Since the implementation of the economic reform in 1987, Vietnam’s society and economy have undergone profound changes and achievements. The success of this country of more than 90 million people has gradually lifted out of poverty and expanded the middle class. In recent years, Vietnam’s economy has maintained rapid growth. Together with India and Indonesia, it is regarded as the three most worthwhile investment sectors in Asia. There are even opinions that the current Vietnam is China 20 years ago, full of investment opportunities and growth potential. It is expected to become “the next China.” After all, is this wishful thinking really easy to start?

(This is the second part of the series “Qian Jin Vietnam”)

Although, as mentioned above, all the positive factors have injected a strong boost into the future development of Vietnam. However, in June of this year, a scandal of the famous Vietnamese home appliance company Asanzo once again caused the outside world to be used as a “washing place”. “s concern. This electrical appliance brand, which is packaged in “Japanese technology” and “Made in Vietnam”, has been exposed. Apart from labels, most of the production and manufacturing is actually from China. The company’s popular products such as TV sets, mobile phones, and microwave ovens are actually manufactured by factories in Zhejiang or Guangdong. The company only ordered goods from China at a low price, and then imported them with the label “Made in Vietnam” for sale.

Founded in 2014, the Vietnamese company took the lead in the domestic market with an annual production capacity of 500,000 TV sets in just two years, and then entered Cambodia, Laos, South Korea and even Cuba. After the incident was exposed, in addition to causing domestic consumers to be awkward, it also attracted the attention of the United States in response to the “washing of the place of production” in Vietnam in response to Chinese tariffs under the Sino-US trade war. The US government has hinted that Vietnam may become the target of sanctions after China.

This phenomenon has become commonplace because the past regulations did not require the indication of the origin of the goods, which led to the phenomenon of random labeling of the place of origin in the industry, and the incentives of the Sino-US trade war. In response to these trade frauds, the Ministry of Industry and Commerce of Vietnam has submitted a new draft regulation on the indication of the origin of goods, indicating that certain goods can be labeled as “Made in Vietnam” if they are produced exclusively in Vietnam or entirely in Vietnam, such as plants and products, mines. Products, etc. If the goods are finally processed in Vietnam, they must meet the conditions of domestic value-added ratio of more than 30% in order to mark “Made in Vietnam”. The new regulations of Vietnam will effectively curb the current “washing place”.

“At least a part of China is available”

The issue of washing the place of origin, the study of Vietnamese culture and the relationship between Vietnam (Laos) and Cambodia (Cambodia), as a Vietnamese lecturer at several Taiwanese universities, told Hong Kong 01 that Vietnam’s current challenges are “Education will have the greatest impact. The current dilemma of the country is that the industry is not diversified and the ability to innovate is not enough.” For this reason, even if Vietnam’s economy grows, manpower continues to flow. She believes that Vietnamese people do not dislike their own country, but do not like the working environment in Vietnam. This requires more education and skills training to improve.

She also believes that the top priority is the environmental issue: “Under the high level of development, the environment will be sacrificed. If the manufacturer considers environmental factors, it will definitely increase the cost and finally reduce the willingness to invest.” Fortunately, the Vietnamese authorities have taken measures such as Many cultural attractions are classified as areas where factories are prohibited from camping; the Vietnamese government also attaches great importance to the water quality environment because aquatic products are important export goods.

The economic development of Vietnam is indeed very rapid. In addition to public facilities and infrastructure, the growth rate of consumption of e-commerce, cosmetics and leisure appliances is very high. The Qing Dynasty said: “This is the current situation in Vietnam. The country’s market is not big, but it is fine.” She believes that Vietnam will never become a second China, because Vietnam’s rise model relies on the consumption of a large number of middle class. Instead of the broad market to support. Investors interested in entering Vietnam must have psychological preparations to compete with locals.

Japan’s “Fuji Sankei Business Daily” pointed out at the beginning of last month that although Vietnam is highly anticipated, the actual conditions may not keep up. The failure of infrastructure construction to meet the ever-expanding demand, rising real estate prices, and shortage of talents in high-tech enterprises are all development problems that are emerging one after another. The Vietnamese business community believes that the global supply chain is complex and involves many participants and cannot move away from China at one time and five moments. In addition, Vietnamese Prime Minister Yan Chunfu warned earlier that the country may have an energy shortage crisis in 2021 and ordered officials to speed up the completion of stagnant power plant projects.

Although Vietnam’s idea of ​​replacing China is not realistic, the local has become a major country outside China, where manufacturers invest in it. Adam Sitkoff, executive director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hanoi, bluntly said: “No Southeast Asian countries have China, but Vietnam can at least get it. a part.”

Will only become the future…

She said that she believes that Vietnam will become the winner of the Sino-US trade war. The country is the first stop for Chinese funds to transfer to Southeast Asia: “Vietnam is a one-party dictatorship, but relatively free, and will not force the transfer of technology, The language of Roman Pinyin is also easier to learn.”

The Qing Dynasty also pointed out that Vietnam will only be the future of South Korea, Taiwan or Japan, and it is not possible to become China. She explained: “On the one hand, the background of the rise of the two is not the same; on the other hand, Vietnam itself is not a big country with a large population, and it is impossible to become a country with a vast consumer market and China Uni-European economic and trade system.” She believes that Vietnam At best, it can only become the “Indochina” (Editor: Indochina, especially the former French colonies, including Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos) regional power, and may be “military power, medium economy”, because Vietnam is bound to hold itself The advantage of “Indochina” must continue to strengthen the army, air, sea and air forces, and then have the means to counter China’s economic strength.

Excerpted from the 188th issue of “Hong Kong 01” Weekly (November 11, 2019) “”Qin Jin” Vietnam took the rise of China-US trade warfare? 》.


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