Josh Weiner
After four years of relative calm, the conflict between Yemen’s Houthi movement and the Saudi-backed government has reignited into full-scale war, with the Saudi-led coalition declaring its goal is nothing short of eliminating the group entirely.
That ambition faces steep odds. The Houthis, once dismissed as a lightly armed militia fighting from pickup trucks, have since taken control of the capital Sanaa and now govern territory holding the majority of Yemen’s population, having already withstood years of Saudi-backed offensives as well as US, UK and Israeli airstrikes targeting their attacks on Red Sea shipping and Israel.
Much of the Houthis’ resilience comes down to geography. The group’s strongholds in the northern and western highlands around Sanaa and Saada sit amid steep mountain ranges, deep valleys and narrow passes, terrain that favors ambushes, shields weapons depots from detection and lets fighters move in small, hard-to-target groups.
Military analysts note a key asymmetry in the fighting: ground forces backed by air power can retake coastal areas relatively effectively, but intercepting missiles launched from fortified mountain positions is a far harder problem, one that has largely eluded both Saudi and allied Western militaries throughout the conflict.
That dynamic underscores the core challenge facing Riyadh: the Houthi threat may no longer be one that military firepower alone can resolve, regardless of how much is spent on the campaign or how determined the stated objective of eliminating the group may be.
With the war now escalating again after years of relative quiet, the terrain and tactics that frustrated previous Saudi-led efforts remain largely unchanged, raising doubts about whether this renewed campaign can achieve what earlier ones could not.
