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Following the release of the “ Century Agreement ” in 2019 as an Israeli-Palestinian economic reconciliation plan, Trump announced the controversial “New Middle East Peace Plan” on January 28, saying he would use this as a political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. . Trump not only recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s “indivisible capital” in the agreement, but also recognizes Israel’s sovereignty over settlements in the West Bank and allows Israel to fully control settlements.

It is conceivable that this move will cause a stir in the Middle East politics. For example, Palestinian President Abbas claimed to cut off security relations with the United States and Israel. However, according to a Middle East Eye report on February 4, Abbas After shouting, the three parties still exchanged, as if yesterday’s blood shouted but Nanke had a dream.

Although the other parties have responded, they are also the majority of the actors. Responses from Palestine, Turkey, Jordan, and Iran were expected, and they accused Trump of acting too unilaterally and favoring Israel; Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates also performed in accordance with the script, expressed their approval, and called on Palestine to consider the US proposal carefully. For the Palestinian leadership, once they agree to this agreement, it is political suicide, and it is more likely to cause real life killings. Therefore, the slogan of cutting off the security relationship is extremely high, but it still reserves space for negotiation in private. ; The rest of the Middle East countries have their own calculations, and the motivations behind them involve consideration of both US relations and their own business status. In the short term, the new peace plan will be difficult to implement, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will continue to stagnate.

Peace Plan for Politics

Trump’s proposal seems to mediate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but actually serves the respective political needs of US and Israeli leaders. Trump is currently embroiled in impeachment, and at this time, he has thrown diplomatic shocks, which can not only cover up his scandal, but also stabilize domestic sources of pro-Israel Christian evangelicals and other votes. Since Trump took office, he has repeatedly used the Israeli-Palestinian issue as a political public relations cash machine, first recognizing the internationally co-owned Jerusalem as Israel in 2018, and in 2019 proclaiming the Golan Heights as Israeli territory for Netanya Yahu urged a vote and recently proposed a new Middle East peace plan. Although he claims to have an ambitious strategy in the Middle East, the Israeli-Palestinian issue is obviously not considered.

Israel’s Netanyahu was caught in a corruption lawsuit, and at the same time he was burned by the internal situation. In April 2019, the Israeli right-wing party Likud won the 21st parliamentary election, but due to the failure of Netanyahu to form a cabinet, the parliament was subsequently dissolved; in September of that year, Israel held the 22nd parliamentary election again, and President Rivlin Authorized Netanyahu and center party blue-and-white leader Ganz to form a cabinet. Unexpectedly, the double defeat and the parliament disbanded again. The unsuccessful formation of the cabinet and the election of bribes made the people lose their confidence. Although Netanyahu agreed to all the terms in the plan, the people stood by indifferently. According to a poll released by the Israel Democracy Institute on the 3rd, up to 49.9% of Israelis believe that the “New Middle East Peace Plan” announced recently is not about drunkenness but to help Netanyahu in Vote for the parliamentary elections on March 2.

Looking back on the Palestinian side, President Mohammed Abbas made a clear rejection when the plan was announced, not only calling it “conspiracy” and “slaps of the century”, but also issued a strong statement on February 1 stating that it would cut off relations with the United States, Israeli security relations. However, after one day, all departments were still operating normally on February 2 as if nothing had happened, and it is still the case today. The reason is that Abbas’s intentions are not true, but are intimidating the United States and Israel. For many years, Israel has worked privately with Fatah, which formed the Palestinian government, outsourcing security operations and intelligence information to the latter, enabling it to reduce the risk of attacks on Israeli forces and citizens while maintaining order and suppressing rival Hamas. Therefore, “cutting off the security relationship” is like an ace hidden in the sleeve of Abbas. It can only be shouted that it cannot be used. Otherwise, the result is a large-scale Hamas rocket attack, which may also cause the current Palestinian Authority. Disintegration, when the dragons have no head, chaos will increase.

Bed and Breakfast in the Middle East

The new peace plan proposed by Trump is well known to all parties in the United States and Palestine, and it is difficult to implement it. But the response from the rest of the Middle East is interesting. Turkey’s Erdogan, due to the poor domestic economy and civil grievances, has implemented a series of tough diplomatic measures since last year, including invading northern Syria and sending troops to Libya. The short-term goal is to divert internal economic pressure and the long-term plan is to seize the Islamic world. Right after Iran has aggravated economic sanctions and unilaterally torn up its nuclear agreement, Iran has resumed its anti-US theme. With the assassination of Suleimani, the climax is now in full swing. Naturally, we must also criticize a few words.

In contrast, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and other Gulf nations applauded in favor of the fact that Saudi Arabia and the United States have always had a special political and economic cooperation relationship, and it is also one of the key points of Trump ’s strategy of “raising Israel and fighting against Iran”. The Pakistan issue is naturally the answer of the United States; the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have always been Saudi vassals. Although there are occasional differences of opinion, in principle, Saudi Arabia has always taken the lead. Egypt has paid a bitter price in several Middle East wars, so it has long been grateful to support Palestine. In addition, it also relies on the United States to provide arms and counter-terrorism financial aid. Naturally, it will not have much opinion on Trump’s move.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been going on for more than 70 years. Almost all the countries in the Middle East have been involved, but now it seems that the fatigue of all parties is already showing signs of enthusiasm. Even if the essence of the so-called new peace plan is the “Palestinian annexation plan”, there is no need to wait until the plan is implemented, and the annexation and casualties will be staged daily; the plan itself is just a product of various political calculations, and it is difficult to implement, not to mention, not to mention Israel and Palestine bring peace to the Middle East.

 

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