On the 10th of Downing Street, the suspected European leader, Johnson, will finally step into the door of the Prime Minister’s Office on Thursday (July 24). However, people are concerned about whether he will become the third victim of Brexit.

The Brexit deadline on October 31 is undoubtedly the first difficulty in winning the first party of the Conservative Party’s 66% party support and the defeat of foreign minister Jorismy’s Boris Johnson.

Moreover, it is difficult to pass, and there is no chance to return – David Cameron, who triggered the 2016 referendum, and Theresa May, who lost three times in the Brexit vote, is the Prime Minister’s death. The forerunner. Johnson differs from them only at one point: he is the first British prime minister to support Brexit.

However, after the election results were announced, Johnson seemed to want to seek a more intermediate route in his speech: “Today, at this historical turning point, we have to reconcile the two groups of instinctive reactions, the two noble instinctive reactions. First, the United Kingdom. Friendship with European allies, free trade, and mutual enthusiasm for mutual assistance. At the same time, we are also deeply eager for democratic autonomy in this country.” Having said that, this contradiction is exactly the third year of Wen Cuishan’s tenure. There is no dilemma.

Conservative Party’s most precarious Congress

In theory, there should be no difficulty in Brexit: according to Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and the EU’s decision to leave the European Union, if the United Kingdom does nothing, the British will wake up on November 1 and will Automatically outside the EU. The problem is that Congress does not support the existing Brexit agreement, nor does it support the non-agreement to leave the EU. Therefore, if Johnson insists on “not to die” on October 31, he is likely to be killed before he died. It was “dead” by the congressional vote of no confidence to oust.

Alan Duncan, the former Minister of State for Foreign Affairs who just resigned on Monday (22nd), before Johnson took office, had proposed a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons immediately after he took office, challenging the Johnson Administration to obtain the majority support of the parliament. At present, the Conservative Party’s government has only a majority of the remaining two seats in the House of Commons (more likely to fall to one after August 1), and Philip Hammond, the government’s finance minister, will not hesitate to give up the cabinet’s position and return to the ordinary. Conservative MPs are also reluctant to tolerate a non-agreement of Brexit as a possible way out. Johnson, who just took office, may be forced to step down immediately. Fortunately, the House of Commons Speaker John Bercow refused his request for no confidence in voting and temporarily stabilized the British political situation.

“The Queen of England” was banned

In the face of Congress’s opposition, Johnson originally had the tactic of “Prorogation” – if he stopped the Congress for several weeks before the Brexit deadline, there would be an opportunity to turn the non-agreement of Brexit into a given fact. Although this move will lead the Queen of England to use the “royal privilege” to suppress the supremacy of the supremacy of Congress, it will cause a constitutional crisis, but this “nuclear weapon trick” can at least become a card for Johnson to negotiate.

However, under the cooperation of the aristocrats of the House of Lords and the various party members, Congress successfully passed an amendment in a vote unrelated to Brexit, forcing the government to report to the Congress every two weeks to the composition of the Northern Ireland administration. Progress and discussion in Congress – even if the time period is over, Congress will hold a special meeting to discuss it.

These singular tricks have made it possible for Congress to have a chance to meet before the Brexit deadline, and to vote again against the non-agreement of Brexit, to vote against no confidence, and even to ask the Queen to exercise its vote by Congress. The power of the head of state, in the case of the government’s unwillingness to act, took the initiative to propose to the EU to postpone the Brexit.

As the new European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and other leaders are open to the postponement of the Brexit deadline, Johnson will continue to bail out in any case, but also through a baptism in the early elections. Europe – can continue its great career in Brexit.

It’s hard to predict the gamble in advance

Early elections are a big gamble. At present, the United Kingdom has been divided into the new situation of the Conservative Party, the Labor Party, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Brexit Party. The four parties are also supporting 20% ​​of the election polls. Since the British general election adopts a single-seat simple majority system, candidates can win the most votes, and they do not have to be over halfway. If the results of the polls remain unchanged, it is unpredictable.

However, gambling is not impossible. In 2008, Johnson won the post of Mayor of London from the Labor Party and the betrayal of the Brexit referendum in 2016. It is also the result of winning the gamble. In addition, when British politics took a moment to change – in April 2017, when Wen Cuishan decided to advance the election, the Conservative Party’s support was more than 20% higher than the Labor Party. However, in less than two months after the election, the former won only 2.5. % wins the latter – Johnson, who thinks he is an election expert, is not without the possibility of being able to make a difference.

However, unless Johnson can create another miracle, the Congress after the election will only be more divided than today. The controversy will only be thereless. The Brexit is still “can’t take off and take off.”

New enquiries on the Irish issue are unsuccessful

In fact, the biggest difficulty in Brexit remains the issue of the Irish border. The difficulty is that if the UK leaves the EU single market and the customs union, the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland will inevitably establish a border checkpoint, which may damage the local peace situation; however, if the UK does not leave the single market or the customs union This kind of Brexit is no different from the one.

Johnson has now refused to accept the “backstop” that delays the issue, but he seems to have a trick that is little known.

Prosperity UK, a policy research organization chaired by a member of the European Union and a member of the suspected European Parliament, announced on June 24 an extremely detailed “alternative” for the Irish border issue, hoping to make the UK On the one hand, it can be separated from the single market and the customs union, on the other hand, it can avoid the hard border on the island of Ireland.

The spirit of the report is to split the need for a hard border into specific issues and then respond to them with different existing technologies. The claims are extremely complex, including the “Special Economic Zone”, the “Multi-layer Trustworthy Trader Scheme”, the “Sanitary and Phytosanitary System”, the “Common Travel Area”, the “Cargo Geographic Tracking” and the “WTO Frontline Traffic Exemption”. A series of technical initiatives such as the “WTO National Security Exemption” and the “Registered Exporter Platform”.

Because the report is too cumbersome, the outside world does not pay much attention to it, but it is another way for the EU to accept and replace the “bottom solution”. This program has two major advantages: First, it does not need to significantly modify the existing Brexit Agreement. It only needs to include the “requires alternative scheme to avoid the bottom scheme”. It is not necessary to completely delete the original “recovery scheme”. The article is more likely to be accepted by the EU, which has been reluctant to revise the text of the Brexit agreement. Second, the details of the plan seem to be really likely to convince the suspected European faction to accept the phrase “the agreement has a bottom-up plan, but it does not have to be implemented” to fight back. Their support.

However, this move has an Achilles heel: Big Britain and Northern Ireland, under these arrangements, still have to comply with the various regulations on commodity standards that the EU can tolerate. However, in the words that Johnson has always supported Brexit, “the EU’s requirements for the height of the truck window are too strict, making the driver unsightly to the bicycle rider on the road” and other examples are everywhere.

How to come to a gorgeous turn – don’t forget that Johnson himself has voted for the existing Brexit program – on the one hand to persuade the EU to accept this complex set of proposals, on the other hand, it will not let the Brexit people take it as a “fake off the euro” “, will be the biggest challenge in promoting this program.

The challenge of this kind of public relations is of course the root cause of Wen Cuishan’s three years of failure to promote Brexit. If Johnson succeeds, he may have a history of “the father of Brexit”, but if he fails, he will not endorse for a similar plan because he is afraid of defeat. In addition to the British Brexit, he himself It will become the third politician to die in Brexit, and will be the shortest British prime minister in history.

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