Britain’s Brexit October 31 deadline is approaching, at the time of Johnson’s hard-off European government and the majority of the pro-European pledges, the 67-year-old Queen Elizabeth II who witnessed the disintegration of the “Day of the Empire” At the age of 93, she met the biggest political test of her life.
The Sunday Times quoted a royal source on Sunday (11th), saying that the Queen of England privately expressed “disappointment” about “political class and its incompetence.”
Although Buckingham Palace did not respond to this, the Daily Telegraph quoted a person familiar with the matter on Friday (9th), referring to the cabinet secretary (the most senior civil servant in the UK), Mark Sedwill, and the British. The Queen’s private secretary, Edward Young, talked about how to let the Queen’s Majesty avoid being involved in the political storm of Brexit.
Buckingham Palace is also a slap in the face of this report, but there is news from the royal family that the royal family communicates with Downing Street officials. “There is nothing unusual.” It seems that there is a confirmation of the true meaning of the report.
Sending the Queen: From a joke to a reality?
At the beginning of 2019, the suspected European faction spoke of the dispatch of her old man and suspended the parliamentary period with royal privileges, allowing the United Kingdom to be in the original Brexit deadline (ie 2019) under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and the UK’s EU (Exit) Act. March 29) Automatically disconnected from Europe. At that time, the United Kingdom, and the world, thought it was a joke. When the Queen of England heard it, she might only shake her head and laugh, and she felt a little proud of her people’s sense of humor.
Unexpectedly, after the departure of Brexit and the release of former Prime Minister Wen Cuishan, the Conservative Party’s suspected European politician, such as the current foreign minister, Dominic Raab, began to seriously “not rule out the release of the Queen’s suspension. The possibility of Congress. Boris Johnson, the prime minister of the time, said that the proposal to dispatch the Queen said “this seems very reasonable.”
At this time, the pro-European faction of the National Assembly, in order to prevent “the suspension of the Congress leading to a non-agreement to leave the European Union”, was dismissed for the Queen. In mid-July, the House of Commons and the House of Commons worked together to deliberate on the right to discuss the administrative issues of Northern Ireland in the bill through the review of the Northern Ireland Administrative Organs Act, which was unrelated to Brexit, and stated that even if the Congress was scheduled At the end, we will resume discussion.
For a time, the crisis that Johnson sent the Queen was lifted.
Not offering the Queen has no way to stop Brexit
When Johnson pushed the unscheduled Brexit and the pro-European faction to stop the former, the British political community suddenly felt that the time for Brexit was urgent. If it was to leave the European Union on time, there must be no agreement to leave the European Union. Moreover, although Congress Most of the lawmakers have expressed their opposition to the non-agreement to leave the European Union. However, the law can not really prevent the Johnson Administration from pushing the Brexit as scheduled. As a result, the Queen of England was put on the table again, but this time the figure was a big pro-European member.
The UK think tank “Institute for Government” released a research report on the role of the British Parliament on the Brexit on Sunday, providing a detailed analysis of the current situation. There are six major conclusions:
1. Even if the EU gives in to Johnson and negotiates a new Brexit agreement, the British Parliament does not have enough time to pass relevant domestic legislation. Therefore, the UK can leave the European Union on schedule with an agreement, and the possibility is extremely low.
2. Congress can move to vote against a non-agreement to leave the European Union, but the motion does not change the law, the Johnson Administration can ignore it.
3. Because the Johnson Administration controls the agenda, even if Congress members want formal legislation to prevent non-agreement of Brexit (for example, directly withdrawing the Brexit decision from the EU), the former can also block the attempt before the Brexit deadline.
4. Even if Congress voted for no confidence in the Johnson administration, if the parties could not form a major coalition government, there is no law in the UK to prevent Johnson from refusing to resign.
5. Even if the Johnson Administration is willing to resign, there will be a five-week campaign period in the general election, and the possibility of rushing to the election before October 31 is very low.
