After the US Democrats voted through the impeachment procedure, the investigation of US President Donald Trump entered a high-speed stage.

On November 13th, the US television station broadcasted the first hearing of the House Intelligence Committee to Trump’s impeachment investigation hearing. US Ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor and US State Department official George Kent attended the hearing and gave evidence. The former US ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch, will also testify on November 15. The hearing centered on Trump’s “in exchange for military aid in Uzbekistan, pressured the Ukrainian government to investigate political opponents, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.” Most Republicans chose not to watch the live broadcast, and US President Donald Trump once again criticized the hearing as a scam.

The day before the hearing, the Senate Intelligence Committee announced that the committee will hold five public impeachment hearings next week. The number of witnesses is eight, some have participated in closed-door hearings, and some are also required by the Republican Party to attend the testimony. But it does not include the Democratic presidential candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden. The Democratic Party has rejected the demands of the Republican Party because Biden is not part of the impeachment investigation.

Democratic Party’s political bet

Nearly 15 people were summoned to testify in a month, and the number of hearings is expected to increase. The Democratic Party publicly exposed the internal and administrative shortcomings of the Trump administration by impeachment hearings and further tore apart the party struggle.

Since the beginning of the closed-door hearing, there have been many exposures that are not conducive to Trump’s testimony. They all point to Trump’s quest to reach a “transaction” with the Ukrainian government, allowing the latter to investigate Biden’s father and son. Trump and his allies denied the case and even publicly criticized and boycotted the impeachment procedures and hearing arrangements pushed by the Democratic Party. Some were summoned to Trump consultants and refused to attend the hearing. At the same time, Trump continues to call on the Republican Party to stand on its side and unite against the Democrat-led impeachment investigation.

This process of impeachment investigation will inevitably put Trump under great pressure. This pressure is not necessarily a threat from being successfully impeached, because Trump knows that Republicans in the Senate will not easily abandon him. Even if the impeachment clause is passed in the future, it will be impeached by the House of Representatives, and the Senate can ensure that it passes this level.

From the perspective of political struggle or party grievances, the primary goal of the Democrats should be that Trump was successfully impeached and nailed to the historical shame of the “imposed president.” This is not difficult, the House Democrats will inevitably pass the impeachment clause by virtue of their majority party advantage.

As for whether the impeachment case can finally be successful in the Senate, or whether the Senate will ruin “decision” Trump is guilty and dismiss the presidency according to the law, this should be secondary. After all, the Democratic Party knows that the Republican senator is guilty. The possibility is small. The Democrats will not expect the Senate to “judgment” Trump “guilty”, but will look at the whole process of impeaching, showing Trump’s “crime” to American voters and allowing voters to make votes in the 2020 election. The final “judgment.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was able to refuse the impeachment attitude after Trang’s ordinary Umen exposure, risking tearing up the Washington party’s struggle, and even betting on the 2020 Democratic election’s bet, Trump launched an impeachment investigation, indicating that the Democratic Party did seize the handle of Trump’s unconstitutional violations.

Although the Republican Party has always defended Trump, it even denied the legality of impeachment from the public relations level. Before the exposure of Tongwumen, or during the investigation of the Tongmenmen, the public’s recognition of the impeachment was not high, but as time passed, the witnesses of the hearing witnessed the public opinion and public opinion of the entire American society, and began to accept The legality of impeachment.

The impeachment case is also a continuation of the partisan struggle, embodying the mechanism of the three power checks and balances. American voters have become bored with this struggle. The Democratic Party cannot overestimate the positive effect of the impeachment case on the Democratic election in the general election. The Republican Party cannot underestimate its negative effect on the election within its party. Even if the Republican Party can maintain control of the White House in 2020, the Democratic Party’s big goal is to retreat to the next level, to fight for control of both houses of Congress, and to turn Trump into a “lame duck.” In this way, Democrats will control the power of Congress and will continue to confront or balance the Trump administration.

Can the impeachment shake the Trump voters’ basics?

The Democratic Party is likely to use the impeachment case as a further “negation” of Trump’s electoral weapon, allowing voters in key states, especially those who have fantasized about Trump three years ago, to switch to democracy in the 2020 election. Party presidential candidate.

However, the impact of the impeachment investigation is large, but it may not be able to break through or disintegrate the Trump voters. This depends on the impact of the subsequent impeachment process on “public opinion.” According to the latest poll released by the Washington Post and the American Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), support and opposition to the number of support for Trump’s impeachment is half. American public opinion is still a serious cracking state since the 2016 election.

In addition, the entire impeachment case, from the House of Representatives vote to the Senate review, will take at least three months. The impact of premature ending on the election of next year’s election will be reduced. Therefore, the Republicans will not blindly hinder the advancement of the impeachment case. If the House of Representatives passes the impeachment clause in the future, the Republicans in the Senate will take over as early as the late takeover. This will minimize the negative impact on the election of the Republican election.

However, the key factor affecting the outcome of the 2020 election is still the economy. If Trump can’t end the tariff trade war as soon as possible, the downward pressure on the US economy in the election year will increase. With the impact of the impeachment case, the prospect of Trump’s re-election will inevitably be affected. Therefore, Trump is now facing multiple pressures, but the election is the first. In order to alleviate this pressure, in addition to denying all impeachment allegations, he will inevitably regard the impeachment investigation as a threat to himself and to the United States. In order to deal with this threat, it is not ruled out that Trump will create new troubles, or generate new problems, and the Democrats will seize the handle.

 

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