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The impeacher Trump is just the main appetizer or will not come until the summer of 2020

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The public hearing of the much-anticipated impeachment case was officially opened on Wednesday (November 14). Due to the numerous witnesses and complicated plots of the “Tong Umen”, it is difficult for the Democratic Party to draw a story that can be understood in a few words. It has been difficult to kick Trump out of the White House’s impeachment case, and it seems that even the effect of convincing the public is difficult to achieve.

On Wednesday, in June, he retired, the US-based Ukrainian interim agency William Taylor and the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs George Kent attended the first impeachment public hearing of the House Intelligence Committee. Since the two people’s earlier closed-door confessions have long been publicized, the outside eyes only focus on the performance of the Democratic and Republican bipartisan members in front of the camera, and whether the two witnesses will present new information, stories, or slogans for publicity.

“Tong Umen” re-enacts “TongRu Gate”?

However, each person’s performance seems to make people’s expectations fall through. Adam Schiff, the chairman of the Democratic Intelligence Committee, spoke from the American fathers’ expectations of the president and the separation of powers, trying to inspire the audience’s noble patriotic morality; Republican minority committee leader Nunez ( Devin Nunes continued to speculate on the conspiracy theories of Uganda’s dark support for Hillary’s 2016 elections, and accused the impeachment of the Democratic Party’s “final attempt” to try to overturn the election results. The two parties are so replayed and old-fashioned.

The Republicans, led by Trump generals and Rep. Jim Jordan, have been questioning the many witnesses to Trump’s “inviting U.S. military aid and visiting the White House for a Ukrainian public investigation of Democrats.” The “interest exchange” is just a hearsay. No one has ever been able to prove that Trump had instructed his subordinates to do so.

This led to Taylor’s new material, saying that one of his subordinates had a conversation with Trump’s President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky on July 25th, with US Ambassador to the European Union Sunderland. (Gordon Sondland), while eating lunch, overheard Trump to ask “those investigations”, and Sunderland also pointed out that Trump “concerned about Biden’s investigation” more than Ukrainian affairs.

Although the subordinates will go to the National Assembly to give their doors closed on Friday (November 15th), it seems that the “eavesdropping” nature of the incident is difficult to prove that Trump had asked the subordinates to propose “interest exchanges” to Uzbekistan. And Sunderland, who will give evidence next week, has patched testimony before, and its credibility is also doubtful.

The hearings are not very topical, and the “Tongwumen” plot involves more and more people. It is increasingly difficult for the Democratic Party to publicize to the public that “Trump has committed the dismissal of the dismissal.” Although the Republican-controlled Senate will never agree to the impeachment allegations, “Tong Umen” as a propaganda card to break the Trump re-election strategy is likely to repeat the mistakes of the “TongRumen” investigation – democracy The party cannot expect the public to read more than four hundred pages of investigation reports, understand all the complex allegations, and then “maybe” be convinced that Trump has made mistakes.

Bolton’s late “returning carbine”

However, the historic case of impeachment (or Trump will be the third impeached US president in history) will probably be just an appetizer for the Democratic Party’s 2020 victory over the Trump campaign. Even the front dish was not delivered to the counter.

The climax of “Tongwumen” may occur in the last mile of the election between summer and autumn in 2020, and the protagonist may be the right-wing diplomatic hawk representative who was expelled by Trump in September and the former White House National Security Advisor. John Bolton.

After the news that Bolton had criticized the exchange of “Tong Umen” interests as “drug trade”, the outside world has been concerned about whether Bolton will turn his heart to the Trump White House in Congress to report a revenge. The House Democrats also invited Bolton to go to Congress to give evidence on Thursday (November 7), but he was absent from the hearing.

Oddly enough, Bolton’s representative lawyer sent a letter to the House Intelligence Committee on the following day (November 8), claiming that Bolton not only personally participated in many incidents around the “Tongwumen” mentioned in the hearing so far, but also participated in “a lot of Related, but there have been no meetings and talks mentioned in the hearing.” The move seems to be deliberately publicizing Bolton’s intelligence, and the media has begun to report that Bolton has very complete notes.

However, when asked if they would issue a subpoena to Bolton, the Democrats said they did not want to delay the time in the foreseeable lawsuit and claimed that they “who wish to hear Bolton’s evidence, but they have obtained from other witnesses. The evidence is sufficient.” The Democrats don’t seem to want to use Bolton’s ace to testify so quickly. However, the impeachment case is expected to pass through the House of Representatives before Christmas.

On the other hand, the Associated Press quoted publishers as saying that Bolton had signed a $2 million book-issuing contract with a book seller, and that the booksellers were former FBI director James Comey and the White House. Anonymous’s two publishers criticizing Trump books.

Judging from the above events, the Democratic Party’s wishful choices on the abacus are coming out.

The Democratic Party’s most perfect campaign script

First of all, the impeachment case is just an aperitif. It is a good thing to pull down some of Trump’s voters’ basics, but its main purpose is to seize the headlines of US political news, make Trump’s last-minute domestic policy difficult, and through the media. Constant reports have made people probably aware of the ins and outs of the “Tongwumen” scandal.

From the current rush of the House of Representatives, the House of Representatives meeting will probably pass the formal impeachment provisions before Christmas, and then send the impeachment case to the Republican-controlled Senate for trial. The Republican Party is expected to veto the impeachment case in early 2020 because the impeachment case requires at least 20 Republican senators to support it. The Republican Party is expected to veto the impeachment case in early 2020, leaving the “Tongwumen” controversy.

Since the Democratic presidential primaries will be officially launched in February until June, the end of the impeachment case at the beginning of the year, just leaving the headlines of political news headlines, let the media focus on the Democratic Party primary elections, as free publicity. Although the candidates will criticize each other when they attack Trump, the so-called “no propaganda is bad propaganda”, and getting attention is better than no one cares. At this time, Trump’s term of office will be exhausted, and it is difficult to speculate on major events. It seems that he can only stay on the edge of political news. This may be the appetizer on the Democratic election menu.

When the Democratic presidential candidate is released, the Republican Party will concentrate on speculating on the weakness of this person (Biden’s greed; Sanders’ age, health and socialism; Warren’s left-wing policy, increased spending and unclear resources, etc.) . However, at the moment it is just the time for Bolton to explode the inside of Trump’s book – the hottest market will be good; if Trump fails, the book will be outdated.

Bolton’s masterpiece and a series of public relations activities from the book just re-suppressed the “Tongwumen” scandal and other White House secrets. On the one hand, the Democratic Party can overshadow the Republican Party’s public opinion offensive. A good government may change the time and the White House personnel will find their own way, which may lead to other insiders. At this point, the Democratic Party can take the medicine and repeat the “Hillary Mail Gate” that Trump has been speculating in 2016. With his own way, he will also cure his own body.

Although Bolton has always been incompatible with the ideology of the Democratic Party, Bolton was dismissed by Trump because of foreign policy differences. After the “Tongwumen” incident, Bolton was praised by many liberal media as principled and judged. Force officials, in line with the Democratic Party’s increasingly tough foreign policy, there is room for both sides to cooperate implicitly. According to NBC’s report, Bolton recently criticized Trump in a closed-door speech to the financial industry. I only know how to use diplomacy to engage in diplomacy, and warned that if Trump is re-elected, the United States may withdraw from NATO and other international organizations and embark on the path of isolationism.

This set of Democratic election scripts seems to be seamless, but there are so many variables, whether the facts will develop like this, the future is worth paying attention to. After all, Trump’s stay is not just a question of the United States.


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