China, the United States to sign agreement, Beijing needs three major preparations in advance

On December 30, 2019, the South China Morning Post also quoted sources as saying that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He has accepted the invitation and will lead the Chinese delegation to visit Washington on January 4. Phase trade agreement.

On December 13, 2019, when China and the United States announced an agreement, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told reporters that the two sides plan to sign the trade agreement in the United States in the first week of January 2020. Signed by ministerial officials. Officially announced by the United States that “signed in the first week of January 2020” is the most widely circulated version in more than a month. If signed on January 15th according to Trump’s latest statement, the signing date is obviously delayed.

The United States has always announced various advances and details in advance. The details disclosed by US dignitaries to various media are contradictory, and official statements have been repeatedly changed. It is not surprising that even the details of the signed agreement by Trump are not true.

All parties concerned about when China and the United States signed the agreement because they were curious about what kind of agreement the United States and China had reached, and wanted to see for themselves. In addition, China and the United States announced that there was a large degree of suddenness in reaching an agreement. Whether China and the United States will finally sign the agreement and what new negotiation transactions have been carried out around the signing of the agreement has also attracted much attention. For the US, signing the agreement as soon as possible is the political correctness of Trump’s election year.

But for China, signing an agreement is not a simple signing ceremony after reaching an agreement.

First, before signing the agreement, be prepared for the content of the agreement that may cause controversy. Sometimes how to express and launch a consensus between China and the United States is more important than what the United States and China have reached.

Negotiation consensus is the result of compromise. The China-US trade agreement will not be an agreement that is entirely in China’s favor. This can only be a relatively good agreement. The subtext of China’s willingness to profit is that some Chinese people’s interests will be lost and some industries will be impacted, especially under the downward pressure of the economy. It is necessary to do a good job of emotional guidance for some domestic interest groups in China. Follow-up policy support will try to influence drop to lowest.

Not only are all sectors of China’s domestic community concerned about the China-US trade agreement, the world is also very concerned. Earlier, in May 2018, when China and the United States reached a consensus for the first time, Bruno Le Maire, the French economic minister, warned at the time that “if Europe fails to show a strong stance, France may be the victim of a China-US agreement.”

Therefore, the signing of an agreement between China and the United States is definitely not only a matter for both China and the United States. It is very important for Europe to see how other countries are having trade disputes with the United States. The agreements reached between China and the United States in financial liberalization and intellectual property rights will form the basis for negotiations between China and other parties.

The China-U.S. Agreement may attract some countries to adopt a tough trade policy with China, or it may virtually eliminate some of the differences between China and other countries. How to carry out the global lobbying and publicity of the China-US agreement so as not to depart from China’s overall framework of opening up to the outside world also needs to be planned in advance.

Second, it is very difficult to embody equality and mutual respect. The China-U.S. Trade war was originally a war against China initiated by the United States. Trump will not give up the gimmick “Lessons learned from China” for the sake of elections. China needs to actively plan how to resolve the “China loses to the United States and wins.” Public opinion offensive.

The agreement is the result of mutual compromise and concession between China and the United States. Signing the agreement will not humiliate or humiliate. This meaning needs to be more intensive. The ceremony and schedule for signing the agreement need to be carefully prepared. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He has already visited the United States in October 2019. If Liu He went to the White House again on January 15 to sign an agreement without a US official’s visit to China, it would not be appropriate in terms of arrangements. Some of the contents of the China-US agreement are similar to certain arrangements for China’s reform and opening up. In the financial and intellectual property fields, it may be more beneficial to China to implement some new regulations before signing the agreement. How to make China and the United States have face after gaining substantial ties, more pavement is needed.

Third, China needs to avoid falling into the trap.

Lighthizer told reporters on the agreement on December 13, 2019 that China as a whole is committed to important structural changes and promised to purchase more than $ 200 billion in U.S. goods and Services are concentrated in the four main areas of manufacturing, energy, agriculture and services. He also said that as part of the first phase of the trade agreement, China agreed to purchase an additional US $ 16 billion in US agricultural products each year on the basis of a US $ 24 billion purchase quota in 2017. In addition, Beijing has agreed to work hard to purchase US $ 5 billion in additional US agricultural products each year. This will increase China’s purchase of US agricultural products to US $ 40 billion to US $ 50 billion.

Eliminating the trade deficit and increasing the scale of procurement have always been the requirements of the United States, while China’s position is that procurement must be in line with reality. China believes that it is a market behavior for companies to increase their purchases of American products. China is a market economy country and the Chinese government has limited scope for intervention.

After the agreement is signed, it is unknown how China will meet the demanding procurement requirements of the American dialect. Against the background of the US attacking China’s interference in normal economic competition and denying China’s market economy status, is China suspected of intervening in market economic activities when it meets the US purchase requirements? If the requirements are not met, is there any suspicion that the agreement cannot be fulfilled?

Whether the signed agreement shows the amount of purchase and whether the signed agreement contradicts some of the established positions of the Chinese side, these all need to be cautious.