The seventh week of a conflict that has claimed thousands of lives and unsettled global markets saw negotiations commence in Pakistan on Saturday, days after a fragile two-week ceasefire was announced. The United States delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance, and the Iranian delegation, headed by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, entered discussions amidst an already tenuous truce, further complicated by Israel’s ongoing actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon. These talks in Islamabad followed separate meetings between U.S. and Iranian officials with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, with Iran’s state-run news agency reporting that trilateral discussions began after certain Iranian preconditions, including a reduction in Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon, were reportedly met.
Details from the initial sessions remained sparse, with no immediate comment from the U.S. side. A Pakistani official, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the situation, indicated that talks were underway and progressing positively, though the physical arrangement of the delegations—whether in the same room or separate ones—was not confirmed. Tehran’s representatives, according to Iranian state television, reiterated elements of their prior proposals, presenting demands such as compensation for damage sustained from U.S.-Israeli strikes that initiated the conflict on February 28th, and the release of frozen Iranian assets, as “red lines” during their meetings with Sharif.
The human cost of the war has been substantial, with at least 3,000 fatalities in Iran, 1,953 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel, and over a dozen across various Gulf Arab states. Beyond the immediate casualties, the conflict’s economic repercussions have reverberated globally, largely due to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This critical maritime choke point has severely curtailed oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf, leading to a significant surge in energy prices worldwide. Infrastructure across at least half a dozen Middle Eastern nations has also sustained lasting damage.
Back in Tehran, residents expressed a mix of skepticism and hope regarding the negotiations. Weeks of airstrikes have left vast destruction across the nation of approximately 93 million people, leading many to believe that the path to recovery would be arduous. Amir Razzai Far, 62, articulated a common sentiment, noting that “Peace alone is not enough for our country, because we’ve been hit very hard, there have been huge costs.” Meanwhile, Israel continued its strikes in Lebanon, asserting that the ceasefire does not apply there, a point of contention with both Iran and Pakistan. The Lebanese state-run news agency reported at least three additional fatalities from these strikes.
Ahead of the talks, both U.S. and Iranian officials staked out their positions, issuing new demands and preconditions. President Donald Trump, through social media posts leading up to Saturday, asserted that Iranian officials possessed “no cards” for negotiation, adding, “The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!” He accused Iran of leveraging the Strait of Hormuz for extortion, stating on Friday that the strait would be reopened “with or without them.” On Saturday, Trump further claimed on social media that the U.S. had begun “clearing out” the strait, though the precise meaning of this statement, whether referring to reported mining activities or broader control efforts, remained unclear.
Vice President Vance, speaking on Friday, conveyed optimism about the negotiations but also issued a warning: “If they’re going to try and play us, then they’re going to find that the negotiating team is not that receptive.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, part of the delegation in Pakistan, previously stated that Tehran entered negotiations with “deep distrust” following earlier strikes on Iran during previous rounds of talks. Araghchi reiterated on Saturday that his country was prepared for retaliation should further attacks occur. The contrasting proposals from both sides underscored the significant chasm separating them. Iran’s 10-point plan sought a guaranteed end to the war, control over the Strait of Hormuz, and an explicit halt to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, a key regional ally. The U.S. countered with a 15-point proposal, focusing on restricting Iran’s nuclear program and reopening the strait.
The broader regional tensions remained high. Negotiations between Israel and Lebanon were slated to begin Tuesday in Washington, a development announced by Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s office despite the two nations lacking official diplomatic relations. Israel’s primary objective is for the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah, echoing a provision from a November 2024 ceasefire, though the feasibility of Lebanon’s army disarming the deeply entrenched militant group remains questionable. Israel’s insistence that the ceasefire with Iran does not extend to its conflict with Hezbollah, which joined the war in support of Iran early on, has repeatedly jeopardized the broader peace efforts. The day the Iran ceasefire was announced, Beirut was subjected to intense Israeli airstrikes, resulting in over 300 fatalities, marking the deadliest day in Lebanon since the war began. The Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for approximately a fifth of the world’s traded oil before the conflict, has seen its traffic dwindle from over 100 ships daily to just 12 since the ceasefire, a stark illustration of Iran’s strategic leverage. The spot price of Brent crude, reflecting the global energy market’s volatility, exceeded $94 on Saturday, representing more than a 30% increase since the war’s commencement. Iran had previously suggested charging ships for passage through the strait as part of a peace agreement, an idea widely rejected by nations including the United States and Oman.
