[China-US trade war] Goldman Sachs assets management short-term hard-to-reach agreement, but the global economy will not derail

The Sino-US trade war continues to talk and the market waits and sees whether the two countries can resolve the deadlock at the G20 summit in June. James Ashley, head of the international marketing strategy team at Goldman Sachs Asset Management Strategy Advisors, expects the negotiations between the two countries to continue for a long time, but remains optimistic about the global economic outlook.

Material agreement execution mechanism needs time negotiation

When James Ashley attended the press conference, he said that the global stock market has fluctuated in recent days, reflecting that the market has overestimated the risk of a renewed warming of the trade war. He pointed out that even if the two sides have reached a certain consensus, the implementation of the monitoring mechanism for the implementation of the agreement and the relevant laws are very complicated, and it is difficult to complete it in a short period of time. However, he analyzed that the existing tariffs have a relatively minor impact on the Sino-US economy, which will only slow down China’s economic growth by about 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points. The impact on the US economy is only half, and both China and the United States may launch stimulus measures. To make the actual impact even more insignificant.

Three factors help the global economy to improve

Shoqat Bunglawala, Head of Global Portfolio Solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific, believes that due to the decline in US interest rate hikes, the steady growth of the three major economies of China, the US and the EU, and the easing of the trade war situation, this year’s macro market The environment is still favorable. The Sino-US trade war is not enough to derail global growth, and the chance of a recession during the year is low.

James Ashley added that the short-term trade war news will inevitably affect the investment climate, the stock market may continue to fluctuate, the bank is still holding a wait-and-see attitude, but overall optimistic about the performance of the stock market this year.