5 months ago

Forecast: China’s Economy to Decline Further Before Bouncing Back

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Despite a hopeful increase in consumer spending during the Chinese New Year holiday, China’s economic outlook remains uncertain as it approaches its annual Two Sessions meetings, according to Natixis economist Gary Ng. The country had its eyes set on a robust start to the year, using the significant holiday period as a barometer for economic recovery, especially with the Two Sessions meeting on the horizon on March 5, where the government will outline its growth targets for 2024.

Following a challenging year marked by a decline in exports for the first time in seven years and investment challenges due to real estate sector troubles, consumer spending has emerged as a crucial stabilizer for China’s economy. Initial data indicated an uptick in consumption over the holiday, with domestic travel and tourism spending surpassing pre-pandemic levels by 19% and 7.7%, respectively, as millions of Chinese participated in holiday festivities and travel.

However, the path to economic recovery is not straightforward. Despite the apparent surge, consumer spending per trip was 9.5% lower than in 2019, reflecting continued economic caution among the populace. This conservative spending pattern suggests that while there may be a willingness to invest in travel and services, overall consumer confidence remains shaky, with no clear signs of a sustained rebound.

China’s shift towards a consumption-driven economy, fueled by a growing middle class and income increases, has been significant. This transition away from an export-led growth model to one focused on investment in infrastructure and real estate has its challenges, especially as the economy grapples with slowing consumption amid deflationary pressures. The term “animal spirits,” referring to the confidence and expectations that influence consumer behavior, is notably absent as households opt to save rather than spend, anticipating future economic uncertainties.

The recent trend towards disinflation, characterized by cautious consumer behavior and reduced price growth excluding volatile food and energy prices, poses additional challenges. With industrial advancements and digitalization driving cost reductions, and supply outpacing demand, China faces the risk of further economic slowdown and the potential of exporting its overcapacity globally.

This economic environment particularly affects the middle class, which, despite comprising about 30% of the population, accounts for roughly half of total consumption. With a significant portion of this group burdened by mortgages, the disinflationary period coupled with slower income growth could lead to higher real interest rates and a dampened wealth effect, impacting overall spending habits.

In response, there are calls for the Chinese government to implement broader economic stimuli, focusing on both supply-side enhancements and demand-side measures such as tax incentives and reduced household costs. However, boosting consumer confidence and adjusting to policy shifts remains a complex task that will not yield immediate results. The property market, for example, continues to suffer despite efforts to revive it, highlighting the difficulty in restoring consumer trust.

Moreover, China’s economic strategy faces a delicate balance between ensuring national security and fostering growth. Reducing geopolitical tensions could alleviate household concerns and stimulate the economy, but such outcomes remain uncertain.

Ultimately, the revival of China’s economy hinges on rekindling consumer optimism and the “animal spirits” that drive spending. Despite a positive start to the year, the road to recovery is fraught with challenges, suggesting that the economy may face further difficulties before any significant improvement is realized.

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