The British general election is about to take place on December 12. According to the latest polls, although the Conservative Party is still in control of the election, the distance from the Labor Party ’s support rate has narrowed again, and the Conservative Party ’s advantage has become less and less obvious.
According to the latest YouGov polls, the Conservative Party currently has a 43% support rate, Labour’s 34% and Liberal Democrats’ 12%. The estimated number of seats obtained is 339, 231 and 15 respectively.
The British House of Commons has a total of 650 seats, minus the Speaker and the non-voting Sinn Fein Party, which requires 320 votes to pass the Brexit agreement. But since not all Conservative MPs support Brexit, the Conservatives need to get more seats to successfully pass the Brexit agreement.
However, the current 339 seats are much lower than the 359 seats two weeks ago. Although it is believed that the situation will be improved compared to the current 317 seats, there is still a chance that the status of the current House of Commons cannot be changed. The Brexit agreement is difficult to pass under opposition.
YouGov successfully predicted in 2017 that the Conservative Party led by former Prime Minister Wen Cuishan could not achieve more than half of the results. In the general election that year, the Conservative Party won only 317 seats, and together with the Northern Ireland Democratic Unity Party, it also had only 327 seats. With the defeat of the conservatives and hard Brexit within the Conservative Party, the Brexit agreement has been unable to pass.