Key to victory in UK elections: Brexit vs left revolution

In this early election, the scandals of the two major parties are endless: Johnson was secretly criticized by former lovers as “dismissal”; the Conservative Party disguised its social media account as a “factcheck” organization and was criticized as deception Voters; Labor party is accused of anti-Semitism, Conservatives are also discriminated against; Muslims cited online documents stating that the Conservative government has plans to increase U.S. business participation in the British National Health Service (NHS) after Brexit, but this document The source is alleged to be related to the Russian organization that interfered in the election; Johnson has also eluded the BBC’s famous spicy hosted interviews, giving the impression of “turtle”.

However, these scandals do not seem to change the general trend of the election. According to a comprehensive poll by Britain Elects, the Conservative Party supports 42.9%, is 33% ahead of Labor, and 12.6% from the Liberal Democrat (Lib Dem). In the polls of the prime ministers, Johnson also led Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn by nearly 20%.

Is Brexit more important than economic reforms?

With regard to domestic policy, the Conservative Party, which is based on the belief of “do less and do less,” has gradually talked less of “remarkable” commitments such as the construction of 40 new hospitals and returned to the “Get Brexit Done” On top of the core proposition, even if we talk about domestic policies, we will focus on issues closely related to Brexit, such as “tightening immigration policies.”

In contrast, Harbin has already stated that Labour will remain neutral in its asserted second referendum on Brexit, focusing its campaign on a total opposition to the “neo-liberalism” of former Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and the former Labour Party. Prime Minister Tony Blair’s “Third Way” held high on a series of left-wing policies, hoping to stir up revolutionary enthusiasm among the people.

The Labor Party advocates a massive increase in government spending and tax increases, increasing government expenditure as a percentage of GDP from 37.8% today to 44%, and increasing taxes on companies and the rich to focus resources on society. Security, medical care, schools, university tuition exemptions, “green industrial revolution” and other projects.

At the same time, the Labor Party also advocates the nationalization of water supply, railways, postal services, power grids and broadband networks, and will require large companies to transfer 10% of their shares to public ownership of employees. One seat is represented by an employee.

These “left-wing revolution” policies are actually very popular among the people, but the popular support of the Labour Party has always been lower than that of the Conservative Party. Perhaps voters’ adherence to the issue of “solving Brexit” is still heavier than these various economic reforms.

“Headwind” before the election for the last few days

Although the general election is only a few days away, the Conservative Party, which suffered the painful experience of being chased by 20% of the Labor Party in 2017, is not dare to neglect. In addition to talking less about the policy and more about Brexit to keep the popularity ahead In addition, in the last election television debate last Saturday (December 7), Johnson arrived five hours in advance to prepare for the scene. It can be seen that although he said that his opponent, Harbin, was a “weak chicken”, he actually did not dare to underestimate him.

In fact, Johnson does have reasons to be cautious. According to the Sunday Times on Sunday (8), in the model calculations commissioned by the same polling company, the Conservative Party’s estimated majority of seats has been obtained from two weeks ago. 48 seats fell to 38 seats. At the same time, recent individual polls also show that the gap between the Conservative Party and the Labor Party is narrowing.

In addition, according to an evaluation commissioned by the polling organization Best for Britain, a second referendum, as long as there are a total of 41,000 voters in 36 swinging constituencies, their votes are most likely to be won by strategic voting Of the opposition candidate (rather than the one he really wants), the Conservative Party will lose the majority in Congress.

Liberal Democrat Jo Swinson, who advocates the immediate cancellation of Brexit, has always refused to formally cooperate with the Labor Party. However, she has seen the situation of the Conservative Party flourish and has recently begun to soften her voice. As a leader, the two parties will have room for cooperation. On Saturday, she also said that she could “understand” that supporters might not support the Liberal Democratic Party and make a “strategic vote.” It seemed to imply that LDP voters should at the last minute “Abandoned Car and Warm.”

Under these headwinds, Johnson will seize the short time of the election campaign to visit major swinging constituencies, hoping to maintain the public opinion advantage of the Conservative Party.

Johnson’s odds remain stable

However, this headwind came too late, and it is really difficult to disperse the Conservative Party.

First of all, the Labour Party and the Liberal Democratic Party have not yet formally cooperated, and it is difficult to mobilize voters to effectively allocate votes. Secondly, Labour ’s over-left policy has already worried some Liberal Democratic voters. In addition, Hao Erbin ’s “neutrality” on the issue of Brexit has made it more difficult for the Labour Party to win the strategic support of the Liberal Democratic Party ’s Europeans.

Moreover, due to the declining party loyalty of British voters, and the polling companies’ experience in individual constituencies may not be sufficient, many regional polls have contradictory results, so that voters do not know even if they want to vote strategically. What strategy to take. Although media such as The Guardian have obvious anti-Johnson positions, strategic voting pages in various regions can “guide the voters”, but the accuracy of their data is also questionable.

After all, if Johnson can lead the Conservative Party to win a majority in Congress, the main reason is that Labor thinks that it can focus on left-wing revolutionary policies, change the nature of this “disguised Brexit referendum,” and let the Liberal Democrats hold the flag of staying in Europe, thinking that Opportunities eventually led to the support of the Europeans to split and gave the Conservative Party an election gift. To this day, with the election approaching, it is too late to oppose the parties to change their positions.

If there is no major political earthquake in the next few days, Johnson’s “Brexit Revolution” will be “repaired” on December 12.