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The “Iranian Nuclear Agreement” signed by the “European Three” (E3), the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, officially launched on Tuesday (January 14) a dispute mediation process that could lead to the full restoration of United Nations sanctions on Iran. Since Iran began violating the nuclear agreement in early May last year in response to the United States ’formal implementation of its unilateral oil sanctions, Britain, France and Germany have been hesitating whether to initiate such procedures; to Iran ’s holy city general Sulaimani ) Assassinated on January 3, Iran decided not to comply with the nuclear provisions of any agreement before the three countries had to respond.

On the issue of nuclear agreement, the three European countries have always stood on the Iranian side, from risking US sanctions to help Iran bypass the US dollar system in foreign trade with the “Instrument for Trade Exchange Tool” (INSTEX), to Macron borrowing France at the end of August last year The opportunity for the G7 summit slammed Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s visit, and it was clearly visible that Trump was trying to have a dramatic scene with him.

After all, the hegemony of the US dollar can hardly be defeated, and the three European countries cannot help it. In the final analysis, Iran’s current economic difficulties still have to be solved by the United States and Iran. It is difficult for other countries to intervene in the short term to achieve visible results. Recognize responsibility.

It’s because the firing is dark

However, after Iran’s total non-compliance with the nuclear agreement, if the parties to the agreement do not respond in any way, this international agreement called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will exist in name only and may be optional. no.

In order to ensure that in fact, any country (such as the United States and Israel, which has always wanted to take the opportunity to eliminate Iran ’s military threat) can take any fierce action under the pretext that the nuclear agreement has expired. The three countries, Britain, France, and Germany, have no choice but to make this seem dissatisfied. Iran’s behavior. Therefore, this procedure to restore comprehensive sanctions against Iran is actually just a few fires that Iran’s “friends” had to do.

Worried that this move will be used by hardliners in the Iranian governing class. The three countries, Britain, France and Germany, also specifically stated that they still hope that the nuclear agreement can be successful, and this action is not a move to join the US “extreme pressure” policy.

If we look at this dispute mediation process, we can see that it is almost impossible to progress to the stage of re-imposing UN sanctions on Iran.

The sanctions of the three countries will never be implemented

First of all, after the procedure begins, the Joint Committee on Nuclear Agreements consisting of China, Russia, Britain, France, Germany and the European Union will have 15 days to resolve the dispute, and the period may be extended if all parties agree. Then, if either party is dissatisfied, the foreign ministers of the above parties will have another 15 days to resolve the dispute, and this period may be extended. In addition, both parties to the dispute can also submit the dispute to an independent consulting group for 15 days to resolve. Subsequently, the dispute will have a 30-35 day resolution period.

Due to the possibility of the above procedures being postponed, as long as the “Euro III” is not implemented, the procedures for sanctioning Iran will be dead.

Thereafter, if the dispute remains unresolved, the complainant may suspend the implementation of the agreement. As the British, French and German countries are unable to help Iran to bypass the US sanctions, whether they continue to implement the agreement has little practical impact. The procedure is now complete.

However, if the “Three European Countries” really want to restore sanctions, they can now ask the UN Security Council, and before the Security Council can accept them, they must prove that other methods under the framework of the Joint Committee on Nuclear Agreements have been exhausted. Can solve the problem. Subsequently, the Security Council must pass a resolution to lift sanctions within 30 days, otherwise sanctions will be restored.

It can be seen that if Britain, France, and Germany continue to use their long-term strategy of “speak hard and soft,” this process can be “mediated” until the old days are gone and Iran sanctions are not restored.

However, for Britain, France, and Germany to maintain their original friendly stance on Iran, the Iranian side must continue to maintain a diplomatic moral heights that has been greatly enhanced by the assassination of Suleimani, and not really develop nuclear weapons.

Iran cannot be hardened anymore

At present, Iran ’s mistaken shooting down of Ukraine ’s airliner “first denied, suspected to destroy evidence, and admitted responsibility three days later” has triggered anti-government demonstrations at various universities in Tehran. Iranian hardliners have once cut off the Internet and threatened to use it. The use of force has the shadow of anti-government demonstrations ranging from about 200 to 1,500 in the number of deaths. If the hardliners continue this policy, in addition to the impact of the patriotism of most Iranians united by the death of Suleimani, they will also lose their hard-won international positive perception.

What’s more, Iran had arrested British ambassador Rob Macaire at a rally in a plane for the dead after the crash. Although he was released unconditionally afterwards, the Iranian Ministry of Justice on Tuesday listed Markel as an “unloved welcome figure” and asked him to leave Iran in accordance with international practice. It seems that he wants to speculate that there are “British mafia” behind the demonstrations. Anti-government sentiment was suppressed again for some people and students due to the air crash.

If the British public sentiment is greatly reversed, the British government will have to do something. As long as one of the signatories of the nuclear agreement “has a hard word and a hard hand” and cooperates with the United States’ veto power in the UN Security Council, Iran is likely to fall back into UN sanctions within six months. In view of this, Iran’s hardliners should not act lightly here.

In the current international power distribution system that is unfavorable to Iran, what Iran should do is to slow the rate of violations of nuclear agreements and avoid forcing the three European countries to take further action. After all, “non-compliance with the agreement” and “active refining of enriched uranium to There is much room for maneuvering between nuclear weapons levels.

What’s more, the incident of wrongly shooting down a Ukraina passenger plane is a danger and an opportunity for Iran. Although Iran has confessed its responsibilities, there is international opinion that this is because most of the victims on the plane were actually Iranian, and there are a lot of relatives and friends in Iran, and many evidences are in the hands of other countries before they ca n’t but acknowledge it responsibility.

Iran ’s best strategy today is based on what President Hassan Rouhani has declared, and a special court has been set up to investigate the incident carefully to find out what happened. Do n’t just punish members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard who made a mistake and shot down the airliner. .

If Iran can handle the matter properly and make the facts and guilt fair and clear, it can prove that the external negative comments are wrong. It can also be compared with the 290 deaths of the Iranian airliner that was shot down by the U.S. military in 1988. An apology, no compensation, and no accountability-on the other hand, it can also convince nationals who are dissatisfied with the government. Iran’s economic difficulties today are not caused by the government’s incompetence or poor governance, but by the United States’ unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear agreement 2. Consequences of increasing sanctions.

Although winning the support of European countries in this way seems to be a spiritual victory that “far water cannot save near fire”, but under the United States’ unilateralist policy of deterrence, “allies in the world” are better than relying on The hard power in the Persian Gulf region “goes alone.”

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