will be able to win the best for the Labour Party. Maybe, in the end, I might vote for the Labour Party.
“The relative division of the European Union and the relative unity of the Brexit” have always been the biggest advantage of Johnson’s election campaign. However, it is hard to predict whether this advantage will continue until the voter decides to make a decision.
Johnson recently told the media that although the Conservative Party polls are leading the Labor Party, he is still “not determined to win” the election results. This may be the frank words of Johnson who are accustomed to gibberish and only ask for funny.
