Morgan Stanley believes that the decline in oil production in Iran and Venezuela, the ongoing military conflict in Libya, and the implementation of a reduction agreement in the core countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will strain oil supply and expect a gap in the oil market in the second quarter. For the 600,000 barrels per day, the gap in the third quarter is 1.1 million barrels per day. In the second half of the year, the price of Brent crude oil will rise to the range of 75 to 80 US dollars per barrel.
The bank said that in view of the tight market conditions, Venezuela and Iran’s production is further reduced, which means that other OPEC members may have room to increase supply, which may make oil prices unable to maintain the current level. It is expected that Brent crude oil will be re-established in 2020. Go back to around $65 a barrel.