British Prime Minister Boris Johnson reached a new Brexit agreement with the European Union on October 17, but the agreement was blocked in the House of Commons and failed to pass before the 31st Brex deadline. Johnson went to the EU to apply for a postponement deadline and decided to suspend the legislation and demand an early election on December 12. Now that the EU plans to extend the Brexit deadline until January 31, 2020, will the UK’s early elections really happen?
The decision is in the hands of the Labour Party
Johnson will move to the House of Commons in advance on October 28, and members of Congress will debate and vote on this.. According to the UK’s Regular Congress Act (FTPA) passed in 2011, the British Prime Minister cannot disband the Congress casually and want to hold general elections for general elections.
The Regular Congress Act stipulates that the dissolution of Congress requires two-thirds of the members to vote in favor. Among the 650 seats in the British House of Commons, the Conservative Party has 288 seats, and the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party have 54 seats. In the case that the Labor Party is still resisting, it means that Johnson is unlikely to win two-thirds of support.
Other ways to trigger elections?
Johnson can propose a single early election bill, and the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party (SNP) temporarily stand on the same line with Johnson in this matter, but the two parties demanded that the general election be held on December 9.
The advantage of this method is that only half of the House of Commons agrees, but there are still potential uncertainties. Johnson will confirm that there will be no amendments before agreeing.
Johnson can also initiate a no-confidence motion on his own, and then rely on the Scottish National Party and other small parties to support the vote, to overthrow the government and start the general election. However, this also has certain political and legal risks.
The calculation of the various parties?
Johnson’s most hope is of course that the Congress can pass the agreement before the deadline. If the agreement fails, Johnson hopes that the support of the Conservative Party will lead the election as soon as possible to obtain greater authority to promote Brexit.
The Scottish National Party and the Liberal Democrats hope that the general election will be held before the issue of Brexit is resolved, in order to absorb more votes and seats.
On the Labour Party side, on October 28, when the EU agreed to postpone the Brexit, the option of “no agreement to leave the EU” no longer exists. In theory, it is in line with the conditions for the Labour Party to support early elections. However, the reporter of the British Independent Television (ITV). Written on Twitter, the Labor Party will abstain from voting on Johnson’s motion. British Opinium Consulting (Opinium) poll results show that the Conservative Party’s support is 16% higher than the manual party. The Labour Party believes that the timing of the election is not right, or why the party does not support the early general election.