Todd Bishop
On November 20th, the US Congress formally passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act and submitted it to the President for signature. On the 19th, Vice President Mike Pence said that if Hong Kong’s demonstrations turned into violent treatment, Washington would have difficulty signing a trade agreement with China.
On the one hand, the turbulent situation in Hong Kong, and on the other, the China-US trade negotiations, which still have variables, are once again tied together by the official words of the United States. However, the two issues of trade negotiations and the situation in Hong Kong are only tied together in the words of some people in the United States. Zhongnanhai and the White House are unlikely to bind China-US trade negotiations with the situation in Hong Kong. The promotion of China-US trade negotiations is not affected by the situation in Hong Kong.
What needs to be clarified is that the Hong Kong Bill of Rights on Human Rights and Democracy will go through the formalities. The US will categorically ignore the Chinese party’s ultimate warning of “not to be prejudiced,” because in today’s situation in Hong Kong and China-US relations, US officials If you don’t make a statement, you will be criticized domestically. This is the current state of politics in the United States today.
After the US Congress and the White House have passed the bill, US government departments and organizations can formulate a series of specific measures on this basis. Some measures, like the bill itself, are only symbolic measures of political correctness. Such measures will certainly be introduced one after another; some measures will have practical effects, such as sanctions against individuals, and such as not recognizing Hong Kong’s status as a free trade port. Whether such measures with actual impact will be launched and when they will be launched will depend on the intensity of the China-US game. Correspondingly, the Chinese side will also adopt a “symbolic” or “practical impact” measure to counter it.
Therefore, the Hong Kong issue is undoubtedly part of the overall game between China and the United States. But China-US trade negotiations are another matter.
Like China and the United States, around the attack and defense of Hong Kong, China-US trade negotiations are also part of the China-US game, but these two things will not be bound. The reason is very simple. Both China and the United States want to reach a trade agreement.
For Washington, the goal of increasing tariffs and opening negotiations is to change the “unfair” US-China trade structure. This goal can already be achieved through China’s increased procurement of agricultural products to the United States and China’s accelerated openness. The reform has been resolved. Even though the issue of China’s speed of reform is still controversial, it is still a controversy that can be overcome in stages; the second is to provide Trump with enough “political achievements” to give extra points to electoral politics. I am very happy to cooperate with Trump, “playing the show.”
For Beijing, the fundamental goal of trade negotiations with the United States is to ensure the peace and stability of China-US relations and create stable external conditions for China to continue to complete unsuccessful development and reform. As for Beijing’s “China and the United States to jointly withdraw tariffs”, it is only the appearance of this fundamental goal. In order to achieve this goal, Beijing will increase procurement of goods to the United States, and will also meet the US demands for reform in China within the framework of its own reform plan.
In short, China did not want to trade with the United States from the beginning, and when Trump started the trade war, he thought about how to end the trade war beautifully. Both countries have a strong signing of trade agreements and a consensus on ending trade wars.
Then the question is coming. Will the White House attempt to reform China in accordance with the demands of the US? Will it attempt to use the unrest in Hong Kong? Do you want to try to bind the Hong Kong issue to the China-US trade negotiations? I definitely want to think. But it is also the unilateral idea of the US. For Beijing, the Hong Kong issue is purely domestic, and “maintaining national sovereignty” is the core responsibility of the CCP. Therefore, once the US tries to talk about Hong Kong in the process of trade negotiations, even if Beijing abandons negotiations, even if the trade war continues, and even China-US relations deteriorate, it will not negotiate with the government on sovereignty issues. The Chinese side repeated “talking, the door is open; playing, always accompanying”, the meaning of the title is here. In this regard, there should be no doubt in all circles.
On November 21st, the spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce of China said at a regular press conference that “the economic and trade teams of China and the United States will continue to maintain close communication.” “China is willing to work together with the US on the basis of equality and mutual respect. When properly addressing each other’s core concerns and striving to reach the first phase of the agreement, this means that the US has not bound the Hong Kong issue with China-US trade negotiations.
On the same day, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Yan Shuang held a regular press conference. Some reporters have asked questions that the US has signed the Hong Kong-related bill into law. What measures will China take? Will it affect the economic and trade consultations between the two sides? Regarding the first half of Hong Kong’s problems, he has maintained China’s consistent position and rhetoric on this issue. He pointed out that “if the US is willing to go its own way, China will take effective measures to resolutely counter it.” “Don’t underestimate China’s safeguarding national sovereignty.” We must not underestimate China’s determination to implement the one-nation, two-system principle and safeguard Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability. Regarding the issue of China-US trade and economics, Yan Shuang has a calm tone and said that “China hopes that the US can move in line with China and find a solution to the problem on the basis of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit. This is beneficial to the economies of China and the United States. Conducive to the world economy.”
These two statements also mean that the US has not bound the Hong Kong issue with the China-US trade negotiations.
We must know that even though China and the United States have had fierce verbal conflicts on the Hong Kong issue, even though China-US talks may have more twists and turns, even though China-US trade negotiations and Hong Kong issues are under the same background of the China-US game, even some people in the US. Trying to borrow the situation in Hong Kong in the process of China-US trade negotiations is more profitable for the United States. The Hong Kong issue and the China-US trade agreement are impossible to bind.
