Todd Bishop
Rating agency Fitch confirmed Hong Kong’s long-term credit rating as “AA+” and its outlook is stable. The report also mentions the development of the Dawan District, and there are also references to the fugitives regulations.
Fitch said Hong Kong’s rating benefits from extremely strong public and external funding, high income levels, and flexible and flexible economic support. However, it is also constrained by China’s integration with lower ratings, while China’s rating is currently A+, Outlook For stability.
The report pointed out that Hong Kong’s obvious advantage is that public finance has an advantage. Under the economic slowdown, fiscal policy can still become active.
After the occupation movement, more accusations of Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy are eroded
Fitch mentioned that the recent fugitive offender’s regulations have been controversial, causing debates about “the erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy under one country, two systems.” The report pointed out that since the “Occupy Movement” in 2014 and the failure of the Legislative Council to promote the general election of Hong Kong Chief Executives, more and more similar accusations have been made in recent years.
China-Hong Kong system and supervision in Dawan District are highly coordinated or autonomous
In addition, Fitch also pointed out that the integration of the “Dawan District” will not narrow the rating of China and Hong Kong. There are significant differences in governance standards, the rule of law, the policy framework and the business and regulatory environment.
However, Fitch pointed out that the development of the Greater Bay Area needs to strengthen the coordination of the institutional and regulatory framework, which will weaken the level of autonomy in Hong Kong and ultimately lead to the reassessment of the differences between China and Hong Kong.
Under the Sino-US trade friction, Hong Kong’s role as a global trade intermediary is likely to affect Hong Kong’s economy. However, it does not believe that the situation in China and the United States will undermine the advantages of Hong Kong’s basic foreign trade balance sheet.
Fitch expects Hong Kong’s economic growth this year to be only 1.6%, far below the 2 to 3% level estimated by the Hong Kong government.
