Todd Bishop
The election of the 2020 presidential election in Taiwan is gradually heating up. With the coming of the Kuomintang primary election, the outside world is paying more and more attention to whether Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe will stand for election.
In particular, Ke Wenzhe’s performance and speech in the “Twin City Forum” in July 2019 was like a “pre-presidential candidate.” Although Ke Wenzhe always said that he “does not know”, he will stand for election. “Ducking in the water”, I can’t help but think that he should have made up his mind. Perhaps for Ke Wenzhe, the timing is not yet mature is always the main reason for him to hesitate.
The 2020 presidential election is not only a battle that can be won by polls or online popularity, but grassroots mobilization and influence are actually the key to determining the outcome. In the past, “Ke Jiajun” or Ke Wenzhe helped the platform, regardless of whether the People First Party participated in the election of 2018 “Nine in One”, Xu Xinying, who was elected to the Hsinchu County, or Hong Shiqi, who was elected to the Taipei MP, or Chen Siyu, who was elected by the 2019 Taipei legislator. None of them has achieved the situation of “beyond the blue-green”, but it has been the situation of “blue-green killing”.
As Ke Wenzhe is elected, it must be a “three-legged” situation. A similar situation can be used as a reference for the 2000 presidential election. The Democratic Progressive Party Chen Shui-bian still needs 4.97 million after the former Kuomintang’s Soong Chu-yu’s “Party Vote”, with about 39.3% support to win. In other words, regardless of the number of voters, for Ke Wenzhe, at least 40% of the polls in the “three-legged” situation can be “winning”, otherwise it will be a high-risk investment.
On the other hand, the results of the polls and the final vote may often have a gap. It is because there is no way for politicians to completely grasp the supporters’ intentions, that is, the mobilization of grassroots public opinion, including the head of the village and the influential “heads”. “.”
Ke Wenzhe has criticized and complained about the election system several times. Even if he invests in the 2020 presidential election, he can use small fundraising methods to reduce his expenses. However, in the character of Ke Wenzhe, he will not venture into a “unsure.” The victory of winning. For a long time, the predicament of “Ke Jiajun” has been in the situation of “blue-green killing” and it has not been able to effectively mobilize grassroots public opinion.
On July 9, 2019, Taipei City Councillor Zhong Xiaoping first “opened the first shot” in response to this situation. Zhong Xiaoping announced his high-profile withdrawal from the Kuomintang. He will organize a 2020 presidential election support for Ke Wenzhe and invite him to be the leader of the constituency. We joined.
This action of Zhong Xiaoping was mainly due to his defeat of Lin Yufang by 47% to 52% in the preliminary election of the Kuomintang Taipei Fifth District in June. Although Zhong Xiaoping is an incumbent member, in order to raise his political heights, he will not hesitate to quit the party and “betting” Ke Wenzhe in the form of “taking a gun to vote”, which is to be elected for the 2020 legislator election.
In other words, Zhong Xiaoping is actually a “loser” of the legislator’s primary election, but he still has strong electoral influence, and the situation with the clock is not an isolated case. For those candidates who failed in the party’s primary qualifiers, since they have invested considerable resources in the early stage to build momentum and mobilize, although “recognition and killing” is an option, the party’s decision to rely on Ke Wenzhe will once again challenge 2020. The opportunity of the “political renewal” of the committee is still an attractive option.
The “lost puzzle” of Ke Wenzhe’s participation in the 2020 presidential election may be to organize the “Loss Alliance” and invite them to “take a gun to fight” to meet the “blue and green killing” situation again.