6. Without the support of the current government, the second referendum will never be possible.
Under such circumstances, it seems that there is only one trick for the pro-European faction to block the EU without a vote: to oust Johnson through the vote of no confidence, and then ask others to invite the Queen to invite him to form a transitional government, in order to apply for a postponement to the EU. Brexit, on the other hand, dominates the agenda for early elections.
Take the monarchy to kick the prime minister?
John McDonnell, the shadow of the Labour Party, said earlier that if Johnson refused to resign after failing to vote, he would immediately call the taxi to send Jeremy Corbyn, the party leader, to Buckingham Palace. The Queen of England announced that the Labor Party would “take over” the United Kingdom, demanding that the Queen exercise her power as a British monarch, dismiss Johnson’s phase, and invite Hao Erbin to form a government.
However, the power of the British monarch to dismiss the incumbent prime minister has not been used for 185 years. The last case dates back to 1834 when William IV disregarded Congress’s opposition to the resignation of Prime Minister William Lamb. It can be seen that this is a serious problem.
Constitutional Crisis 1: Who leads the government after the vote is not trusted?
In addition, even if the Queen of England decides to exercise this right, it is unknown whether this decision will be made. Before the passage of the 2011 Regular Congress Act, the Prime Minister who lost the vote of no confidence voted to dismiss the Congress. The last prime minister who stepped down because of no confidence voted back to James Callaghan in 1979. At that time, he decided to dissolve the parliament, but he remained in office for more than a month until the election.
After the passage of the Regular Congress Act, members of Congress have the right to regain the majority of the trust of the Congress within 14 days of the adoption of the no-confidence motion. The question is: Who is leading the British government in the 14 days? Is the current government? Or is it the “most loyal opposition party” of the Queen? Can the Queen of England resign from the current prime minister within 14 days and find another to form a transitional government? Who should this “other” be?
Since there is no explicit provision in the Periodical Congress Act and there are no cases of distrust motions passed after 2011, there is no precedent for the Queen of England to follow.
If the Queen of England does not act in these 14 days, and Johnson or others can no longer regain the trust of Congress, another question arises: Who should be the British government in the period before the election? The above-mentioned problem of no solution can also be re-examined here.
Constitutional Crisis 2: Who is the Queen of England in the election?
More importantly, the date of the election will be decided by the Queen’s advice from the Prime Minister. Due to the close of the Brexit deadline on October 31, the Brexit party certainly wants to push the election date to a deadline, which has caused the rice to become a bureaucracy, while the Europeans want to hold a general election before the deadline, hoping to form a European Union. The new government was sent to the EU to apply for a postponement of the Brexit to break the EU without agreement.
How does the Queen of England decide on the date of the next election? Johnson certainly believes that since he is still the master of the Prime Minister’s Office at 10 Downing Street, the Queen certainly has to act according to his opinions. However, the opponents believe that even though Johnson is still the prime minister in name, he is no longer qualified to ask the Queen to heed his opinion because he has lost the trust of the Congress.
In these disputes, the Queen of England seems to be only able to take the initiative to make her own political decisions, and any decision of her will also be chosen between the suspected European and pro-European parties. This is the queen’s dilemma.
Cabinet Secretary Sedwell and Queen’s private secretary, Jane, seem to have nothing to do with Her Majesty’s or being involved in a political storm. According to the Daily Telegraph, Sedwell only plans to trust the leaders of political parties when they see the crisis, warning them not to pull the Queen into their political confrontation.
Just a few months ago, it is hard to imagine that the political crisis in Hong Kong will develop into today’s situation. The Brexit limit is less than three months away. The two sides of Brexit and Europe, Europe and Europe will be opposed. Intensified, and finally forced the Queen of England to make an exception to preside over the situation, which is still unknown.
However, no matter how the event develops, in addition to the Queen’s constitutional crisis, the British “political class” will have no prestige. Anyone standing in the position of the Queen of England and saying “disappointed” to these people is just a very British “Understatement” rhetoric.