Josh Weiner
Later on May 19th, local time, starting from April 11th, it will be launched in seven stages. The 70-day Indian election has come to an end. According to polling station export polls summarized by major Indian media, India’s current Prime Minister Modi and his “BH People’s Party” are currently in a leading position. Although the intelligence given by the major media in India is different from each other, one thing is basically certain that Narendra Modi will continue to serve as Prime Minister of India after 2019.
For the outside world, Modi’s victory in this election may prove the recognition of the five-year performance of the People’s Party in India. The People’s Party regime led by Modi and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) behind it will, therefore, have a greater chance of defeating the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the Congress Party.
It is undeniable that this election may still have the last suspense: whether Modi is a big victory or a small victory; whether the People’s Party will win a majority in the parliament as in the 2014 general election, or must rely on allies to form a government. But in general, this kind of problem is a minor detail compared to India’s macro issue.
At the moment, the unique, exaggerated and subtle social and economic situation that India developed after entering the 21st century has almost become a dynamic and balanced spectacle, but this spectacle is by no means what New Delhi’s authorities expect to see.
The analysis believes that after the global economic growth slowed down in recent years, the Indian economy has indeed begun to exert its strength: India’s economic growth rate in the 2017 to 2018 fiscal year has reached 7.2%, and the economic growth in the 2018-2019 fiscal year is also expected to reach 7.2%. However, New Delhi is still plagued by traditional structural contradictions including backward infrastructure, lagging supporting laws, high financial bad debts, and imbalanced income distribution.
This means that when Modi basically won the election, he will be annoyed to discover that various social problems in India are still with him.
Modi may have really won the election
For analysts who are accustomed to observing elections through the “export polls”, the storm of the Australian election has made them stunned: after the election, the export poll showed that the Labour Party won, but the results of the vote later showed that the Liberal Party won.
Therefore, when India’s 70-year election in 2019 finally showed its initial results, many people would still be suspicious. However, considering that India’s election vote is a segmented vote, in addition, in 2014, Indian poll analysts also successfully confirmed Modi’s victory based on these data. Therefore, even if the accuracy of this news is doubtful, it is enough to let Modi’s People’s Party camp celebrate the victory.
In fact, Modi has also hinted at his victory ahead of May 17. At a press conference held by the People’s Party, “No Questions”, Modi even predicted that he would win. He also stressed that since the People’s Party government “has the majority of seats”, the party will continue to “restore the ruling after obtaining the five-year public opinion authorization” will become a foregone conclusion.
Faced with the situation that Modi is about to celebrate, the UPA side of the Congress and its UPA alliance are undoubtedly dissatisfied. Also on May 17, Rahul Gandhi expressed a cautious attitude towards Modi’s press conference. However, after the election, Rahul took the lead in firing on social media and criticized the Indian Election Commission for “submissive to Modi and his party.” Mamata Banerjee, the politician of India’s “Grassroots National Congress”, also criticized the “export polls” from various media, which is most likely a “rumor” spread by the People’s Party authorities.
In general, the major opposition parties in India have already prepared for the unity to deal with Modi, which also confirms that the election of the Modi camp must be false.
The price that the winner has to bear
However, Modi’s victory also means that he will continue to pick up a series of messes in India’s politics, economy, society, and even diplomacy. Judging from the many details at the beginning of 2019, the Modi authorities even showed some tiredness.
In the context of severe agricultural disasters and widespread youth unemployment, Modi avoided concerns about his economic record during the campaign. Instead, he placed his main focus on national security issues during 142 gatherings in the electoral season. At the last rally in Madhya Pradesh, Modi even shouted the slogan “I want to defeat the enemy and support the People’s Party.” When this situation is linked to the “surgical blow” of the failure of the Indian Air Force in February and March, I am afraid that everyone will laugh at it.
It must be admitted that after 2015, Modi led India’s economic growth rate beyond China. New Delhi’s codename “ABCD” is also eye-catching for Action, Business, Clean, and Digitized reforms.
But by 2019, the display of the Indian-style “PPT” has become impatient. Not to mention that India’s three major industries are themselves a relatively vague concept. On the one hand, India will soon become the world’s most populous country and a large-scale economy with rapid growth in a few years. His achievements cannot be ignored, but on the other hand, the individual performance of India’s economic sector is so different that once Being quantified, it is always challenging.
Indeed, after the 2018 China-India summit in Wuhan, the confidence in New Delhi has increased greatly. Many analysts even believe that the Sino-US trade war has provided India with an opportunity to export to the Chinese market. However, by the end of April 2019, India’s agricultural products not only opened up new markets in China but their traditional cotton and other export positions fell.
Indian trade officials said that in 2018-19, India’s cotton exports may fall to 4.5 million bales, the lowest point in nearly 10 years, and 35% lower than the previous fiscal year. In addition, the Indian rupee price rose, India’s S-6, J-34 and other models of cotton yarn have risen to between 0.93 and 0.94 per pound (about 0.43 kg). When Bangladesh and other cotton spinning countries switched to Brazilian cotton yarns at $0.89 per pound, New Delhi’s mistakes were imaginable.
In addition, despite efforts to improve the domestic business environment in recent years, India has worked hard to attract foreign investment. The Foreign Investment Promotion Board was also abolished in May 2017, and more than 20 industries allow 100% foreign direct investment. However, the remarkable results of the partial reforms have undoubtedly exposed the serious shortage of indicators in India in the corresponding fields. Considering that since the introduction of the “Made in India” by the Modi government, foreign direct investment inflows have increased by 55% and equity inflows have increased by 63%. This undoubtedly reveals that the Indian economy still shows relatively low internationality in the 21st century.
Therefore, when media such as the Indian Press Trust (PTI) began to happily report on the laces of Modi’s meditation in the cave on the eve of the election, the Indian industry would not be happy after all: the status of pure OEM in India It cannot even promote technological progress and national development.
As India’s domestic infrastructure and network environment improve, the country’s domestic social environment (such as religious issues, education issues, crime issues, etc.) will also magnify the imbalance between regions and upgrade it to a larger level. Contradictions. And these may make Modi continue to have a headache in the next five years.
