5 years ago

Johnson is expected to win the greatest victory since the Dzoar era

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I still remember that when Johnson was running for the Conservative Party leader in early June this year, he once said that only he could “defeat Hao Binbin”, “send Fallac to his hometown” and “reinvigorate the Conservative Party”, pointing out that if the Brexit fails, the Conservative Party Is about to perish. After the election campaign on December 12, these promises of half a year ago were finally fulfilled. The Conservative Party not only perished but also won the biggest victory in 42 years.

According to the poll results, the Conservatives will gain 368 seats in the lower house, gaining a majority of 86 seats, welcoming the biggest victory since Margaret Thatcher’s 1987 election; and the Labor Party is expected to have only 191 seats, a drop of 71 from the previous term The performance was the worst since 1935.

The Liberal Democratic Party (Lib Dem), which had originally advocated a “hard stay in Europe” attempt to win hundreds of seats, was expected to have only 13 seats, less than the existing 20 seats. Its party leader, Jo Swinson, even lost its original seat. . Among the 59 seats in Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) is expected to win 55 seats, which will accelerate Scotland’s growing separation from the British central government’s political structure.

Since the constituencies that announced the results earlier are consistent with the poll results, the election results are almost settled.

The Labor Party, which was defeated because of the platform of the “Left-wing Revolution”, is now in crisis of party cracking: Someone pointed at 70-year-old left-wing veteran party leader Jeremy Corbyn; some people criticized the party, led by shadow Brexit minister Keir Starmer “Hard stay in Europe” refers to the Brexit support that led to the Labour Party’s loss of the working class; some people say that Hao Erbin will stay pending, but his loyal grassroots group “Momentum” must be disbanded.

Hao Erbin himself has stated that he will not lead the Labor Party to participate in the next general election, but has not immediately resigned to “plead guilty,” saying only that it takes time for reflection.

In contrast, the Conservative response was relatively calm, with a spokesperson saying: “Forecasts are currently being made, but informal results. What we do know is that voters are refusing to accept Haulbin ’s tricks on Brexit.” And Johnson himself It only said that the Conservative Party won public support to resolve the Brexit issue.

Johnson factor: Destiny or strength?

The Tories won this time, and the “Johnson factor” is undoubtedly the main reason. Before Johnson’s election, he almost cleaned the party’s moderate veterans. Even the former Conservative Prime Minister John Major also publicly called for an end to the Johnson faction. This victory can be regarded as a clear proof of the Conservative’s overall “Johnsonization.”

However, does this “Johnson factor” come from its luck or its strength? If we want to give a numerical answer to this question, we can probably say that it is “half equal.”

Johnson is indeed in an excellent political situation. Although the British people are still divided in half on the stance of staying in the EU and Brexit, the Liberal Democrats’ “strong cancellation of Brexit without a referendum” is difficult for even the Europeans to accept, while the largest opposition party, the Labour Party, is leaving Neutralization between the EU and the EU-In the case where the two parties refused to cooperate in the allocation of votes, the Europeans did not know where to cast their votes, resulting in a severe division of votes.

In contrast, Johnson’s slogan “Get Brexit Done” shows that he can grasp the political situation that has been in his favor. In the early part of his election campaign, he abandoned his earlier domestic policy slogan of “building 40 hospitals”, focused on the issue of Brexit, and used his own strength to attack his opponent’s weakness.

At the same time, the Labor Party ’s exhaustive left-wing revolutionary policy proposition has also caused public anxiety. Comparatively speaking, Johnson’s campaign platform was empty and used a trick of “nothing to have”, so that when it is difficult to compare actual policies, the people had to focus on the public performance of the leaders of the parties, with a sense of intimacy Johnson, who is famous for his sense of humor, is certainly far better than Harbin, an angry old man.

Born politician

In fact, the most important thing for Johnson’s luck lies in his inherent politician character: He is “a man who is easy to get his understanding of regardless of any improper decision”.

From being convicted by the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom for “violating the law” and using the power of the Queen to prevent Parliament from meeting. In his decades of journalist and politician’s life, he has routinely smeared the EU with false news. However, he has been treated kindly by French and German leaders. The scandal of a female friend’s private morals (now a single Johnson who doesn’t even want to reveal how many children he has) also has no effect on his political career.

These traits can be seen from his previous journalist career: after graduating from Oxford, he interned in The Times and was fired for “creating fake news”; however, he did not lose his reputation in the media because of this. Later, he became a Brussels-based reporter for the Daily Telegraph, and finally took the throne of the editor-in-chief of the Spectator.

However, it is undeniable that Johnson himself has always made good use of the “advantages” of his personality. Regarding the criticism of “deceiving the Queen”, he successfully attributed the blame to the Parliament ’s resistance to Brexit and the “weak chicken” performance of the opposition party ’s reluctance to agree to the election. In the end, the Labor Party had to accept that the election was held ahead of the obvious disadvantages. The original pattern of the Conservative Party was not changed.

Regarding the “impossible task” of re-examining the Brexit agreement with the European Union, he also used his personal qualities to do what the former Prime Minister Theresa May would not have done in Britain: to actually leave Northern Ireland Within the EU Single Market and Customs Union to resolve border issues on the island of Ireland.

He did so, and won the new Brexit agreement. In addition to the criticism of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of the Northern Irish Governing Party, which he betrayed, there was no political storm in the country. If Wen Cuishan is the one who makes these decisions, she will definitely face up to attack her inside and outside the party to split the motherland with “one country, two systems.” Here you can see why Johnson is a born and outstanding politician.

This victory for the Conservative Party was the result of Johnson’s luck, and the result of his ability to grasp his destiny and give him various opportunities.

However, after the UK ’s formal Brexit at the end of January of the following year, there are still long-term difficulties in how to rebuild the future relationship between Britain and Europe. After this election, whether Johnson, who can almost “do whatever he wants” in the country, can continue to “win”, remains to be seen. If he can survive this difficult time, he can be regarded as the “Churchill dream” of saving Britain from crisis.


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