Todd Bishop
On the occasion of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese government, the topic of the highest leader Kim Jong-un’s visit to China has once again become one of the focuses of public opinion.
October 1st to 7th is not only the 70th National Day of China, but also the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and North Korea. On September 2nd, Chinese State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi held talks with Li Yonghao, member of the Political Bureau of the Korean Workers Party and Foreign Minister Li Yonghao at the Wanshoutai Assembly Hall in Pyongyang. And reached a consensus on the activities of the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
Wang Yi’s visit made public opinion begin to speculate that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will visit China on the day of the commemoration of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries (October 6). The speculation of public opinion is flying all over the sky, and the official Chinese answer is more fascinating.
On September 27, a South Korean journalist asked at the regular press conference of the Chinese Foreign Ministry: “To commemorate the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the DPRK, will Chairman Kim Jong-un visit Beijing or the northeastern region of China?”
In response, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Yu Shuang’s answer is very subtle. He said: “What I can tell you is that the two parties and the two countries maintain a fine tradition of friendly exchanges, which is conducive to maintaining regional peace and stability and to the proper settlement of relevant issues.”
There is no denial, and there is no direct recognition. The unspeakable answer makes the public opinion puzzled. In addition, the Yonhap News Agency quoted Beijing sources on September 25th. Recently, Tumen, Dandong and other border cities such as China and North Korea have strengthened security. Some opinions speculate that Kim Jong-un may visit China recently.
So, will Kim Jong-un visit China on October 6?
Taking into account the recent situation, Kim Jong-un is likely to visit China on October 6. A senior diplomat of the Korean Embassy in China revealed to the 01 reporter that the possibility of South Korea’s pre-judgment of Kim Jong-un’s visit to China on October 6 was very high. For this reason, the embassy staff and the Korean correspondent in Beijing chose to give up. China’s 11th National Day holiday, in preparation for Kim Jong-un’s visit.
The Korean Embassy in China concluded that it was not without any basis. This was based on the transformation of the US-DPRK relationship.
Since Trump and Kim Jong-un met in Panmunjom, South Korea in June, they broke the deadlock in the US-DPRK talks and the relationship between the two countries has turned. Kim Jong-un sent a letter to Trump in August 2019, proposing a third summit meeting between the DPRK and the United States, and invited Trump to visit Pyongyang.
On August 9, Trump announced on Twitter that he had received a “very good letter” from Kim Jong-un. On September 12, Trump had expressed his willingness to meet with Kim Jong-un later this year in order to restart the denuclearization negotiations, suggesting that the Gold Special Committee may be able to make a trip this year.
Trump’s response to Kim Jong-un’s invitation on September 16 was also very subtle. He declined to comment on whether he had received an invitation from Kim Jong-un. When asked if he would like to visit North Korea, Trump said that he may not visit North Korea in the short term, and the conditions are not ready. However, Trump said he is willing to visit North Korea “sometime in the future”, depending on the progress. Trump also said that he is convinced that Kim Jong-un is also willing to come to the United States.
The signs of Trump’s interaction with Kim Jong-un are enough to show that the US-DPRK negotiations will see new progress soon. Kim Jong-un visited Beijing from the first meeting of the Korean and Korean heads of state in 2018. Before the meeting between the US and North Korean heads of state in 2018, Kim Jong-un’s visit to China, and finally the meeting between Kim Jong-un and Xi Jinping before the meeting of the heads of the US and North Korea in Vietnam, the DPRK nuclear issue The key node, Kim Jong-un will negotiate with Xi Jinping. Such “conventions” have invisibly increased the possibility of this visit to China.
However, many public opinion also speculated that Kim Jong-un’s visit to China during his national circumstances is unlikely, and his reasons are mainly the following two points.
First of all, Wang Yi’s visit to the DPRK did not meet Kim Jong-un. If Kim Jong-un is going to visit China, as the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi’s visit to North Korea in September is very likely to prepare for Kim’s visit. According to diplomatic etiquette, Kim Jong-un should meet with Wang Yi. However, the official news of China and the DPRK did not mention that Kim Jong-un met with Wang Yi.
Second, the Sino-US game has influenced the process of US-DPRK negotiations. Today, a new round of high-level trade negotiations between China and the United States will be restarted in Washington in the first week after the National Day. Based on the influence of the Sino-US game on the US-DPRK negotiations, Kim Jong-un really wants to negotiate with Xi Jinping about the US-DPRK negotiations, and should wait for Liu He to end the negotiations and return to China. This will not only make it easier to negotiate for the US and the DPRK, but also This can be used to put pressure on the United States.
