From October 31, the Brexit limit was only over two months. The pound that has been losing since the summer has suddenly rebounded on Thursday (15th) and rose above the 1 pound to the $1.21 mark. The main reason is that the Labor Party leader Hao Erbin sent a letter to the parties on the previous day, proposing his plan to “block Europe and save the United Kingdom” and let the market see a ray of light in the dark Brexit tunnel.
The plan of Jeremy Corbyn is very simple. When the British House of Commons resumes on September 3, he will raise a motion of no confidence as soon as possible. Since the Conservative Party government has only one majority, and the Conservative Party has at least 20 members who are willing to “stay out of justice” to prevent “no agreement,” the defeat of the Johnson Administration’s no-confidence motion is not hopeless.
However, this is only the first step. After the no-confidence motion was passed, it was only a matter of legally kicking away the Johnson Administration: there was another member who could vote through the congressional trust within 14 days and set up another government.
As the leader of “The Most Loyal Opposition Party of Her Majesty the Queen,” Hao Erbin, of course, thought that “who is who I am,” and suggested that the parties support him to form the “Interim Government of the Labor Party”, first apply to the EU to postpone the Brexit and then hold the general election in advance.
Compared with the various operations of “inviting the Queen to go out of the mountain” or “grabbing the Congress agenda,” Hao Erbin’s proposal seems to be the only way that obviously does not cause constitutional disputes and can prevent “no agreement to leave the EU”. Therefore, the market’s immediate response is extremely positive.
Labor Party’s selfishness: the big league government became a virtual idea
It is a pity that the discerning person knows that Hao Erbin’s move is a political trick of “selfishness”. Therefore, the response from all walks of life in the British political arena is very negative.
First of all, it is much more secure to have a temporary “big league government” composed of a “no leader’s ambition” congressman than to let Hao Erbin enter the Prime Minister’s Office at 10 Downing Street. Because of his excessive tendency to the left-wing policy, Hao Erbin also has oppositions such as Tom Watson, who is represented by the deputy party leader, and the former has been suspected of European faction since the 1970s. It is even harder to win the conviction of a member of the European Union. .
Although the last time the British could form a “great coalition government” had to be traced back to the Second World War, Brexit was the biggest crisis facing Britain since World War II. As long as the Labor Party is willing to do so, it is recommended to “below the Conservative Party.” The Father of the House (the longest serving member of the House of Commons), such as Ken Clarke, formed a “big league government” and would be able to convince the public.
However, Hao Erbin himself is not only starting from the overall situation of the country. First, even if his attempt to prevent “no agreement to leave the EU” fails, if the British are caught in the government’s internal documents, “fuel, food, and drug shortages” after the Brexit, it is only the fault of the Conservative government, and the Labour Party. The “failure to try” is more politically rewarding.
Second, if he can really win the support of the party members, form a major coalition government, and pull the British to the edge of the cliff, in the people’s perception, the merits of returning to Hao Erbin, in addition to greatly helping the Labour Party in the early elections, In one fell swoop, the only representative image of the British Residency Party in the United States since the Liberal Democratic Party has been defeated this year, and many of the votes in the European Union will be retaken from the latter.
Under such calculations, Hao Erbin’s proposal can be regarded as an invincible plan. Of course, there is no need to support the “big league government”.
Other British parties understand in their hearts that Hao Erbin’s plan, if he only wants to stop “no agreement to leave the EU”, should also put down the consideration of political gains and losses and personal grievances to support his Labor Party interim government.
Some political parties that have no ruling dictation at all, such as the Scottish National Party (SNP), the Plaid Cymru and the Green Party, support the proposal of Hao Erbin. However, what is most opposed is not surprisingly the Liberal Democrats who have recently revived. The latter’s new party, Jo Swinson, said that Hao Erbin’s will to stop Brexit was not credible and that his suggestion was “nonsense.”
Although Swinson and his post-softening stance expressed their willingness to discuss cooperation with Hao Erbin, they are in the same position as many Conservative Party members who are expected to be rebel. However, such an “open attitude” is actually a desire to exchange some politics with Hao Erbin. The attempt to compromise will ultimately be unsuccessful.
The uncertainty of taking off and not taking off is the biggest pressure on the British economy.
The word “unwanted” is the biggest blow to Brexit’s economy.
The UK economy contracted 0.2% in the second quarter of this year, the first time in seven years. Some commentators believe that this actually reflects the fact that British manufacturers have increased their inventories before the original Brexit Day (March 29) in the first quarter of this year, and are ready to reduce production in the second quarter, so the British economy contracted in the second quarter. It is only the aftermath of excessive growth in the first quarter. From this perspective, the UK economy seems to be returning to growth in the third quarter, as manufacturers have to increase their inventories before the Brexit deadline on October 31.
According to a report from the British Government obtained by The Times, 85% of the UK-based land freight trucks that are critical to the just-in-time supply chain are not ready to deal with the Brexit. Customs inspection. It can be seen that it is necessary for these manufacturers to increase the operation of inventory.
However, increasing the cost of inventory is entirely a negligible loss to the “unpredictable prospects” of Brexit. This unnecessary donation, coupled with uncertainties in the future, has led to a gradual decline in further investment: corporate investment in the second quarter of the UK fell by 0.5% quarter-to-quarter, while investment in the construction industry fell by 1.3%.
In fact, the fundamentals of the British economy are still positive. For example, the weekly salary in the second quarter increased by 3.9% compared with the same period of last year. The number of new jobs reached 115,000, and the unemployment rate remained at a very low level of 3.9%. However, due to the uncertainty of Brexit, the economic outlook is hard to be optimistic.
Political economy is difficult
Britain in the countdown to Brexit can be regarded as the epitome of global politics to suppress the economy. In the United States, there are Sino-US trade wars that have swayed the global economy and immigration policies that have changed in the future; in Italy, there are internal disputes over the populist coalition government; in Japan, there are restrictions on key raw materials export policies for historical reasons in Korea; in Argentina There are threats to the re-launch of Peronism politicians with unclear economic policies.
In this way, in the context of global monetary easing, investors are afraid to invest and invest in extremely safe assets, resulting in German government bonds at a negative interest rate; the exchange rate of safe-haven currencies such as gold, yen, and Swiss francs rises; U.S. Treasury bonds have an interest rate upside down and so on.
According to the “Economic Policy Uncertainty Index” founded by Stanford University, the University of Chicago and other economists, since the index began to conduct statistics in 1997, global uncertainty has hit a record high since the end of last year. It can be seen how political instability today suppresses the economy.
If the politicians of all countries only refuse to take a more pragmatic path for ideological disputes, big power hegemony, political competition, face problems, and even personal grievances, and they refuse to take a more pragmatic path, this “forecast is unpredictable” and uncertain Sexuality will only increase the pressure on the economies of the world. If it eventually leads to a global recession, its impact on the political class may be even worse than after the 2008 financial tsunami.